Skip to content

Scientists Forecast Mini Ice Age By 2030’s

July 11, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

image

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years.html 

 

 

While Paris fiddles!

 

 

The earth is 15 years from a "mini ice-age" that will cause bitterly cold winters during which rivers such as the Thames freeze over, scientists have predicted.

Solar researchers at the University of Northumbria have created a new model of the sun’s activity which they claim produces "unprecedentedly accurate predictions".

They said fluid movements within the sun, which are thought to create 11-year cycles in the weather, will converge in such a way that temperatures will fall dramatically in the 2030s.

Solar activity will fall by 60 per cent as two waves of fluid "effectively cancel each other out", according to Prof Valentina Zharkova.

In a presentation to the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, she said the result would be similar to freezing conditions of the late 17th century.

“[In the cycle between 2030 and around 2040] the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the sun," she said.

"Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other.

"We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’".

Maunder minimum, indicating low sunspot activity, was the name given to the period between 1645 and 1715, when Europe and North America experienced very cold winters.

 

 

In England during this "Little Ice Age", River Thames frost fairs were held. In the winter of 1683-84 the Thames froze over for seven weeks, during which it was "passable by foot", according to historical records.

Prof Zharkova said scientists had known about one dynamo caused by convecting fluids deep within the sun, but her research appeared to have uncovered another.

"We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the sun’s interior," she said.

"They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time.

"Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 per cent."

This had helped create a picture of what would happen in the 2030s.

"Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity," Prof Zharkova said.

"When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago."

Advertisements
33 Comments
  1. cheshirered permalink
    July 11, 2015 3:55 pm

    Yeah but that ice age will herald the nation being covered under a blanket of dry ice. Dry ice is….oh noes – carbon dioxide!! See? Too much CO2 and if we’re not cooked, we’re frozen solid. We could be doomed. I demand a large research grant immediately.

    • July 11, 2015 4:10 pm

      Of course CO2 is poisonous,
      Didn’t you know?
      It’s only a myth
      That it makes the plants grow.
      We all need to stop breathing,
      Hear what I say,
      Then all this man-made nonsense
      Would just go away.

  2. John Ellyssen permalink
    July 11, 2015 4:31 pm

    So here is a probably stupid question. The government rules (till just recently) caused builders to construct houses that are super efficient at holding in the heat. Which in turn caused problems in the summer of over-heating the house. Could this have been some government slick trick to avoid panic of a mini-iceage and protect the people? It has been identified for a few years in several reports including John Casey’s book “Dark Winter” that we were heading for a mini-iceage. However I am doubting that the government is that sneakily beneficial. Thoughts anyone?

    • July 12, 2015 1:27 am

      My thoughts go the opposite way on the matter. While holding in the heat was likely unforeseen and accidental, I’m sure if they had managed to house a high percentage of the population before the problem was detected, officials would have very happily blamed the overheating on CAGW. Feeling the heat inside would have been used as “proof” of global warming.

  3. July 11, 2015 5:11 pm

    I once went to a WeatherAction meeting just to see what all the fuss was about. It was around the time when Boris Johnson was hailing Piers Corbyn as the ‘best forecaster’ for having predicted the snow that year. When he was asked when the next ice age was coming Piers was pretty confident when he stated the year: 2036!

  4. Tom Collins permalink
    July 11, 2015 5:12 pm

    Didn’t the “experts” forecast that we would all freeze to death this century or before, then we’ll fry and now it’s back to freezing again. Make your minds up. I don’t know whether to buy an overcoat or a mankini !

  5. Prof. Michael Jefferson permalink
    July 11, 2015 5:20 pm

    The Telegraph/University of Northumbria report may fall into the same ‘alarmist’ trap as those who are convinced about ‘global warming’. But at least it will cause more people to consider past realities – such as the Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimums. Only a little over 10 years ago I provided the energy inputs to a book on global warming written by a leading British scientist in the field. I raised the question of solar variation with him, but he was adamant: only the Mlilankovitch Effect had any relevance – every 150,000 years! I believe he was fundamentally incorrect. Perhaps we are about to enter a period of better balance in attitudes, and policy.

  6. July 11, 2015 5:31 pm

    What is it with scientists today that they have to big-up themselves and their work by making climate predictions. I’m prepared to accept the predictions about solar “activity”, but the link to the climate is surely pure speculation.

    Atmospheric scientists should stick to making statements about the atmosphere, solar scientists should not stray beyond the sun, snail experts and geneticists should stay out of physics altogether.

  7. July 11, 2015 6:06 pm

    Reblogged this on eliquidassets.

  8. Le Gin permalink
    July 11, 2015 6:25 pm

    But….there was that nice climate scientist man fr NASA on the Today programme on Friday morning that said that they’ve found all the missing heat in the oceans, and that global warming would be picking up again soon, and then we would be really for it…?

