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What Gavin Forgot To Tell You

January 18, 2015

By Paul Homewood




David Rose picks up the story about the “hottest year” claims.



The Nasa climate scientists who claimed 2014 set a new record for global warmth last night admitted they were only 38 per cent sure this was true.

In a press release on Friday, Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’.

The claim made headlines around the world, but yesterday it emerged that GISS’s analysis – based on readings from more than 3,000 measuring stations worldwide – is subject to a margin of error. Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all.

Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much.

As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted Nasa thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent. However, when asked by this newspaper whether he regretted that the news release did not mention this, he did not respond.

Another analysis, from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project, drawn from ten times as many measuring stations as GISS, concluded that if 2014 was a record year, it was by an even tinier amount.

Its report said: ‘Numerically, our best estimate for the global temperature of 2014 puts it slightly above (by 0.01C) that of the next warmest year (2010) but by much less than the margin of uncertainty.

‘Therefore it is impossible to conclude from our analysis which of 2014, 2010, or 2005 was actually the warmest year… the Earth’s average temperature for the past decade has changed very little.’

Scientists disagree over its significance, but there is little doubt that the rapid warming of the 1980s and early 1990s has slowed – although greenhouse gas emissions have surged.

Bob Ward, of the Grantham Institute on Climate Change, said the new figures showed the notion that global warming had ‘stopped’ was a ‘myth’, although it had ‘temporarily slowed’. Since 1951, he added, the long-term trend was for warming of 0.12C per decade, and in his view, it would ‘pick up again unabated’ if emissions continued to rise.

However, if the long-term rate is 0.12C per decade, this would mean the world would be 1C or so warmer by the end of the century, not 4C-5C as some have claimed.

Climate sceptics insisted that the new figures showed the warming ‘pause’ had continued. Dr David Whitehouse, of the Global Warming Policy Forum, said ‘there has been no statistically significant warming trend since 1997’ – because the entire increase over this period was smaller than the error margin.

Dr Ed Hawkins, associate professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said the past 15 years had seen a slightly slower rate of warming.

But he added: ‘You have to take a longer view, because 15 years is too short a period. We expect natural fluctuations, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar output to sometimes slow and sometimes increase warming rates.’  



 Data: Gavin Schmidt, of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, admits there's a margin of error


This is the same Gavin Schmidt who has previously been heavily criticised by prominent scientists:

In 2009, Atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a prominent scientist from the Netherlands, wrote a scathing denunciation of Schmidt in which he said he was “appalled” by Schmidt’s “lack of knowledge” and added, “Back to graduate school, Gavin!”


Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. publicly rebuked Schmidt for “erroneously communicating the reality of the how the climate system is actually behaving.”


Israeli Astrophysicist Nir Shaviv has also been critical. “The aim of [Schmidt’s] is not to engage a sincere scientific debate. Their aim is to post a reply full of a straw man so their supporters can claim that your point ‘has been refuted by real scientists at’


It is also the same Gavin Schmidt who emailed Michael Mann about the release of climate data under FOI laws:


Frankly, I would simply put the whole CRU database (in an as-impenetrable-as-possible form) up on the web site along with a brief history of it’s provenance (and the role of the NMSs) and be done with it. If specific NMS contracts forbid posting of their raw data, then he should remove the ones that he contractually can’t post and direct peoples attentions to the NMS’s concerned. Why should Phil be the fall guy for nutty ‘commercial’ restrictions imposed by various governments?


 The last thing we can expect to hear from Gavin is the truth.

  1. January 18, 2015 3:07 pm

    “Dr Ed Hawkins, associate professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said the past 15 years had seen a slightly slower rate of warming.”

    Anybody can cherry-pick their dates. If Dr Ed Hawkins had said “…the last 14 years…” he would get the RSS satellite record and the Hadley Sea Surface temperature record both showing global temperature falling while GISS is reporting a slight rise in temperature.

    Since both satellite and ocean temperatures are more reliable as indicators of global climate than land-based records, that means either that he has not kept up to date or that he, like many others, has been gulled by the propaganda. .

    You can plot the graph yourself by entering this URL:

    • January 18, 2015 3:33 pm

      Yes, 15 years takes us back to the big La Nina of 1999/2000

  2. January 18, 2015 4:03 pm

    One thing is 100% certain – you won’t get an honest, totally unbiased and not misleading answer from any of the UK climate “scientists”.

  3. manicbeancounter permalink
    January 18, 2015 4:52 pm

    You never get the full picture. Not only has warming slowed or even ground to a halt, but the alleged ultimate cause of warming – human greenhouse gas emissions – has accelerated.
    According to to the CDIAC figures that Paul Homewood often refers to, global emissions (in million tonnes of carbon) with the percentage increase on the earlier figure were as follows:-
    1990 6127
    2000 6765 10.4%
    2010 9167 35.5%

    If you take the pause as starting from 1997, then from 1997 to 2013, human emissions increased by 48%. For 1981 to 1997 – the same length of time and covering most of the warming phase – human emissions increased by just 29%.

  4. January 18, 2015 4:59 pm

    Thanks, Paul. And thanks to David Rose for reporting the facts.

  5. Philip permalink
    January 18, 2015 7:52 pm

    The Global Warming Fraud is being used ton create a World Government which is scheduled to start in December 2015 at the Paris Climate Conference.

  6. January 18, 2015 8:02 pm

    Reblogged this on the WeatherAction News Blog.

  7. us1patriot permalink
    January 19, 2015 1:49 am

    38% chance of being right is the new “science is settled”!

  8. January 20, 2015 2:56 am

    Reblogged this on Globalcooler's Weblog.

  9. Brian H permalink
    January 20, 2015 8:32 am

    Hm, does “forgot” mean the same as “was careful not to”?

  10. Brian H permalink
    January 20, 2015 8:34 am

    Climate Science will end up as a graphic illustration and education for many about what “margin of error” really means …


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