The Polar Bear Fallacy
June 8, 2015
By Paul Homewood
http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2015/06/Arctic-Fallacy.pdf
In a new paper for GWPF, the Arctic mammal expert, Dr Susan Crockford, accuses scientists of systematically misleading the public, saying that they are blaming changes in polar bear populations on global warming despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Below is the summary:
The full paper can be seen here.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Thanks for the news, Paul. I’ll read Dr. Crockford’s paper.
Dr. Jim Steele has been warning us about the polar bears fallacy for some time now.
See his book “Landscapes & Cycles”, at http://www.landscapesandcycles.net/
Three cheers for Dr Susan Crockford! (and as Andres Valencia says Dr. Jim Steele,) for going against the consensus of ‘settled’ science advocacy, and alarmism.
She is truly one of the few real scientists who is willing report the scientific truth based on observed evidence.
Hip! hip! hip!
Hooray!
Aunty was quick to report when it was thought they were threatened.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7402108.stm
But can find no ‘good news’ update since 2008.
Perhaps they should send Harrabin out to count them!
Naah He can’t count
Can you teach Green Parrots to do that as well
Reblogged this on JunkScience.com.
In his book, “Useless Arithmetic, Why Environmental Scientists Cannot Predict The Future”‘ Orrin Pilky reviews the abject failure of environmental computer models. He covers global warming models, fish population models, shore erosion models, and more. One startling admission by an engineer using the shore erosion models that have been proven wrong time and time again is that (paraphrasing) ,”It is the only thing we have to justify our recommendations to decision makers who insist that we use these models”. Why don’t the models work? The physical environment and in the case of bears and fish, also biology, are exceedingly complex and the relationships among the variables that can determine outcomes are at best only partially understood and at worst not even known. The models are gross approximations of a complex and sometimes chaotic reality where small changes in assumptions or variables cause large changes in the outcomes. Nevertheless, the devotees of modeling worship at the desk of their computers convinced that just one more equation or tweak thereof will bring them the Nobel prize.
The problem here is that it is unlikely to make any difference.
If the BBC (and we keep coming back to that in almost every topic) do not report this as a factual, scientific work; so what?
The Telegraph or Breitbart may publish the article until they are blue in the face, but those reading the articles there, are not the people who need to know.
I have commented elsewhere that unless there is some outlet for these types stories, which the masses will see/read, then there will be no change. This is a great article and I have read it cover to cover, but in the same way as with the In/Out EU debate, there can be no open discussion about these articles as there is no forum for open discussion anywhere.
Except maybe the BBC, and they are, as yet, not an option.
Susan’s site is:
http://polarbearscience.com/
She doesn’t do comments there but does do so when cross posting on, say, WUWT.
Her posts go back to July 2012. Start reading.
When you see ice cubes or icebergs – for that matter – floating in the water …
they are melting you understand …! stop dreaming about freezing, you hear … too bad for the climat
I am sure you know this : Chaos-math.org, and please tell me what are the Prediction Limits?
There’s obviously a sweet spot/range; too little ice, p.b.s need to substitute land hunting, and too much means hard times for seals and bears.
Interestingly when I clcik on the pdf link – I get a “Not Found” page. Removed because it doesn’t fit their idealogy perhaps?
You could search for it.
Try this one!
Click to access Arctic-Fallacy2.pdf
Quite funny alec 🙂
Your name links to a site that says one of its specialisations is “Search Engine Optimization Services”
Just saying 😉
Perhaps you should have hired them before commenting.
You also might like to visit this page.