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Why Measuring Arctic Ice Trends From 1979 Is Gross Deception

April 15, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

n_plot

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

 

Officially, we only started monitoring Arctic sea ice extents by satellite from 1979. We know however that this is not the whole story. For instance, HH Lamb tells us:

Kukla & Kukla (1974) report that the area of snow and ice, integrated over the year across the Northern Hemisphere, was 12% more in 1973 than in 1967, when the first satellite surveys were made.

 

What we also know is that 1979 in particular, and the 1970’s generally, were exceptionally cold years in and around the Arctic, as the Iceland Met Office graph below of Stykkisholmur temperatures clearly shows.

 

sth_hiti_enska

http://en.vedur.is/climatology/articles/nr/1213

 

We find the same pattern of cycles in temperature hitting the bottom at this time all around the Arctic.

 

 

aku

Iceland

 

 ang

Greenland

 

station

Canada

kotz

Alaska

 

jan

Norway

 

ostr

Russia

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v2/

 

As HH Lamb wrote in 1982:

The cooling of the Arctic since 1950-60 has been most marked in the very same regions which experienced the strongest warming in the earlier decades of the 20thC, namely the central Arctic and northernmost parts of the two great continents remote from the world’s oceans, but also in the Norwegian-East Greenland Sea….

A greatly increased flow of the cold East Greenland Current has in several years (especially 1968 and 1969, but also 1965, 1975 and 1979) brought more Arctic sea ice to the coasts of Iceland than for fifty years. In April-May 1968 and 1969, the island was half surrounded by ice, as had not occurred since 1888.

Such sea ice years have always been dreaded in Iceland’s history because of the depression of summer temperatures and the effects on farm production….. The 1960’s also saw the abandonment of attempts at grain growing in Iceland, which had been resumed in the warmer decades of this century after a lapse of some hundreds of years…

 

To draw any conclusions about Arctic ice or temperatures, using data that begins at the coldest point of the cycle is utterly worthless and grossly misleading. But this is climate “science” we are talking about.

21 Comments
  1. Don permalink
    April 15, 2015 6:17 pm

    Of course their using 1979-2000 as median for Arctic ice is farce. Cherry picking at its most obvious.

  2. April 15, 2015 6:20 pm

    There is additional supporting evidence in DMI summer ice extent maps and Russian summer observations. Essay Northwest Passage. Satellites coincidentally started at a natural Arctic ice peak ino what appears to be about a 60 year cycle. Excluding the 2012 cyclone year, ice has been recovering in extent, volume, and multiyear ice every year since the nadir in 2007. That can be expected to continue for about another two decades.

  3. April 15, 2015 8:07 pm

    When the curtain is finally pulled, we will realize:

    1. Deceit was adopted as a worldwide strategy when the UN formed in OCT 1945 to:
    _ a.) Hide the source of energy in cores of heavy atoms, and
    _ b.) Save the world from possible nuclear annihilation

    2. The Divine Humor responded: THE FORCE OF DESTRUCTION in cores of heavy atoms is THE SAME FORCE OF CREATION in cores of stars & galaxies.

  4. AndyG55 permalink
    April 15, 2015 9:40 pm

    This thread from WUWT might be of interest.

    Cache of historical Arctic sea ice maps discovered

  5. April 15, 2015 9:48 pm

    Don’t forget Vinje’s work on Nordic ice extent:

    He said:
    “The August ice extent in the Eastern area has been more than halved over the past 80 yr. A similar meltback has not been observed since the temperature optimum during the eighteenth century. This retrospective comparison indicates accordingly that the recent reduction of the ice extent in the Eastern area is still within the variation range observed over the past 300 yr.”

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/03/29/arctic-sea-ice-factors/

  6. AndyG55 permalink
    April 15, 2015 9:50 pm

    Even if the Arctic sea ice was decreasing from 1979….up to 2013

    1. What would you expect when the latter half of the 20th century had a series of very strong solar cycles.

    2. Wouldn’t Russia rejoice at having better access to their northern ports.

    I really don’t see that there is a big issue with low summer Arctic Ice extent anyway.

    • tom0mason permalink
      April 15, 2015 11:01 pm

      Also remember that from the 1960s onward and across the northern hemisphere all major governments had enacted clean air laws and regulations. The results of these efforts was that the hemisphere’s sky had cleared greatly from about 1980 onward.

