Met Office Forecasts Contain A Warming Bias
By Paul Homewood
At the end of each month, the Met Office publish their 3-month outlook for temperature and precipitation. So far this year, for their outlooks from Jan-Mar, through to Sep-Nov, seven have predicted temperatures higher than the 1981-2010 norm, with the other two forecasting temperatures around normal:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/9/s/A3_plots-temp-JFM_v2.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/d/n/A3_plots-temp-FMA_v2.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/5/h/A3_plots-temp-MAM.PDF
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/4/A3_plots-temp-AMJ_v2.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/l/l/A3_plots-temp-MJJ_v2.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/k/A3_plots-temp-JJA_v2.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/7/A3_plots-temp-JAS_v2.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/k/b/A3_plots-temp-ASO_v2.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/d/A3_plots-temp-SON_v2.pdf
And the actual temperatures?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomalygraphs
Six of the nine months have in fact been cooler than average.
As the Met Office say, the forecasts rely on observations, several numerical models and expert judgement. Clearly there is a bias towards forecasting warmer temperatures which reflects a fundamental flaw in either their models or judgement.
Trackbacks
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Did Sir Fred Hoyle* “blow the cover”* on *Stalin’s biggest lie* in his 1994 autobiography?
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Did_Sir_Fred_Hoyle_BLOW_THE_COVER_ON_THE_BIGGEST_LIE_in_STALINS_SCIENCE
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/281017812
Oliver, Do you have to keep bringing Stalin into every post on every blog on every blog-site ???
I know its your pet subject, but it has become a bit tedious.
I’m 97% sure Stalin was not involved with the met-office predictions for 2015
Did Sir Fred Hoyle “blow the cover” on Stalin’s biggest lie in his 1994 autobiography?
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Did_Sir_Fred_Hoyle_BLOW_THE_COVER_ON_THE_BIGGEST_LIE_in_STALINS_SCIENCE
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/281017812
” Clearly there is a bias towards forecasting warmer temperatures which reflects a fundamental flaw in either their models or judgement”
Heh…..
Never in the field of human bullshit has so much been told to so many by so few
Thanks, Paul. It’s always good to look at data.
“Clearly there is a bias towards forecasting warmer temperatures which reflects a fundamental flaw in either their models or judgement.” Yes, the IPCC models are fundamentally flawed because they model a planet with a surface temperature controlled by the amount of CO2 in its atmosphere. On the other hand, their judgement is not flawed, it is in accord to the most grant money they can get; it’s fine for them.
Oh Paul.
“Clearly there is a bias towards forecasting warmer temperatures which reflects a fundamental flaw in their models and/or judgement.”
I think there needs to be a revision away from pure climate modelling when forecasting ahead, at least in the medium term. By combining recent climatology with modelling I am sure they could arrive at a much better ‘guess’ at what the next month will be like. Since last December, using local data for my area going back to 1797, every month I’ve had a stab at what the next month’s temperature, rainfall and sunshine will be like – using probabilities to reflect confidence. So far I’ve only been completely ‘wrong’ once – in July when the signal for a warm to very warm month was overwhelming. Of course it could just be simple climatology that has made the forecasts correct to a certain degree.
“Clearly there is a bias towards forecasting warmer temperatures which reflects a fundamental flaw in either their models or judgement”. My money is on the models, which we know are fundamentally flawed and so produce warmer temperatures than actuality. Of course, their judgement is also flawed.
Careful mate ..7 is quite a limited sample size
So in the claim “Clearly there is a bias towards forecasting warmer temperatures which reflects a fundamental flaw in either their models or judgement.” should NOT be made with the certainty it is
I’d call BS on the strong claim ..(by BS I mean Brandon Shollenberger)