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US Major Hurricane Drought Longest On Record

May 2, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

A paper just out reminds us of just how unusual the absence of a major landfalling hurricane in the US has been in recent years.

 

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063652/abstract

 

Abstract

As of the end of the 2014 hurricane season, the US has experienced no major hurricane landfall since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, a drought that currently stands at nine years. Here, we use a stochastic tropical-cyclone model to calculate the mean waiting time for multi-year landfall droughts. We estimate that the mean time to wait for a nine-year drought is 177 years. We also find that the average probability of ending the drought with a major landfall in the next year is 0.39, and is independent of the drought duration, as one would expect for a Bernoulli process.

 

 

 

NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division lists all landfalling hurricanes since 1851. Apart from the Civil War years, when there was no data available, there has been no period without a major hurricane as long as the current one.

 

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http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

5 Comments
  1. May 2, 2015 10:09 am

    “False predictions about climate,
    False predictions galore;
    False predictions about the weather
    That we have in store.
    Yet we keep on believing
    The predictions we’re given,
    By some irrational fear
    We seem to be driven…..”
    Read more: http://wp.me/p3KQlH-DG

  2. quaesoveritas permalink
    May 2, 2015 12:35 pm

    The general public probably don’t even know about this.

    No matter how long the drought the first major hurricane to hit the U.S. will be blamed on Climate Change.

  3. May 2, 2015 5:33 pm

    Seeing that it is globally cooling, one must realize that maybe there is also less energy going into the oceans,
    hence less water vapor is produced.

  4. May 4, 2015 5:02 am

    Thanks!!!

  5. May 5, 2015 7:39 am

    Thanks, Paul.
    Since 2000 the accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has been under 1400 x 10^4 Knots^2.
    See http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

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