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Mikey Discovers Ocean Cycles!

February 27, 2015
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 

 

image

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/scientists-now-know-why-global-warming-has-slowed-down-and-it%E2%80%99s-not-good-news-for-us/ar-BBhZW8r?ocid=iehp

 

Climate “scientist”, Michael Mann, has discovered that the 17 year pause in global warming is due to “internal variability”, particularly ocean cycles. In a paper written with a Byron Somebody, and someone called Sonya, he finds:

 

That internal variability is found in the natural cycles of temperature change that occur over years or even decades in the oceans, like El Niño and La Niña. There are others, like the “Atlantic multidecadal oscillation” and the “Pacific decadal oscillation”…

There is an oceanic tug-of-war between the two systems. Sometimes the ocean cycles worked together to suck heat or burp it skyward—sometimes their push-pull led to a draw.

 

Welcome to the party, Mikey! Some of us have been explaining about this for years.

There is just one slight snag with your explanation. We have been in the warm phase of the AMO since around 1997, and this is actually helping to keep global temperatures up.

As can be seen from the ESRL graph below, when the AMO and PDO moved in concert from cold to warm, first in the 1920’s and 30’s, and later in the 1980’s and 90’s, global temperatures went up.

And when they both turned cold together between the 1940’s and 70’s, temperatures fell.

Currently the cold PDO and warm AMO are helping to offset each other. With the negative PDO likely to last another two decades, and the AMO likely to head south (not literally!) soon, we can expect another 30 years of pause, if not outright cooling.

 

tsgcos.corr.86.182.234.215.57.6.51.16

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=20&year1=&year2=&itypea=0&axistype=1&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=1&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

 

 

 

 

When do I collect my Nobel Prize?

19 Comments
  1. February 27, 2015 5:36 pm

    To paraphrase Trenberth

    “It’s a “travesty” that they can’t account for the lack of excuse at the moment.”

    These El Niño, La Niña, “Atlantic multidecadal oscillation” and “Pacific decadal oscillation”, are they recently discovered? Or had they simply been omitted from all those climate-soothsaying models?

  2. February 27, 2015 6:30 pm

    Reblogged this on CraigM350 and commented:
    That snapshot of the MSN article is revealing. Paragraph one says the pause is a ‘meme’ of sceptics. Why is the ownership one way when established ‘science’ (including the Met Office) has widely discussed and are not far approaching 101 reasons for. Tamsin Edwards must be party to the ‘meme’ – “The pause is a grand ‘whodunnit’ at the edge of our scientific understanding”
    http://blogs.plos.org/models/pause-for-thought/
    Paragraph 2 of the MSN article all but confirms the pause. Am I missing something here? Are we seriously the only ones pointing to the trees in the woods? Shameful really.
    As an aside it’s interesting to see that large spike in the very late 1870s. Tim Channon’s mentioned it before.

    • February 27, 2015 6:36 pm

      It seems pretty common for some warmists to insist there is no leveling of temperatures, in spite of what the 97% of their “experts” may be saying. They just can’t give up the idea that temperatures are rising even if it’s .01 degrees and statistically insignificant. Even pointing out how many climate scientists acknowledge the pause does no good.

    • emsnews permalink
      February 27, 2015 11:37 pm

      Simple: today the EU government had to ‘redesign’ their beloved CO2 ‘cap and trade’ scheme whereby thin air is taxed heavily as ‘pollution’.

      The market selling the right to consume coal or gas has collapsed in value so the EU government had to rig the market to make the existing credits ‘more valuable’ by killing off over a billion credits!!!!

      This is why our rulers cling to ‘global warming’ like rats on a life raft after they chew through the hull and sink the ship.

      • February 28, 2015 12:15 am

        The pyramid of lies is built on shifting sands however you have to reluctantly applaud their financial ingenuity and duplicity.

      • February 28, 2015 12:24 am

        Rats are pretty good swimmers!

        You’re right. The system, or rather pyramid, being supported has alot of money and effort invested. In a peverse way you have to admire their financial ingenuity and duplicity. Self preservation or not it takes so much effort to keep the facade up. Which in itself leaves to some unsettling conclusions; they are psychopaths/narcissists, faithful believers in the omnipotence of the system, or are so deep in and know it will kick off if the truth ever gets out. Now is this by design or a hive mindset that comes from power? Even playing Devil’s advocate I’m really struggling to come up with benign reasons.

  3. February 27, 2015 6:34 pm

    Paul – OT

    You should have my email from the comment. Would like your advice on a response I got from the purveyors of ‘the science’ but would obviously prefer to do it off comments. Be very interested in your take. Thanks.

  4. Colin Wright permalink
    February 27, 2015 6:55 pm

    Mann, in his book ‘The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars’, actually claims to have both helped to discover and name the AMO. He writes, “It would even get a name: the “Atlantic multidecadal oscillation” (AMO) – a moniker I coined off the cuff in a phone interview with science writer Dick Kerr.” Perhaps this latest paper is another “off the cuff” effort on his part, something he dreamt up on the spur of the moment.

  5. lance permalink
    February 27, 2015 7:27 pm

    I’m 97% convinced (“extremely likely”) you will get a Nobel prize…..(in other words, not very good!)

  6. February 27, 2015 7:36 pm

    I am sure you’ll need to share the Nobel Prize with Bob Tisdale? Bob has written books on ocean cycles, and blogged consistently for years. Another stalwart fellow in my view.

    • Retired Dave permalink
      February 27, 2015 7:55 pm

      Totally agree.

    • 1saveenergy permalink
      February 27, 2015 8:40 pm

      As contributors to this blog, we can all claim a Nobel Prize…(you just need ‘Photoshop’) just like Mr Mann !!

  7. Retired Dave permalink
    February 27, 2015 7:56 pm

    Nobel Prize Paul???????

    NO – You have to talk total sh**e to get one of those or invent the internet.

  8. john cooknell permalink
    February 27, 2015 9:12 pm

    In my view, following the logic of Climate Science to date, the next stage for the Science is to adjust the Climate record for “natural variability” , as the peer reviewed science confirms such adjustments are now necessary.

    I take comfort in the knowledge that after such adjustments are made, the model predictions of continued catastrophic human induced warming will be confirmed. We can then all relax and be sure it is all our fault.

    Not quite sure what is our fault, but something must be!

  9. KTM permalink
    February 27, 2015 10:40 pm

    I said it before and I’ll say it again, when the main argument in favor of CO2 as the globe’s thermostat is that “We understand all the natural climactic wiggles so anything unexpected must be man-made with CO2 as the prime suspect” it’s stunning to think how little they actually understand of all the natural climactic wiggles.

    They can’t even HINDCAST temperatures, what makes them think they can forecast them?

  10. emsnews permalink
    February 28, 2015 12:13 am

    They are doing this for the CO2 tax money.

    Nothing more than that. This is why the rich people who own our media and government are dead set on trying to convince us even as we literally freeze to death that we are going to die of super warm temperatures.

  11. JWood-the-other permalink
    February 28, 2015 12:48 am

    Mr. Mann is a silver tonged devil.

  12. johnmarshall permalink
    February 28, 2015 12:14 pm

    Bob Tisdale reports that the PDO is turning negative to join the AMO. Perhaps cooler sooner rather than later.

  13. February 28, 2015 10:42 pm

    Thanks, Paul.
    Look at Dr. Roy Spencer’s latest:

    From “On Natural Climate Variability and Climate Models” (Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D., Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville – UAH. February 27th, 2015), at http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/02/on-natural-climate-variability-and-climate-models/

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