  9. July 11, 2015 6:35 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections and commented:
    Yep…cyclical nature.

  10. TonyM permalink
    July 11, 2015 7:16 pm

    Is this just another group of scientists worshipping at the keyboards of their computers? Are they so confident of their sun models that they believe they can make predictions 15 years into the future? Haven’t we seen computer predictions of extremely complex systems before , all of which have failed in predicting anything that has really happened? Granted, it is terrific to have a group of scientists who actually thinks the sun is important in our weather and offering alternative theories to the false narratives of the warmists, but I won’t be stocking up on thermal underwear any time soon.

  11. July 11, 2015 7:30 pm

    What brought the LIA and icing of the Thames back in winter 1939/40?
    From: http://www.2030climate.com/a2005/02_11-Dateien/02_11.html
    – 21 January 1940: -23C was recorded at Rhayader (Wales).
    – 22 January 1940; Severe snowstorms swept Europe from the Adriatic Sea to Scandinavia. (NYT, 23 January 1940).
    – 26 January 1940; Headline: Cold Greater Foe Than Germans For French Army in Front Lines. Most Severe Winter in Generations Taxes Troops’ Endurance to the Limit but Test Is Met With Courage (NYT, 27 January 1940). It has been freezing for six weeks. Everything is frozen – the bread in the sling bag, the wine in the canteen. (ditto).
    – 28 January 1940; In the close vicinity of London the river Thames has frozen for the first time since 1814. (Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 29 January 1940).
    – 29 January 1940; Icy Storm Hits Britain; London Has Heavy Snow (NYT, 29 January 1940). Heavy snow paralyses Britain; Transportation is badly affected. Trains from Scotland fail to reach London. The united Press said that snow was falling over most of the country yesterday and that the cold broke a forty-six-year record. Snow still was falling heavily over most of the country today and there were three inches of snow in the centre of London. (NYT, 30 January 1940).
    – 31 January 1940; Crawford/Scotland had been cut off by a blizzard raging over the British Isles last Saturday (27 January). Newspapers permitted to publish the first details of the blizzard, called it the coldest weather in a century. (NYT, 01 February 1940).

  12. Gamecock permalink
    July 11, 2015 8:04 pm

    “unprecedentedly accurate predictions”

    How would they know?

  13. Chris Manuell permalink
    July 11, 2015 8:58 pm

    Timo Nirroma the Finnish solar researcher and statistician predicted that back in 2007 which is much more impressive.
    http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html

  14. AndyG55 permalink
    July 11, 2015 9:35 pm

    That gives countries like the UK , etc time to beef up their COAL and GAS fired power supply.

    Wind turbines will need that extra electricity to keep their heaters going to stop them freezing solid.

  15. July 11, 2015 10:43 pm

    It you forecast everything, you will at least be right part of the time.

    That will improve the track record of AGW promoters!

  16. July 11, 2015 11:41 pm

    It would be comical, if the survival of mankind were not jeapordized by lock-step consensus models that have prevented us from understanding the fountain of energy that Copernicus reported at the gravitational center of the solar system in 1543 to start the scientific revolution.

    Dr. Carl Rouse, was probably one of the most intellectually honest and certainly one of the most abused American astrophysicists of the past century.

    http://omatumr.com/Photographs/Carl_Rouse_desc.htm

    He received a PhD in astrophysics from CalTech or Stanford in the late 1950’s, lived in LaJolla, CA with his lovely wife, and spent his career pointing out errors in the Standard Solar Model of a hydrogen-filled star.

    Here are a few of his papers:

    1964: “Calculation of stellar structure using an ionization equilibrium equation of state”, University of California, UCRL Report 7820-T.

    1969: “Calculation of stellar structure”, in Progress in High Temperature Physics and Chemistry 2, ed. C.A. Rouse, Pergamon Press, Oxford, UK, pp. 97-126.

    1975: “A solar neutrino loophole: Standard solar models”,Astronomy and Astrophysics 44, 237-240.

    1983: “Calculation of stellar structure. III. Solar models that satisfy the necessary conditions for a unique solution to the stellar structure equations”,Astronomy and Astrophysics 126, 102-110.

    1985: “Evidence for a small, high-Z, iron-like solar core”, Astronomy and Astrophysics 149, 65-72.

    1995: “Calculation of solar structure IV. Results using a detailed energy generation subroutine”, Astronomy and Astrophysics 304, 431-439.

    2000: “Inverse and forward helioseismology”, in Origin of Elements in the Solar System: Implications of Post 1957 Observations, ed. O. Manuel, Kluwer Academic-Plenum Publishers, New York, NY, USA, pp. 317-344.

