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Indonesia’s Climate Plan “Inadequate”

November 6, 2015

By Paul Homewood     

 

 

 

24 days to Paris, and still no climate plans from Saudi Arabia or Qatar. But let’s have a look at Indonesia, 12th biggest emitter of CO2.

  

Their INDC boils down to this. 

 

image

http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx

 

Assuming a binding, global agreement, involving of course lots of aid money, they pledge to cut emissions by 41% from BAU by 2030. BAU, they explain, is 2881 GtCO2e in 2030.

 

 

image

 

So we can do a few simple sums.

 

A reduction of 41% would bring emissions down to 1699 MtCO2e, just 5% below 2005 levels.

 

However, this is not the whole story.

The Plan covers emissions from all sources, including LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry). As they state, 63% of all emissions have arisen from the latter in recent years.

Although there is no detail in the Plan, it is inevitable that much of the emissions cut will derive from land use, ie cutting down less forest. While this may be laudable, the Carbon Tracker website has considerable reservations:

 

Major issues with deforestation data and emissions

While the Indonesian Government’s data shows relatively stable deforestation emissions for the last decade, independent scientific sources indicate a strong increase in deforestation over the same time period. This has happened despite the fact that Indonesia has, temporarily, (2010–2016), prohibited the clearing of primary forest and the conversion of peat lands.

While the Government BAU projections for the future show emissions from deforestation as constant – or slightly decreasing over time – this does not appear to reflect the reality on the ground at present, which points towards increasing deforestation. We find that extrapolating the trend of forest cover loss from one recent study which shows a 20% increase in deforestation annually between 2001 and 2012, results in projected emission levels of above 1.7 GtCO2/year from LULUCF by 2030, roughly twice as high as all emissions in the sector under the Indonesian Government’s BAU.  A draft version of Indonesia’s INDC indicated plans to protect 12.7 million hectares of forest areas by designating it to social forestry, ecosystem restoration, conservation and sustainable use (Government of Indonesia 2015). The final INDC no longer mentions these plans.

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia.html

 

 

If official estimates of deforestation have been so unreliable in the last few years, there can be little confidence about the accuracy of the data going forward.

 

 

 

Coal Power

Carbon Tracker also has concerns about the programme to develop coal power:

 

At the same time, however, Indonesia is pushing the construction of new coal-fired power plants to meet rapidly increasing electricity demand and make use of domestic coal resources. In total, the electricity generation capacity is expected to increase by 35 GW by 2019, of which a large share—20 GW—is expected to be met through new coal-fired power plants (Enerdata 2015). Our current policy projections already take into account a drastic increase of primary energy, with coal increasing strongly as well. The planned capacity is thus included in the scenario already.

An installed capacity of 20GW of coal-fired power plants will emit roughly 160 MtCO2e/a, and thus be responsible for a large share of the overall increase of emissions in the next years. The number reflects a share of 20% of total national emissions excl. LULUCF in 2020. Unless the coal plants are decommissioned before the end of their lifetime, they will continue to emit this amount throughout the next 50 years. Scenarios compatible with holding temperature increase below 2°C indicate that decarbonisation of the power sector is required by 2050 (CAT 2014). .

To supply the coal power plants with fuel, Indonesia aims at exploiting own reserves. In its INDC it also mentions, that the extraction of fossil fuels contributes to land use change emissions. This is an additional negative impact on Indonesia’s forests, which are already under much pressure.

  

Using this logic, an extra 35 GW will add 280 MtCO2e, to the 2005 figure of 666 MtCO2e. (To put this into perspective, total generating capacity from thermal fuels was 40 GW in 2012, according to the EIA.)  

Coal consumption has already more than doubled since 2005 anyway, causing most of the increase of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels of 190 Mt, a rise of 53%.  (Oil consumption is up 22% and gas 7%).

I think we can safely take it as a given that any coal power plants being built now will still be around long after 2030.

     

  

image

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

 

 

  

 

Business As Usual 

According to Carbon Tracker, the BAU share of forestry in emissions in 2030 is just under 30%, about 860 MtCO2e. This would be 25% lower than 2005 levels.

However, using the same logic, emissions from fossil fuels would rise to 2020 MtCO2e by 2030, from 666 MtCO2e in 2005.

Although the Plan gives no detail on the relative emissions cuts in each sector, if we assume the pledged 41% reduction is across the board, fossil fuel emissions would still be 79% higher than 2005. This would represent an increase of 525 MtCO2e, and would appear to be consistent with the planned increase in coal power capacity.

