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Arctic Multi Year Ice Increasing

October 28, 2015

By Paul Homewood   




News of a new study from Pierre:


Reader Dennis A. sent me the following abstract of a new paper by Haas et al: Ice thickness in the Northwest Passage – Haas – 2015 – Geophysical Research Letters – Wiley Online Library. It turns out that the Arctic is far less ice free than many thought or expected just some years ago. So wrong can the models be!

More Arctic ice and up to 1.5°C colder!
Navigable NWP postponed 40 years!

The study finds that in 2014 “more ice survived the summer as MYI than in the nine most recent years” and it was only “slightly less than during 1968–2015 on average (Figure S5)“.

Also “between November 2014 and April 2015, winter air temperatures were between −0.5°C and −1.5°C colder than during 1980–2010.”


Read the rest here.


This bears out what I was saying back in April, when I pointed how, according to NSIDC data which they had tried to suppress, multi-year had been steadily increasing since 2008.



  1. Gary H permalink
    October 29, 2015 5:23 am

    Here’s another look at the same topic.

    Sure seems to have been a fork in the road – in about 2007. That’s about when the Arctic Ocean circulation flipped (per NASA report). That’s also about when the decades long downward trend (which reversed the decades long expansion trend that preceded) in Arctic sea ice extent took a pause, and perhaps a reversal (would be right on cue, BTW). Since 2007 – 7 out of 8 years had a larger extent of 1 year ice at the summer minimum. Same for 2nd year ice.

    For ice older than 2 years, all 8 years since have a larger extent than did 2007.

    Likewise the downward trend since 2007 for sea ice extent – is not negative.

    Link is here: NSIDC_ Summer ice survival thru 2015 – (Perhaps Paul might post the graphic).

  2. roger permalink
    October 29, 2015 10:21 am

    The graph above can in no way be described as an exemplar of the OED definition of the word SPIRAL.
    It may however be a good example of newspeak as practiced by the venerable University of East Anglia.
    /sarc- or possibly not!

  3. Bloke down the pub permalink
    October 29, 2015 11:05 am

    Ice thickness in the Northwest passage is strongly correlated to wind direction, When the ice is relatively thin, it is prone to being blown out of the NWP, but equally, when the wind blows in the right direction, ice thickness can increase rapidly. Personally, I wouldn’t use the NWP as an indicator of future trends.

  4. October 29, 2015 3:47 pm

    Thanks, Paul. Good information, as always.

    Also, the Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly measurements have been recovering since 2012, See graphic at

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