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Quiet Start To Tornado Season

March 18, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

 

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center on the unprecedented start to March for severe weather watches:

 

 

NORMAN, Okla. During a month when severe weather typically strikes, this March has been unusually quiet, with no tornado or severe thunderstorm watches issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center so far. And, National Weather Service forecasters see no sign of dramatic change for the next week at least.
“We are in uncharted territory with respect to lack of severe weather”, said Greg Carbin, SPC’s warning coordination meteorologist. “This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970.”
Since the beginning of 2015, the SPC has issued only four tornado watches and no severe thunderstorm watches, which is less than 10 percent of the typical number of 52 tornado watches issued by mid-March. The approximately 20 tornadoes reported since January 1 is well below the 10-year average of 130 for that time period.
There is no one clear reason to explain the lack of tornadoes, Carbin said. “We’re in a persistent pattern that suppresses severe weather, and the right ingredients — moisture, instability, and lift — have not been brought together in any consistent way so far this year.”
Forecasters expect a change soon, however. April and May are typically the busiest months for severe weather and tornadoes. Patterns can change in a few days, Carbin said, and it’s important to be prepared for severe weather when it occurs.
Analysis of the ten lowest and ten highest watch count years through the middle of March reveals little correlation to the subsequent number of tornadoes through the end of June. For example, early 2012 was particularly active with 77 watches issued through mid-March. The subsequent period through the end of June was unusually quiet for tornadoes with about 130 fewer EF1 and stronger tornadoes occurring than what would normally be expected. On the other hand, 1984, with a relatively low watch count of 28 through mid-March, became more active and by late June had about 100 EF1 and stronger tornadoes above the long-term mean of 285.

 

 

ptorngraph

11 Comments
  1. March 18, 2015 12:40 pm

    Clearly it’s down “climate change” and “extreme” lack of weather.

  2. Bloke down the pub permalink
    March 18, 2015 2:01 pm

    The insurance industry will be laughing all the way to the bank. Pump up premiums on the fear of climate change and then watch Gaia shrug.

  3. Green Sand permalink
    March 18, 2015 3:07 pm

    Smokin’ Joe references the “feeble” start but appears to be hinting at an above normal “active” tornado season mid April into May – about 10 mins in:-

    http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-march-14-2015

  4. March 18, 2015 5:45 pm

    If you have no weather, you also have no water……….
    This is predicted to happen increasingly [in America above 40 lat] as we are reaching the bottom of the sine wave for energy coming through the atmosphere.
    Conditions similar to the dust bowl drought are on the cards in about 6 or 7 years time….
    http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/dust_storms.shtml

  5. March 18, 2015 5:51 pm

    btw
    I meant to ask
    does anyone have any evidence at all of any droughts happening in the past in the UK?

    • March 18, 2015 7:32 pm

      The worst was 1975/6

      • March 18, 2015 7:55 pm

        Looking at the rate of warming in K/annum, the highest was 1972/3
        [the rate in 1995 was around zero]
        The highest rate of cooling will be reached around 2016.
        It is the change in the rate of warming / cooling that pushes the weather.
        Hence, you can look forward to a dry year around 2018/19
        Easy, if you know what the sun is doing, when…..

  6. TonyM permalink
    March 18, 2015 9:19 pm

    At least one good meteorologist, Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell.com, is convinced we will have a horrible April for tornadoes. He analyzes the coming weather patterns in tornado alley in his free Saturday video available at the website.

  7. March 22, 2015 8:39 pm

    We have not had any severe weather here because the dynamics have not been there, unlike March 1932. In mid-March 1993, the dynamics were there. This is what we got: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/remembering-the-1993-storm-of-the-century/18432. I’d never seen thundersnow before. Yep, it was cold then, too. Around here, it is April that you worry about, for the sun is high in the sky and the dynamics are often present. See: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=event_04031974. Once we get to May, typically the storm track is much farther north. That does not keep it from getting cold, here; for that happened in late May, 1974, where we saw mid and upper 30s F. for overnight lows.

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