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Arctic Temperature Trends

May 2, 2015

By Paul Homewood




Euan Mearns has an interesting post, looking at temperature trends across the Arctic and sub-Arctic areas of Norway, Sweden, Finland and the adjacent part of Russia.

The data clearly show a cyclical pattern, with the warm years of the 1930’s and 40’s at a similar level to the temperatures in the past decade. In between are the much colder 1960’s and 70’s.

Euan has used the original, unadjusted GHCN V2. As we know well, the adjusted data have suppressed the warm peak in the 1940’s and consequently show a steadily rising temperature trend.

The whole of Euan’s piece is worth reading here.


The cyclical pattern identified by Euan also closely matches the Icelandic temperature record, which I built up from the official Iceland Met Office data.



  1. May 2, 2015 12:41 pm

    Thanks Paul! Your readers may be interested to know that in Clive Best’s most recent post he links to GHCN V1 raw data. And in comments Nick Stokes links to a bundle of GHCN V3 raw data. The V2 raw I use here are not quite raw since GISS have bundled different records from a single site. Below my summary for Iceland that followed up your work.

  2. May 2, 2015 12:45 pm

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
    More proof of the “natural” climate cycles that NASA and the Politicians want to hide.

  3. May 2, 2015 3:32 pm

    Paul, I was wondering if you have a view on where the fabled Arctic warming is. Iceland, northern Scandinavia, E Siberia all have late 1930s as warm as present. There is a crappy (unusable) record Nord Ads on NE Greenland and a couple of scrappy records on Svalbard – in fact Svalbard Lufthaven is probably OK, its just a short record that catches recent warming. I not looked everywhere yet, but is there any part of the Arctic appreciably warmer today than 75 years ago?

    • May 2, 2015 3:49 pm

      Even in Alaska, there is a clear warm period around 1940, not dissimilar to the present. You only tend to see a warmer present at places like Barrow, where a clear UHI influence has been detected.

  4. A C Osborn permalink
    May 2, 2015 4:41 pm

    Paul, do you know where I can find a copy of the original Valentia Observatory Temp dataset?
    I have been looking at GHCN V3 for Valentia and it is a mess, for a start it only starts in 1961, there are a lot of -9999 values and 1991-1994 are missing altogether.
    I have downloaded the Eire Met office data but it only goes back 30 years.
    As well as the missing data their are also a few values in GHCN to the Eire MET data.
    I am not sure if the Eire Met data is raw or Final, but GHCN use it as Raw.

    • A C Osborn permalink
      May 2, 2015 4:42 pm

      PS, Not TricksZone has 2 new threads on Corrupt data, one for Switzerland and one for Maine USA that are well worth a read.
      I am trying to get the Authors to help the GWPF enquiry

    • May 2, 2015 4:58 pm

      GISS have the V2 data, which is nearly 100% complete.

      • A C Osborn permalink
        May 2, 2015 5:07 pm

        Paul, thanks for that. Clive Best’s V1 has the whole data series of I assume unadjusted data which he has provided on his web site.
        I will see if I can take a look as V2 as well.

      • A C Osborn permalink
        May 2, 2015 5:10 pm

        Wow, no wonder they cut off V3 at 1961, they wouldn’t want to have to use that 1940s data.

      • A C Osborn permalink
        May 2, 2015 5:30 pm

        Paul, that is interesting, they must have been worried abot 1949 even with V2 data, as they lowered that year’s average from 12.05 down to 11.48 and in GHCN V3 they have removed all the data prior to 1961.
        So we have BEST using their Scalpels and Region Expectation and GHCN/GISS just changing the data.
        The other thing about V3 is that there is data for TAve but not for TMax, very odd.

      • A C Osborn permalink
        May 2, 2015 6:03 pm

        Paul, I am a bit confused by GHCN data.
        The TAve data for Valentia goes back to 1869 but the TMax data that I started with only goes back to 1961, this is really wierd.

      • May 2, 2015 8:13 pm

        Is the Tmax from the Ireland Met?

        I went on that and assumed they had prior data but only published the most recent

  5. May 2, 2015 4:56 pm

    Has gavin started working on ‘adjusting’ any of those stations yet?

  6. May 3, 2015 2:29 pm

    For a long time I misinterpreted the Arctic air temperature anomalies, such as shown in charts by DMI. The amount of heat put into the air by the northern seas is enormous.

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