BP Energy Outlook Forecasts Big Increase In CO2 Emissions By 2035

By Paul Homewood   

 

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/energy-outlook-2015/Energy_Outlook_2035_booklet.pdf 

 

There has been some speculation recently that global CO2 emissions have stalled in the last year. This stems from a statement by the IEA, but as they have not published any data yet, it remains just speculation. 

Regardless of what happened in 2014 however, there is no sign that emissions will stop growing, never mind be cut back in the next couple of decades. The recent BP Energy Outlook, just published last month, offers a harsh dose of reality, and makes grim reading for the greenies. 

 

These are the highlights:

 

 

We project that by 2035 global energy consumption increases by 37% from today’s levels with virtually all (96%) the growth in non-OECD countries and more than half coming from India and China

• World energy demand is projected to be 37% higher in 2035 with India and China accounting for half the growth. By sector, inputs to power generation account for nearly 60% of the growth.
• Global energy intensity in 2035 is half of what it was in 1995 and 36% lower than 2013. However, global energy use per capita is projected to increase by 12%.
• The US becomes energy self-sufficient by 2021. And by 2035 could be exporting 9% of its total energy supply. Meanwhile, China overtakes the EU as the world’s largest importing country/region by 2025.
• Russia remains the largest net exporter of energy with net exports meeting 4% of world energy demand in 2035. Europe remains the largest importer of natural gas while China becomes the world’s largest oil importer.
• By 2035, over 70% of carbon emissions are produced from the non-OECD, although per capita emissions in the non-OECD are still less than half the OECD level. Total carbon emissions increase by 25%. [Currently, non-OECD accounts for 60%].
• Renewables (including biofuels) account for 8% of total energy consumption in 2035, compared to just 3% today.
• The fastest fuel growth is seen in renewables (6.3% p.a.). Nuclear (1.8% p.a.) and hydro-electric power (1.7% p.a.) grow faster than total energy. Among fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest (1.9% p.a.) with oil (0.8% p.a.) marginally ahead of coal (also 0.8% p.a, to one decimal place).
• Consumption of liquid fuels (oil, biofuels and other liquids) rises to 111 Mb/d by 2035, driven by non-OECD transport and industry.
• The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia supply over a third of global liquids output to 2035. OPEC’s share of the global liquids market in 2035 is 40%, the same as in 2013.
• Natural gas supply reaches nearly 500 Bcf/d by 2035, with the US accounting for nearly 25%. Increased usage in the power and industrial sectors account for over 80% of total demand growth.
• Coal demand growth in China and India combined is larger than global growth, more than making up for declines in the rest of the world. Jointly they account for 66% of total coal demand in 2035.
• China overtakes the US as the biggest nuclear producer with its share of the world total rising from 4% today to 30% in 2035. 

 

To put some detail behind the headlines:

 

1) The report highlights the role of population and GDP growth as the key drivers behind the growing demand for energy.

 

 

2) Although energy intensity (the amount of energy used per unit of GDP) falls as economic growth is concentrated away from heavy industry, primary energy consumption is still projected to increase by 37%

 

 

3) Fossil fuels will still continue to satisfy the vast majority of energy demand, although gas is expected to increase its share.

 

 

4) Meanwhile, renewables remain small fry, increasing  share from 3% today to just 8% in 2035, (excl hydro).

 

 

5) In regional terms, while EU demand is projected to fall slightly, energy demand in China and India is expected to increase by 60% and 127% respectively. 

 

Million tonnes oil equivalent	2013	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Total Energy Consumption	12730.4	13186.5	14650.9	15714.8	16619.2	17454.7
of which: OECD #	5533.1	5540.1	5693.0	5740.8	5744.7	5712.5
Non-OECD	7197.3	7646.4	8957.9	9974.0	10874.5	11742.2
European Union #	1675.9	1643.6	1634.2	1626.8	1609.3	1579.3
Europe	1912.9	1885.7	1907.2	1924.1	1929.3	1922.9
Former Soviet Union †	1012.3	1011.5	1078.4	1130.6	1166.5	1201.4
US	2265.8	2280.2	2353.3	2358.9	2337.3	2299.7
China	2852.4	3068.1	3723.0	4115.8	4366.7	4562.0
India	595.0	646.9	807.0	973.8	1160.1	1355.0

 http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/energy-outlook/energy-outlook-downloads.html 

 

6) And the impact on CO2 emissions?        

  

 

 

Summary

This is the harsh reality. Forget about divesting and demonising energy producers.

The only way that emissions can be limited is by turning off the tap of economic growth not just for the likes of China and India, but also the rest of the developing world and make them remain in poverty.

Progressives think that is a good idea.