  17. July 11, 2015 11:46 pm

    Thanks, Paul.
    Yes, future cooling is a possibility, confronting it from energy poverty could be bad.
    We should keep electricity as inexpensive as technology allows. This means natural gas, petroleum and coal sources.
    Global warming stopped after the great El Niño of 1998, the climate will keep on changing, as it always has.

  18. ulriclyons permalink
    July 12, 2015 1:20 am

    Solar cycles are ordered by the planets, not by internal dynamos. This minimum will be recovering by SC26, and the worst negative AO/NAO and increased El Nino will be from late this year to 2024. Following the same pattern as the last two minima, where the coldest run of years on CET are roughly between the sunspot maxima of the first two weak cycles, i.e 1807-1817 and 1885-1895.

  19. c777 permalink
    July 12, 2015 9:35 am

    Oh they already are starting to realise the games up, so the alarmists will do what they always do.
    Move the goalposts again.
    However its more than taxpayers money they’re wasting if this Mini Ice age is indeed on the way.
    Its peoples lives.
    Wind Turbines freeze up or don’t turn during very cold weather, that should be enough to destabilise the grid in winter.
    And the growing season shortens, that means developing strains of crops that have shorter growing cycles.
    The Green Blob needs chucking under a bus, pronto.
    I wonder if it will snow in Paris this December?

    What I think will be the alarmists defence of their gravy train here…..

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/23/weak-sun-could-offset-some-global-warming-europe-us-study

    • July 12, 2015 11:14 am

      I agree. People’s lives – in fact the very survival of humanity – has been threatened by false information from the “Orwellian Ministry of Consensus Scientific (UN)Truths” after Stalin emerged victorious from the ruins of WWII to unite nations and national academies of science to a worldwide totalitarian government.

      • July 15, 2015 6:49 am

        What, in your experience, leads you to think humans, especially a single, paranoid idiot like Stalin, are capable of organizing to “…unite nations and national academies of science to a worldwide totalitarian government”? Other conspiracy theorists like yourself think the Jews “rule the world”. Make up your paranoid minds, please. Does the world LOOK like it is being ruled? It is more like accidents and blunderings. As for Jews ruling: as Jon Stewart said, “Two Jews in a room, three opinions.” Conspiracy theorists seem to WANT someone controlling “everything”. I think that may be because they cannot stand the idea that there is no one in control! And, by the way, there is no god, either. Cheers!

  20. July 12, 2015 10:49 am

    Valentina was interviewed on radio 5 this morning. Unfortunately not a good communicator so the message was lost.

  21. July 12, 2015 11:24 am

    Reblogged this on Globalcooler's Weblog.

  22. Richard Bell permalink
    July 12, 2015 4:14 pm

    I am 55 years old and when I was 3 my parents took the whole family down to the Thames at Walton Bridge, it was the Winter of 1963 and the Thames was FROZEN over and we walked on the ICE ……. people have short memories …… Hey maybe I will get to do it again before I die ???????? ….. hear’s hoping !!!…. even if I have to use a walker ???

  23. Retired Dave permalink
    July 12, 2015 5:52 pm

    Anyone who doubts a link between the Current Bun and our climate should read

    The Neglected SUN by Fritz Vahrenholt & Sebastian Luning.

    Hard to avoid the obvious conclusion.

  24. Zeph permalink
    July 12, 2015 11:10 pm

    I wonder if folks are understanding that there are two climate trends under discussion. First is the assertion that there has been a gradual but long term increase in average global temperature due primarily to greenhouse gasses, with a runout of hundreds of years; there are thousands of scientists involved in that discussion.

    The current new is about 4 solar scientists who are predicting a new Maunder Minimum starting in 2030; this has not been widely studied and there is no broad consensus. If Valentina Zharkova and colleages are correct, it could mean a second trend, this time cooling, which could be more rapid, more intense in the short term, and temporary (50-100 years).

    These are independent mechanisms, and neither, either or both could be true.

    Supposing for the moment that they were both true, our good might be cooked indeed – but not for a few generations. The Maunder minimum might offset then overwhelm greenhouse gas warming for decades starting in the 2030’s and we might be happy to pump GHGs into the atmosphere for a couple more generations as part of offsetting the cold. But then after enough decaces, the GHG warming would begin to overbalance the Maunder cooling and then the Maunder solar minimum would recede, and humanity would see an increase far steeper than today, and would probably be very unprepared for it. But that would not be until the end of the century, and the world is likely to be a very different place (our robot masters may or may not care about such things by then 🙂

    Of course, you may or may not believe the atmospheric scientists about greenhouse gas warming, and you may or may not believe these solar scientists about their predictions of solar activity and/or how that will affect earth climate. Believing or not believing in either case won’t change the reality tho.

    • July 15, 2015 6:52 am

      Stop being reasonable! You might be confusing some people.

Trackbacks

  1. Sorta Blogless Sunday Pinup » Pirate's Cove

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: