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More Deception From Joe Romm

March 6, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/05/3630441/noaa-el-ni/

 

More misdirection from Joe Romm and NOAA.

 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced that the long-awaited El Niño has arrived. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says we now have “borderline, weak El Niño conditions,” and there is a “50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue” through the summer.

An El Niño is “characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific,” as NOAA has explained. That contrasts with the unusually cold temps in the Equatorial Pacific during a La Niña. Both are associated with extreme weather around the globe (though a weak El Niño like this will tend to have a muted effect). El Niños tend to set the record for the hottest years, since the regional warming adds to the underlying global warming trend. La Niña years tend to be below the global warming trend line.

If even a weak El Niño does persist through summer, 2015 will almost certainly top 2014 as the hottest year on record. But there is a good chance it will do so in any case (unless a La Niña forms). After all, 2014 was the hottest year on record even though there was no official El Niño during the year. It’s just hard to stop the march of human-caused global warming — without actually sharply cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

 

The reality is that we have had El Nino conditions since last April, which was why 2014 was warmer than average.

 

ts.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

There were many warnings that El Nino would strengthen over the NH winter, which is the norm. Whether it continues in its current weak state for the next few months remains to be seen. However, what is noticeable is that this episode follows on from a similar one in 2012.

The odds are that La Nina will soon follow.

 

Romm then goes on to show this graph, supposedly from NASA, purporting to show that there has been no significant change in temperature trends since 1998.

 

 

B7fQw2FIgAAr1gI.png large

 

 

The idea is frankly laughable, and it is difficult to believe that even GISS would attempt such nonsensical deception. Even finishing at the El Nino year of 2014, GISS’s own data show that temperature trends have been flat since 2001.

 

 

trend

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2014/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2001/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2001/to:2014/trend

8 Comments
  1. March 6, 2015 11:38 am

    Reblogged this on The Firewall.

  2. Bloke down the pub permalink
    March 6, 2015 11:42 am

    It should be remembered that an El Niño is natures way of moving heat to where it can more readily be lost to space.

  3. Green Sand permalink
    March 6, 2015 12:30 pm

    Its “El Nino Modoki” description;-

    http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/e/elnmodoki/about_elnm.html

    Jamstec have been discussing how it would develop from the weak El Nino of 2014 here:-

    http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

    Scroll back through the discussions.

    Also of interest will be the MO’s Glosea 5 February model iteration, at present it appears to be somewhat at odds with the rest:-

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/models/nino_summary_6.png?12

    I wonder how reactive it will be?

  4. TOnyM permalink
    March 6, 2015 3:02 pm

    2014 as the hottest year is also laughable. It beat NOAA’s last reported record year by .04 degrees! Does anyone relay believe that the surface temperature reporting devices are accurate to one-one hundredth of a degree or that they have enough surface coverage to make any kind of meaningful global temperature calculations? Since NOAA and GISS have a history of “adjusting” data without providing their adjustment algorithms for independent review, pretty much everything they say is suspect. In addition, the whole temperature data collection and statistical analysis methods are also dubious. Several peer reviewed papers have been written challenging the idea that there is any practical way to compute “average global temperature” for a complex thermodynamic system that is not in equilibrium and also that such a number even exists. .

  5. emsnews permalink
    March 6, 2015 3:28 pm

    Every year is Hottest Year EVAH for global warmists who had to change the name of their pet belief system from that term to ‘climate change’ due to it not warming up at all.

  6. March 6, 2015 3:42 pm

    Thanks, Paul.
    The current slight El Niño conditions have been in a down slope since their beginning.
    And the current Tropical Pacific SST map doesn’t show an ongoing El Niño.

  7. March 6, 2015 4:07 pm

    “If even a weak El Niño does persist through summer, 2015 will almost certainly top 2014 as the hottest year on record”. I learnt in adolescence that you should never waste your time reading journalism written in the future tense.

  8. AndyG55 permalink
    March 6, 2015 8:33 pm

    2015 to beat 2014 for hottest year…

    … not so much a prediction, but a memo sent to Gavin Schmidt. !

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