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Philip Eden On January Trends

January 24, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

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Another interesting column from Philip Eden in last week’s Telegraph.

 

 

He makes a couple of points that are worth exploring.

 

While January temperatures have certainly warmed up since the 18thC, there has been little change since the early 20thC, other than the drop between 1940 and 1970.

This can be seen on the Met Office graph below. (Both minimum and maximum trends follow a similar pattern).

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

He also comments on the increase in sunshine hours since 1876, largely as a consequence of cleaner air in urban areas, but also seen in rural areas too.

 

The Met Office data only goes back to 1929, but we can see the trend:

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

 

As he points out, wetter winters tend to be warmer, and we can see a similar pattern on the rainfall graph, as on the temperature one above. The early and later years were both wetter and warmer, in contrast to the mid 20th ones.

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

We would logically expect sunshine hours to have reduced, as the climate has become wetter, yet the opposite is the case. This seems to be strong evidence that cleaner air, even across rural areas, has played a large part in the increase.

The question is  – what impact has this factor had on temperatures? It is arguable that the effect is neutral during winter, as the sunshine is not strong enough, or out long enough, to counter the cooling effect of clear skies at night.

For the rest of the year, however, increased sunshine would surely lead to higher temperatures? 

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8 Comments
  1. January 24, 2015 3:23 pm

    1. “As (Philip Eden) points out, wetter winters tend to be warmer,…”

    Or does it mean warmer winters tend to be wetter?

    2. “We would logically expect sunshine hours to have reduced, as the climate has become wetter, yet the opposite is the case. This seems to be strong evidence that cleaner air, even across rural areas, has played a large part in the increase.

    The question is – what impact has this factor had on temperatures? It is arguable that the effect is neutral during winter, as the sunshine is not strong enough, or out long enough, to counter the cooling effect of clear skies at night.”

    But the rainfall-bearing clouds provide substantial heat-insulation during winter nights – ~4-6K worth.

    • January 24, 2015 4:57 pm

      Mercifully, during a global cooling period, uk has the benefit of the real gh effect….so it is slightly warmer because it gets more clouds. Makes for mild winters and awfully wet summers.

    • January 24, 2015 5:28 pm

      Yes, it’s a trade off between warmer days and cooler nights with clearer skies.

      The temperature graph suggests that the extra sunshine has not had an effect either way in winter.

  2. Mikky permalink
    January 24, 2015 4:03 pm

    I suspect that most of the global warming scare is based on a trend to milder winters and milder nights. Nothing scary in that (in fact just the opposite), so like politicians lets quote only a statistic that misleads, i.e. the annual mean, and describe it as the world getting “hotter”.

    To me it is only getting hotter if summer maxima are increasing, no sign of that where I live in the UK.

  3. John F. Hultquist permalink
    January 24, 2015 5:21 pm

    Cleaner air. More sunshine. More Vitamin D in the populace. Less snow to shovel. More CO2 in the air. Gardens grow better. Heating degree hours less.
    What’s not to like?

    Mikky writes “… the global warming scare is based on a trend …

    The scare is based on (#1): incomplete, thus faulty, assumptions about how Earth’s atmosphere works. This is shown by the totally basakwards phrase “green house gases.” And (#2): and risen to a frenzy by the lubrication of guilt of the affluent progressives and their basement dwelling children.

  4. January 25, 2015 12:24 pm

    Congratulations on becoming one of the accepted authorities on the AGW debunking. Chris Bookers article in the Sunday Telegraph treats your blogs as one of his main sources.

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