Which brings us back to LULUCF. Carbon Tracker show below the massive gap that exists between what the government is saying about deforestation, and what the independent experts are.

 

image

 

 

If the independent experts are right, emissions in 2030 may be end up being much higher than Indonesia’s Plan suggests.

 

So, to sum up, it looks certain that fossil fuel emissions will increase substantially under the Plan, but will (maybe) be offset by a slowdown in the rate of deforestation back to the levels of the 1990’s.

In this respect, it is worth recalling that, since 1997 when the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, fossil fuel emissions have already more doubled in Indonesia, and will likely triple by 2030.

No wonder Carbon Tracker rate Indonesia’s Plan as “Inadequate”.   

9 Comments leave one →
  1. November 6, 2015 6:41 pm

    The small islands are getting gas turbine generators:

    http://www.genewsroom.com/press-releases/ge-brings-fast-power-indonesia%E2%80%99s-sulawesi-island-its-power-plant-wheels-281667

    Probably also many diesel generators.

  2. manicbeancounter permalink
    November 6, 2015 9:22 pm

    I believe I have derived the 2030 estimated BAU of 2881 MtCO2e.
    19% of the 1800 MtCO2e (=336) emissions in 2005 is from fossil fuel emissions. This equates exactly to the CDIAC figure. The inflate it by 6.0% per year to 2030, giving 1431 MtCO2. 6.0% is the desired economic growth rate.
    81% of 1800 is 1458 – the non-fossil fuel emissions. Round this down 1450 and assume constant until 2030. 1450+1431 = 2881.

    How do you get a 29% reduction in BAU?
    Most of the rest is from forest fires. The principle reason for the fires is for land clearance to grow palm oil. The phenomenal growth output of recent years will decrease, as Indonesia now has over 50% of global output. So assume a 3.34% annual decrease for 2005 to 2030 to get the 29% overall reduction.

    How do you get from a 29% reduction against BAU to a 41%?
    For the BAU, fossil fuel emissions were assumed to grow at the same rate as economic growth. For most countries emissions growth is slower than economic growth, especially as the economy matures. Therefore assume emissions growth for 2005-2030 is 4.5%, three-quarters of assumed 6.0% economic growth.

    The figures fall into place remarkably well.
    http://manicbeancounter.com/2015/10/31/indonesia-outflanks-the-climate-activists-in-its-indc-submission/

  3. manicbeancounter permalink
    November 6, 2015 10:05 pm

    Something else is remarkable about the figures. Indonesia’s 2005 emissions of 1800 MtCO2e. I have found four other estimates, ranging from 1171 to 2829 MtCO2e. Indonesia’s own BAPPENAS (National Development Planning Agency) has a figure of 1400 MtCO2e.
    But what falls into place is that a 41% reduction on 2881 comes to 1699.79. Rounded to the nearest whole number, that is a 100 MtCO2e reduction from 1800. The figures are contrived to give out a message – Indonesia can reduce its emissions, but lots of outside financial assistance is needed for a poor country to achieve this.
    This manipulation of the figures is so Indonesia is left alone for more important objectives stated in its INDC Submission – of maintaining a fragile democracy and promoting strong economic growth to lift millions out of poverty.
    http://manicbeancounter.com/2015/11/06/world-resources-institute-and-indonesian-emission-figures/

  4. Bloke down the pub permalink
    November 7, 2015 11:11 am

    Presumably their land use change will fall to zero when they run out of rain forest.

  5. johnmarshall permalink
    November 7, 2015 11:18 am

    They could turn off those volcanoes. They produce more CO2 than Indonesia. Problem solved.

  6. AndyG55 permalink
    November 7, 2015 11:21 am

    Not only is Indonesia a large emitter, but they overtook Australia as a coal producer in 2013.

    Despite being an Aussie.. I still say..

    Well done Indonesia 🙂

    • catweazle666 permalink
      November 7, 2015 3:16 pm

      LONG LIVE KING COAL!

  7. November 7, 2015 3:54 pm

    Here on the ground in Borneo it seems like they write all the green stuff into the school textbooks… then when it comes to action ..they don’t give a F. about the environment
    .. When I pass a factory or power station they don’t seem to be bothering with scrubbers much ..there’s particulates going straght into the atmosphere.
    20 years of annual mega-haze ..FFS

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