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How Much Do Temperature Adjustments Affect Global Temperatures?

February 9, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

While we’re on the topic of temperature adjustments, it is worth revisiting this paper from 2012.

 

image 

http://www.itia.ntua.gr/getfile/1212/2/documents/EGU2012-956-1.pdf

 

 

It must be pointed out that it is the old GHCN Version 2 which they are working on, though adjustments such as the Arctic ones did not seem to appear till Version 3.

Nevertheless, what the authors claim is that adjustments account for 0.3C of the 0.7C of warming recorded in the last century. Certainly not the insignificant amounts usually claimed.

 

One of the points they make is that corrections may introduce bigger errors than the errors they try to remove. 

 

They conclude:

 

image

http://www.itia.ntua.gr/getfile/1212/1/documents/2012EGU_homogenization_1.pdf

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11 Comments
  1. February 9, 2015 4:06 pm

    Thanks, Paul.
    It seems worst than I thought, we are sinking faster in the green slime.
    E. Steirou and D. Koutsoyiannis would not write such a piece today, least they would be stoned to death. 😉

  2. February 9, 2015 4:31 pm

    Thanks for giving this paper the wider exposure it deserves.

  3. February 9, 2015 5:54 pm

    What paper? It’s a not peer-reviewed conference abstract.

  4. February 9, 2015 8:00 pm

    As Jan says, it isn’t a paper. And it’s a bit like the posts here, just picking out a few at a time. They looked at 182, which is better, but there are 7280 in the collection. No wonder it hasn’t appeared in a journal, where people like Lawrimore have done it properly.

    Typical is their quoting of a 0.3C difference made to the land stations, and inflating it to a difference to the global average. Lawrimore et al get about 0.2C change at most for land only, but that would affect the land index to that extent. The land index is rarely cited, especially by sceptics, as it has risen markedly. The usually quoted global index is affected by at most 0.05°C.

    • A C Osborn permalink
      February 9, 2015 8:16 pm

      Lawrimore 2011, a lot has changed since then.

    • February 9, 2015 11:00 pm

      I don’t regard nearly half of the Arctic as being ” a few”

    • February 10, 2015 4:51 am

      So, if they don’t test the algorithm on every station, the study is invalid? Or how many stations do make a valid study?
      What and where is the derivation of the usually quoted index? The Lawrimore paper cites uncertainty in the monthly trends of 0.1°-0.3° and says “that there have been efforts to quantify the uncertainty” for land and ocean measurements, not that the uncertainty has been quantified.

    • Hoi Polloi permalink
      February 10, 2015 12:12 pm

      Dr.Stokes, I thought you were too busy to review M&F? Yet you find the time to follow this site every day?

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