      I am somewhat confused as to what caused the leap in temperatures in the 1920s. Can anyone shine a light on why the big jump?

  7. April 16, 2015 2:26 am

    Thanks, Paul.
    When I show this graphic in my climate pages, I say:
    Monthly Sea Ice Extent Anomaly Graphs, since 1979 [when the maximum extent of Arctic sea ice was reached]
    So, for as long as the Arctic doesn’t reach that maximum again, it will be on a down slope.

  8. Mr Biscuits permalink
    April 16, 2015 4:49 am

    The full 1990 IPCC report is available here: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf

    On page 224 the sea ice extent graphs going back to early 1970’s, the accompanying IPPC text reads “satellite observations, have have been used to map sea-ice extent routinely since the early 1970’s”

    The sea-ice extent chart on page 224 divulges that ice-extent was extremely low between 1973 and 1976 (comparable to today) which increased reaching an impressive peak in 1979. This is the reason the data now “starts” in ’79.

    • April 16, 2015 2:18 pm

      Yes, and the data, a positive anomaly of some 0.8 million square kilometers, is reported to be from NOAA.

    • Aztecbill permalink
      August 23, 2016 6:35 am

      Since about 1976 the areal extent of sea-ice in the Northern Hemisphere has varied about a constant climatological level but in 1972-1975, sea-ice extent was significantly less – IPCC 1990 assessment, Page 224.

  9. April 16, 2015 10:17 am

    Here’s the NSIDC’s chart of Arctic sea ice extent anomalies since 1953

    You will no doubt note that it reveals an overall peak in the late 60s, not the late 70s

    • April 16, 2015 4:17 pm

      I note they don’t show the 1940’s

      • April 16, 2015 8:23 pm

        Whereas I note that 1969 is a much juicier looking cherry than 1979. Is 1949 better still?

      • April 17, 2015 9:58 am

        They did not have satellite monitoring in 1969.

      • April 17, 2015 11:18 am

        It’s somewhat tedious to have two threads on similar subjects. Actually there is (patchy!) satellite data going back to 1964:

        Satellite Monitoring Of Arctic Sea Ice Pre 1979

        The “1979” (actually 1978) is not a “Gross Deception!”, it’s a “consistent time series”. These days there are higher resolution instruments around, but the NSIDC numbers are still derived from SSMIS.

      • AndyG55 permalink
        April 17, 2015 11:41 am

        One has to wonder what people have against the Russians that they shouldn’t be able to use their northern ports for more than a fraction of the year?

        There is no problem with the Arctic having diminished sea ice, the real problems start when the sea ice increases.

        Ask the people in NE USA which they would prefer.. snow up to the second floor window, or somewhat less !!

        WAKE UP !!

        Warming is NOT bad.

        CO2 is only beneficial at any level it will ever climb to in the atmosphere.

  10. April 16, 2015 2:42 pm

    Thanks, Paul, for pulling back the curtain on seventy years (1945-2015) of lock-step consensus “science” to show Stalin actually won WWII:

    1. Nations and National Academies of Sciences were United on 24 Oct 1945 to:
    _ a.) Hide the DESTRUCTIVE FORCE in cores of heavy atoms, and
    _ b.) Save the world from possible nuclear annihilation [1]

    2. Actual measurements show: THE FORCE OF DESTRUCTION in cores of heavy atoms is THE CREATIVE FORCE in cores of stars and galaxies [2].

    Fear of self-incrimination still keeps NAS members from addressing these measurements [2] today.

    1. “Aston’s WARNING (12 DEC 1922); CHAOS & FEAR (AUG 1945)” https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/CHAOS_and_FEAR_August_1945.pdf

    2. “Solar Energy for school teachers,”

    Click to access Supplement.pdf

    – Oliver K. Manuel
    PhD Nuclear Chemistry
    Postdoc Space Physics
    Former NASA Principal
    Investigator for Apollo

  11. April 17, 2015 6:25 pm

    Andy says
    WAKE UP !!
    Warming is NOT bad.
    CO2 is only beneficial at any level it will ever climb to in the atmosphere.

    Henry says
    I woke up!!
    There is no warming. Neither natural nor man-made. They are all just dreaming (of a warmer world)

    Come live in South Africa
    if you want a warmer world around you

    • Snowleopard permalink
      April 18, 2015 9:27 pm

      Yes. Your world is warmer than mine weather-wise. But it is a bit too hot for for me there in other ways.

Comments are closed.