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Met Office Move The Goal Posts!

September 7, 2015

By Paul Homewood 





Back in 2011, the Met Office published their decadal forecast for global temperatures. Their chart showed that temperatures in 1998 peaked well above subsequent years, even 2010.

Note also that the observed temperatures were close to dropping out of the bottom of their range of predictions (the red band).



12-month rolling averages



They even conveniently provide the actual annual temperatures: 





In 2013, the Met Office even admitted the self evident pause in temperatures:




Fast forward to today, and we find that the graph has been significantly altered.




Highly conveniently, the observations now agree with the predictions, and the inconvenient 1998 peak has been flattened. Whereas 1998 was originally shown as 0.02C warmer than 2010, it is now 0.02C cooler.


If the data  and models don’t agree, change the data!




Just for clarification, the changes relate to the move from HADCRUT3 to HADCRUT4

  1. September 7, 2015 12:24 pm

    Do you know what the observed temperatures are based on?
    I suspect that the reduction is due, at least in part, to the replacement of HadCRUT3 with HadCRUT4.

  2. cheshirered permalink
    September 7, 2015 1:04 pm

    Have they offered an explanation?

  3. September 7, 2015 1:18 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    Watch the pea 🙂

  4. September 7, 2015 1:44 pm

    May Labor Day 2015 end seventy years of official deceit (1945-2015) about:

    THE SUN: “Creator, Destroyer & Sustainer’ of every atom, life and planet in the solar system.'S_SCIENCE

    ResearchGate offers editors of mainstream research journals, the news media, leaders of federal research agencies and the scientific community an opportunity to download, read and respond in public to precise experimental data that prove the pulsar-centered Sun exerts primary control of our lives and the climate of planet Earth today.

  5. September 7, 2015 3:34 pm

    The sooner the Met Office fades into history so we can remember it when it was half decent, the better.

  6. September 7, 2015 3:56 pm

    We need to start emphasizing that their methodology refutes itself: they make claims of a rise of so-and-so degrees over the past 135 years, to the tenth or even hundredth of a degree, yet they show that they do not know with that kind of accuracy the temperature record over the past 15 years, by the very fact that they change the recent record the way they do. If they can’t tell with accuracy the temperature in the 21st century, with the spatial coverage and technology we have now, they cannot reasonably claim the accuracy they do for temperatures from 100-135 years ago. The former refutes the latter.

  7. rah permalink
    September 7, 2015 4:06 pm

    And THAT in a nutshell is what they call “Climate Science”. Climate Science has nothing to do with actual science. It’s sole reason for existing seems to be to alter current and historic data to fit an agenda. It is a fantasy with real world impacts.

  8. September 7, 2015 4:21 pm

    It’s long past time Slingo should be removed from her post, along with Peer Stott who has also made false claims in the past about flooding being caused by AGW. The public should not be forced to fund these charlatans.

  9. Andy DC permalink
    September 7, 2015 6:10 pm

    That bottom chart I suspect is cherry picked with respect to the starting date. If you went back to 1940, I assume your impression would be different, since the 1960’s and 1970’s were relatively cool in most places.

  10. September 7, 2015 7:34 pm

    Also note that they have also now put 2005 ahead of 1998.

  11. September 7, 2015 7:47 pm

    “Will you listen to them, or will you call them out for being the scumbags that they are?”

  12. 1saveenergy permalink
    September 8, 2015 9:29 am

    Paul, I don’t know how to send you info (you could do with an ‘in box’) so putting this here !

    Met Office want to ‘focus’ people on storms- (to increase fear, as boiling seas hasn’t worked)

    BBC radio 4 08/09/2015 ~ 07:24
    Hurricanes have names – so why not storms? The Met office is looking for names to give a number of storms expected over the winter – and they are appealing to the public for help. Derrick Ryall is head of the public weather service at the Met Office.
    Starts @ 1:24:40

  13. Argiris Diamantis permalink
    September 8, 2015 10:23 am

    Snow hits southern stock hard 7 September 2015
    Farmers in the lower South Island are hoping to see the back of the weekend’s snow storm, which brought this winter’s 10th snow fall.
    MetService said parts of south Otago and northern Southland received snow over the weekend, and while the worst of it is over, snow could still fall to 300 metres in those areas.
    Snow at this time of the year is not unexpected by farmers, but it arrived while animals were in the midst of lambing and calving. South Otago farm manager Tim Williams said they had about eight centimetres of snow.
    Mr Williams, who farms in the Clinton Gorge, said some of his stock are lambing and calving and while he expects to lose some, it’s too soon to know how many animals may have died.
    Mr Williams said feed was in a desperate situation as there hadn’t been any grass growth.

    • AndyG55 permalink
      September 8, 2015 11:58 am

      “feed was in a desperate situation as there hadn’t been any grass growth.”

      I suspect that this may be a recurrent issue in higher latitude over the next several decades. 😦

      While there has been a slight increased in the supply of plant food, plants also need warmth to grow.

      And that seems to be in rather short supply in some regions. 😦

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