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Satellite Temperatures Did Not Always Diverge From GISS

September 13, 2015

By Paul Homewood    


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Back in 2007, this was what the IPCC had to say about the correlation of surface and satellite temperatures:


Lower-tropospheric temperatures have slightly greater warming rates than those at the surface over the period 1958 to 2005.

The radiosonde record is markedly less spatially complete than the surface record and increasing evidence suggests that it is very likely that a number of records have a cooling bias, especially in the tropics. While there remain disparities among different tropospheric temperature trends estimated from satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU and advanced MSU) measurements since 1979, and all likely still contain residual errors, estimates have been substantially improved (and data set differences reduced) through adjustments for issues of changing satellites, orbit decay and drift in local crossing time (i.e. diurnal cycle effects). It appears that the satellite tropospheric temperature record is broadly consistent with surface temperature trends provided that the stratospheric influence on MSU channel 2 is accounted for. The range (due to different data sets) of global surface warming since 1979 is 0.16°C to 0.18°C per decade compared to 0.12°C to 0.19°C per decade for MSU estimates of tropospheric temperatures. It is likely, however, that there is slightly greater warming in the troposphere than at the surface, and a higher tropopause, with the latter due also to pronounced cooling in the stratosphere.


And this is almost exactly what we find when we check Woodfortrees.




Indeed, the trends are identical at 0.16C/decade. 

Now fast forward to today, and we find that since 2005, GISS has carried on increasing at 0.09C/decade, whilst RSS has not gone up at all.









Some people would call it fraud.

  1. AndyG55 permalink
    September 13, 2015 9:52 pm

    Apart from the 1997-2001 El Nino event which added about 0.26ºC to the lower troposphere, there has been NO WARMING at all in the satellite temperature record.

  2. September 13, 2015 9:54 pm

    Yes, Paul, thanks. Most people should call it fraud, but they don’t know.
    Nice of you to bring back the good old scientific times, when meteorology and climate physics were advancing freely.

  3. September 13, 2015 10:44 pm

    Paul, I’ve been looking at the same thing the last several days in somewhat more detail. The bottom line is that the satellite record and surface thermometer record really agree pretty well. But GISS LOTI has accelerated these last 10 years, leaving HadCRUT4 and the satellites behind.

  4. September 14, 2015 3:27 am

    Have there been any papers looking at this divergence between the surface temperature record and the lower troposphere temperature?

  5. cheshirered permalink
    September 14, 2015 10:07 am

    ‘Satellite Temperatures Did Not Always Diverge From GISS….’

    Until the pause started to get so long it became IMPOSSIBLE to ignore, and began threatening the very concept of AGW theory.

  6. Le Gin permalink
    September 14, 2015 11:58 am

    Is it just me or does there seem to be a concerted effort in the media over the last week to bolster the AGW position?…article in the Graun today tells us 2015 is “the hottest year evah” and predicts (sic) 2016 to be even hotter, and various other articles in other parts of the media conveying the same message (including Roger Horrible on the Today programme this morning).

  7. September 14, 2015 11:58 am

    The Daily Telegraph was racking up publicity for the Paris party with Amber adding her nauseating voice to the melee

  8. September 19, 2015 1:25 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.


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