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State Of The UK Climate 2014

September 24, 2015

By Paul Homewood 


ScreenHunter_2660 Sep. 24 11.22


As promised, a closer look at the State of the UK Climate report.


The section on temperature tells us nothing we did not already know, and with claims of all the top ten warmest years have occurred since 1990, is highly predictable.




They do show, however, a couple of interesting graphs regarding rainfall.


First, the England & Wales series annual trends. As I have reported on many occasions previously, not a lot seems to be happening. There appears to be a very small trend increase since the 18thC, but insignificant in the overall view of things.

Within the annual data, there has been an increasing trend for winter rainfall, and decreasing in summer, though most of this change looks to have taken place before the 20thC.




There is also a graph looking at rainfall intensity, ie average rain/rainday.

As I have also noted before, as flood experts at Durham University have found, the 1960-90 period was a “flood-poor” one, compared to the 19th and early 20thC. The choice of 1960 as a start date, means that the results are highly misleading.

And, as can be seen from the trend line, rainfall intensity has not increased since around 1990.







They have this interesting little section on storms, which is self explanatory.

Clearly storminess last year was nowhere as bad as some of the earlier years, and the lack of “any compelling trends in max speed gusts in the last four decades” speaks volumes.






Finally, they offer this composite graph of sea level change, based on five stations and adjusted for land movement, and comment:


A UK sea level index (Figure 38) for the period since 1901 provides a best estimate trend of 1.4 ± 0.2 mm/yr for sea level rise, corrected for land movement (Woodworth et al, 2009).




The rate of rise seems pretty much constant since 1900, with no sign of any recent acceleration in recent decades. Indeed, there has been very little change at all in the last decade or so.

There is nothing there to support the more alarmist claims about sea level rise.

  1. Eliza permalink
    September 24, 2015 5:29 pm

    Ot but I think this is very important in fact it shows an alarmingly high percentage 31% of American are convinced AGW is a TOTAL SCAM according to this recent poll by Bloomberg
    Just eyeballing the data you could surmise that only 50% are possibly AGW believers

    A full 31% of Americans believe that AGW is an Hoax/Fraud see Bloomberg poll recent. This is an ENORMOUS amount of people. This is simply going to grow every year. If I was a major “climate scientist” in any way associated with the scam I would get out now because you are possibly going to go to jail in the next 10 years

    Click to access 150923_wednesday_2121165.pdf

  2. September 24, 2015 9:55 pm

    Soon children won’t know what the Met Office is.

  3. September 25, 2015 7:20 am

    The title belies the absurdity of the topic, Climate is defined by a very long tern set of conditions, certainly not significant over 1 year or within the memory of a single life or even the 300+ some years of US records.

  4. September 25, 2015 7:22 am

    Consider too the historic record of sea level rise:

    Assuming the obvious, that global warming will cause direct melting of polar ice caps, let’s look at the RATE of sea level increase since the mid-1800s. Google this search: Battery NOAA Sea Level. The NOAA chart will show a strict linear trend of sea level increase, quite obviously not the least bit influenced by the world population increase from 1 billion to 7 billion since the beginning of that data measurement. (This is likely a trend that began with the last melting of glaciers 12,000 years ago.) Given that burning of hydrocarbons MUST have increased at least an order of magnitude in that time, the data completely mitigate against any conclusion that there has been influence of man on sea level rise and thus global warming.

  5. Coeur de Lion permalink
    September 25, 2015 2:11 pm

    Is the Met Office backtracking on its alarmism? The ‘climate’ part of its website is still alarmist, but I wonder if there’s a smidgeon of self-preservation creeping in as the facts gain traction?

  6. Kelvin Vaughan permalink
    September 25, 2015 4:05 pm

    With the increasing number of wind farms taking the energy out of the wind our grandchildren will not know what gales are.

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