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Rapid Recovery In Arctic Sea Ice Volume Back To 2006 Levels

March 23, 2015
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Ima Debatin’

 

screenhunter_8077-mar-23-06-20

 

 

Despite all of the headlines recently about “record low Arctic ice”, sea ice extent has actually been regrowing for the last two weeks, and is nearly back to where it was on 22nd February.

 

ssmi_ice_ext

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi_ice_area.png

 

Most of the shortfall against the 1981-2010 average is in the Sea of Okhotsk, which is utterly irrelevant as it always melts quickly anyway.

 

N_daily_extent

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

 

What is much more interesting though is the ice thickness and volume. According to PIOMAS, volume has been growing back rapidly in the last few years, and is “roughly back to 2006 levels.”

 

BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

 

Average ice thickness is also back to 2006 levels, and is higher than any other year since at this time of year. The reason is very simple – multi year ice has been steadily growing back after being blown out of the Arctic in 2007 and 2008.

 

 

Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png 

 

Figure5

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2014/09/melt-season-ending/

 

Most of the 3 year and older ice is around the Canadian Arctic, where it is unlikely to be going anywhere fast, When the next update is done at the end of this month, expect this multi year ice to be back to 2006 levels.

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15 Comments
  1. March 23, 2015 6:53 pm

    As I said, Gleisberg was right, 87-88 years for each weather cycle, 44 years for each half cycle of warming (1951-1995) and cooling (1995-2038) with some 5-7 years lag either way.
    Showing data from 1980 is part of the problem…..

  2. BBould permalink
    March 23, 2015 7:23 pm

    If the ice is thicker it should last longer during the summer melt off. We shall see. Perhaps things may be turning around.

    • AZ1971 permalink
      March 23, 2015 9:54 pm

      Thicker multi-year ice will last longer during the summer melt season. We also know that warmer waters cool faster and form ice more quickly, so in those areas which have melted in the North Atlantic the ice will reform faster. There’s a pattern in place that’s obvious from the charts above. Explaining WHY will be more problematic, however.

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        March 24, 2015 11:07 am

        “We also know that warmer waters cool faster and form ice more quickly,”

        Because a high proportion dissolved gases have been expelled along with some, but not all, dissolved minerals?

  3. Rud Istvan permalink
    March 23, 2015 8:50 pm

    There appears to be something of a 30-40 year cycle to Arctic ice. Larsen completed the first ever 1 season Northwest Passage (and only 3rd ever NWP) in just 87 days in 1944. The NWP was again possible in a single season in 2010,11,12. 2013 was dicey; one boat got stuck and had to overwinter, several turned around . 2014 was basically a disaster, with all but 4 attempts failed or stuck to overwinter or rescued by Canadian icebreakers. Essay NWP. This suggests the Arctic ice is recovering from its natural cyclic low a few years back. On an annual basis, details are weather driven as 2007 (multiyear ice blown out Framm Strait) and 2012 (cyclone led to minimum area) show.
    Arctic ice (and polar bear recovery after the 1970’s hunting moratorium) are more massive blows to the CAGW meme. The focus on lowest (not) Arctic winter max will come back to haunt CAGW in September concerning the summer minimum just before Paris. Multiyear ice almost guarantees that. Something to look forward to.

  4. AndyG55 permalink
    March 23, 2015 9:02 pm

    Now that the colder air looks to be staying up north for a short while, it might give the metres deep snow in Canada and NE USA a chance to melt.

  5. AZ1971 permalink
    March 23, 2015 9:57 pm

    Here’s the easy fix to keep the Arctic full of ice: build a dam and lock system across the Diomede Islands in the Bering Sea Strait. No water flowing north through the straight, no way for ice to be as easily flushed out the Fram Strait in the North Atlantic.

    Problem solved. Planet saved. Alarmists rejoice.

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      March 24, 2015 11:09 am

      Probably cheaper than converting the developed nations to “renewable” power sources too.

  6. glenwaytown permalink
    March 23, 2015 10:49 pm

    More academics claiming that the arctic ice loss is at an all time record low and this is a disaster for humanity on ITN’s news tonight. Unfortunately for the vast majority this becomes the reality.

  7. AndyG55 permalink
    March 24, 2015 4:50 am

    See all those wiggly lines together at the top of the curve..

    What is the measurement error on that lot?

    Would this error would encompass all of them, so as to make them indistinguishable.?

  8. March 24, 2015 5:27 pm

    Reblogged this on the-real-institute.com and commented:
    The Arctic Sea ice is growing although the climate change industry would have the public believe the FEAR instead….the fabled dire global meltdown… just is not actually happening.

  9. tom0mason permalink
    March 25, 2015 3:12 am

    The touchstone of the catastrophist religious doctrine, ordained by Hansen and never questioned since. He said it was a major indicator of global warming, I say that the old activist BSer is full of it.
    Ice floating in the Arctic seas, being blown around and dragged by ocean currents hither and yon. Historically the ice has always varied, sometimes vastly.
    IMO the importance of its variation from month to month is less important that decadal variation. But the absolute importance of either is not that much given the chaotic movements that actually happen.

  10. Trucker Mark permalink
    March 25, 2015 5:47 am

    Amazing how much difference there is between the NSDIC and Arctic Roos sea ice extent charts per-date. The NSDIC chart shows Arctic sea ice extent this March 9th being about 300,000 square Km less than the Arctic Roos chart does, and NSDIC also shows that on April 1st, 2011, Arctic sea ice extent was 14,496,000 sq. km, whereas Arctic Roos shows the same extent per-date of approx. 12,500,000 sq. km, a massive discrepancy.

    Similarly, for March 23rd, 2015, NSDIC shows that sea-ice extent is actually 13,000 sq. km. less than on March 23rd, 2007, and 55,000 sq. km. less that March 23rd, 2011. NSDIC does show somewhat of a flatter sea-ice extent recovery since the low point on March 9th, 2015 when extent was 14,273,000 sq. km to its current extent of 14,410,000 sq. km.

    So, someone explain to me why there is a 2 million square kilometer discrepancy between Arctic Roos and NSDIC on April 1st, 2011. My guess (from plenty of experience) is that Arctic Roos is falsified.

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