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Global Sea Ice Update

April 30, 2015
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

S_stddev_timeseries_thumb

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

 

With Antarctic sea ice running above even last year’s record levels, it is no surprise that global sea ice is above average.

 

global.daily.ice.area.withtrend

global.daily.ice.area.withtrend

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

 

A closer look at the global trends since the start of last year show that sea ice has been above average for 269 days out of 466. On average, area has been 132,000 sq km above the 1979-2008 mean.

 

image

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008

 

 

Cryosphere also have this chart of Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Anomalies since 1979. You can follow the link, and zoom in for detail. 

 sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

  

But a closer look shows that there was a step down in 2005 and 2006 (see below). Despite the dips in 2007 and 2012, anomalies since have not been much different to what they were in 2006.

Remember, these are anomalies throughout the year, and not just the minimums in September, which we usually are presented with. (The gradations are million sq km).

 

 

sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries

 NH Sea Ice Anomalies 2005 to 2015

 

 

Finally, Arctic ice thickness is the most since 2006.

 

Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png

24 Comments
    • A C Osborn permalink
      April 30, 2015 3:35 pm

      Sorry that should say the Arctic ISN’T doing that badly.

    • May 1, 2015 3:56 am

      Thanks for the links. The fact is that with radiations back to “normal” in 2015, after the spike of 2014, we can only expect the Antarctic ice to continue its impressive increase of the 2011-13 period.
      I’m really expecting a new series of records to be broken by the Antarctic ice this year, and possibly reaching +2.5 million anomaly at some point.
      For the Arctic ice, all we (the skeptics) need is it to get similar to 2006 in September.
      I don’t think the AGW religion will survive the punch, if it happens.

  1. A C Osborn permalink
    April 30, 2015 3:48 pm

    Paul, what is the piece of graph at the bottom of the thread?

    • April 30, 2015 4:17 pm

      I have zoomed in on the NH graph (above) for 2005-2015.

      I’ll add a label

  2. April 30, 2015 3:50 pm

    Yes, the Arctic is limping by, not taking any plunge. Polar bears are supposed to be happy.

    From http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

    • nigel permalink
      May 1, 2015 9:09 am

      The most convenient website – University of Illinois – stopped updating three weeks ago and they do not respond to emails.

      In the absence of any explanation, one can only wonder if someone cut the University’s funding because it showed the world-ice growing?

  3. April 30, 2015 4:31 pm

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/solar/

    look at the sun

    it is spotless…..

    this very rare,

    you are sharing with me a most remarkable time in history….

    the sun is at its brightest…..in 87-88 years

    • April 30, 2015 4:41 pm

      Yes, thanks. A lot more detail here:

      From http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_igr/512/

    • May 1, 2015 4:14 am

      Here is the latest SDO Continuum.

      If it’s not spotless, it’s very, very close to it.
      The LSC count of G. Sharp gave SSN zero for Apr 29 and 30. Probably May 01 will be slightly above zero.

      • May 1, 2015 4:17 am

        Interesting that the image showing in the thumbnail is from Apr 23, while the image at the link is for May 01..

      • May 3, 2015 4:38 pm

        so, now, how would you count the number of spots that shows now?
        [I am interested to find out, as it always seems to me that counting those spots is a subjective job?]

      • May 4, 2015 3:09 am

        The best definition I know of the method and history of counting sunspots is in G. Sharp’s blog
        http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
        It has a section called
        “A BRIEF HISTORY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SUNSPOT COUNT.”
        and another called,
        “SOME BASIC MATHS TO DETERMINE SPECK DETECTION.”
        with all information you need to understand the numbers.
        He also defines the specific rules for LSC and why they differ from the official SIDC (http://sidc.oma.be/)
        Everything seems quite precise, objective and well defined.

    • nigel permalink
      May 3, 2015 10:34 am

      “…the sun is at its brightest…”

      The sun is brighter with sunspots, since the surrounding of a spot is hotter than usual.
      A sunspot minimum involves a drop in the solar constant of about 0.1 %

  4. April 30, 2015 4:38 pm

    ironically
    when the sun is brighter, earth will get cooler
    brace yourselves for more snow and ice….

  5. April 30, 2015 7:18 pm

    I wonder if you guys also can feel that the sun is hotter? I cannot go outside here without my hat for 5 minutes or my ears get burned….
    here: is South Africa

  6. May 1, 2015 2:00 am

    The forgotten determinant of climate, precipitation.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/04/30/here-comes-the-rain-again/

    • tom0mason permalink
      May 3, 2015 7:20 pm

      Precisely! As you say the world is water not earth, but the element that earth adds to our watery world’s atmosphere, and to precipitation, is fine dust particles.
      Another confounding factor not adequately accounted for in the IPCC modeling scheme.

  7. May 1, 2015 3:45 am

    “With Antarctic sea ice running above even last year’s record levels, it is no surprise that global sea ice is above average.”
    Continuing the trend of a cooling world.

    “A closer look at the global trends since the start of last year show that sea ice has been above average for 269 days out of 466. On average, area has been 132,000 sq km above the 1979-2008 mean.”
    During a period of the solar maximum (2014), when radiations reached an intensity even greater than 2011-12, to the point of allowing the formation of a weak El Nino in the last few months.
    In 2015 and the coming years it will be a different story: what is good now will become even better… for us skeptics.

    “Finally, Arctic ice thickness is the most since 2006. “
    Again, showing the cooling trend. Note also that the Antarctic ice increased steadily since 2011, the only period where this steady increase “paused” (with oscillations) was 2014.

    IMO this means that even with radiations not so low, as in 2011-13 period, the cooling continued. In fact, I believe that it’s possible to proof that in 2007-2010 it was accelerating.

    The cooling trend is quite obvious, except for the blind alarmists.
    It is also strongly dependent on the intensity of solar radiations.

    • May 1, 2015 4:25 am

      err: I believe that it’s possible to prove

  8. May 1, 2015 7:25 am

    I wonder why everyone is so quiet about the quiet sun?
    They must all fear the big freeze, especially the green- and not so green interest groups……

  9. May 3, 2015 1:46 pm

    Nigel says

    A sunspot minimum involves a drop in the solar constant of about 0.1 %

    Henry says

    the reality is that there is very little [reliable] data on TSI and I think it is measured TOA?

    My data set shows that on average Means dropped by about 0.2K since 2000
    (RSS says that we dropped only 0.1K, but I rather trust my own results because I know my sample of 57 weather stations was properly balanced)
    So, if the average temp. on earth is 14C [give or take few tenths)
    then I calculate the current variation [from AD 2000] as 0.2/14 x 100 % = 1.4% on the Celsius scale.
    But….
    we are not there yet. My results suggest that the worst is still to come. In the next 10 years I expect us to fall by a further 0.3K at least.
    So in total the ratio becomes 0.5/14 x 100% = 3.6% on the Henry scale.

    So, what I am saying, is, you can stand on the sun as long as you like, and measure 0.1%, for as long as you want, but sitting here on earth [in the cold] with a thermometer is an entirely different piece of cake.

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