Mexico’s Climate Plan – No Change
By Paul Homewood
Mexico’s plans to fight global warming appear to have garnered a fairly good press. John Gummer, for instance, was bragging off about their Climate Act last year, whilst Carbon Tracker award the country a “Medium” rating for their INDC, although this only means:
not yet consistent with limiting warming below 2oC unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
Nevertheless this is better than most countries have managed. Interestingly, the only countries to exceed a medium rating are these. I don’t think they will save the planet on their own!
But back to Mexico! This is their INDC commitment:
Once again, we see commitment to a reduction from BAU, so what does this actually mean? They go on to give us the BAU baseline:
So we can calculate that the Conditional Reduction of 36% would leave emissions at 710 MtCO2e in 2030.
They have also introduced a separate target for black carbon, basically soot, but according to Carbon Tracker:
While health and environmental benefits of such reductions would be immediate and clear, the effects on global warming are likely to be close to zero, not additional and extremely uncertain, as opposed to the effects of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Nowhere does the INDC give any numbers for current or historical CO2 equivalent emissions, but we do know what it was in 2005, thanks to the GLOBE Climate Legislation Study, published last year.
Including LULUCF, as the 2030 targets do, the figure for 2005 was 712 MtCO2e, effectively the same as the Conditional Target for 2030 of 712 MtCO2e.
According to CDIAC, fossil fuel emissions have barely altered since 2005, up by just 7%, so Mexico’s plan is pretty much “as you were”.