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BBC Ignore Satellite Data – I Wonder Why?

November 9, 2015

By Paul Homewood

  

h/t Avro607

 

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34763036

 

Global temperatures are set to rise more than one degree above pre-industrial levels according to the UK’s Met Office.

Figures from January to September this year are already 1.02C above the average between 1850 and 1900.

If temperatures remain as predicted, 2015 will be the first year to breach this key threshold.

The world would then be half way towards 2C, the gateway to dangerous warming.

The new data is certain to add urgency to political negotiations in Paris later this month aimed at securing a new global climate treaty.

 

For researchers, confusion about the true level of temperatures in the 1750s, when the industrial revolution began and fossil fuels became widely used, means that an accurate assessment of the amount the world has warmed since then is very difficult.

To get over this problem, the Met Office use an average of the temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900, which they argue makes their analysis more accurate. Their latest temperature information comes from a dataset jointly run by the Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

The HadCRUT database showed that in the first nine months of this year, the global mean temperature had just gone above 1C, hitting 1.02 with a error factor of plus or minus 0.11C.

Scientists say that the one degree mark will be broken in 2015 because of a combination of carbon emissions and the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon.

"We have seen a strong El Nino develop in the Tropical Pacific this year and that will have had some impact on this year’s global temperature," said Stephen Belcher, director of the Met Office Hadley Centre.

"We’ve had similar natural events in the past, yet this is the first time we’re set to reach the 1C marker and it’s clear that it is human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory."

 

For some reason, the Met Office still insist on ignoring the much more accurate satellite data, which conclusively shows that 2015 is nowhere near as warm as 1998, or, for that matter, 2010.

 

 

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http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

 

image

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta3

 

More important are the 12-month running averages, as El Ninos don’t come and go on a calendar year basis.

 

image

image

 

 

It is pretty certain that the current 12-month averages will continue to rise for a few months yet, and will probably get close to 2010 levels. Indeed, it would be amazing if they did not, given that the current El Nino has already eclipsed the 2009/10 event for intensity and duration.

 

ts.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

What happens to the El Nino in the next few months is anybody’s guess, but the October data suggests that it may already have peaked.  If so, we can probably expect temperatures to peak in the next couple of months, in which case the 12-month running average will get nowhere that of 1998.

 

 

It was only two years ago that the Met Office assured us that

 

“Changes in temperature observed in surface data records are corroborated by records of temperatures in the troposphere recorded by satellites”

 

Apparently now they are not concerned that their figures are no longer corroborated.

 

But, of course, the BBC have let the cat out of the bag:

 

The new data is certain to add urgency to political negotiations in Paris later this month aimed at securing a new global climate treaty.

 

Enough said, I think!

24 Comments leave one →
  1. Green Sand permalink
    November 9, 2015 4:50 pm

    Could the strap line also be:-

    “Global temperatures are set to rise more than one degree above Little Ice Age levels according to the UK’s Met Office.”

    • November 9, 2015 4:54 pm

      I noticed there was a complete absence of mention of the LIA? How many people would like to go back to the conditions written about by Dickens and shown by many famous artists?

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      November 9, 2015 5:02 pm

      Personally I’m worried that 1’C is not enough, I’d be a lot happier at 2’C. A return to the LIA is more worrying than any other climate scenario.

      • Bloke down the pub permalink
        November 10, 2015 11:12 am

        When I heard Fiona Bruce spouting this rubbish, I was moved to contact BBC news and I made just that point.

  2. November 9, 2015 5:02 pm

    Thanks, Paul. Of course they have to ignore satellite-based data sets, because all data contradicting the alarm has to be ignored. The Earth has to have a fever because it’s sick with a human infestation. We carbon-based creatures are supposed to be killing it,

    Let me recommend Bob Tisdale’s – New Book: “On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1”, a free PDF at https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/11/03/new-book-on-global-warming-and-the-illusion-of-control-part-1/
    For easy access the interactive Table of Contents lists more than 60 chapters, it is profusely illustrated, showing the data. (November 3, 2015). And it is free!

  3. Charlie Moncur permalink
    November 9, 2015 5:24 pm

    During the Napoleonic Wars late 1700’s until 1815 spreading alarm and panic with false information of invasion was punishable by death. Might be a good idea to re-introduce this statute and cull some of the BBC harbingers of doom!!!

  4. November 9, 2015 5:44 pm

    ‘it’s clear that it is human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory.’

    From the ‘because we say so’ school of thinking. Where’s the attribution evidence?

    • BLACK PEARL permalink
      November 9, 2015 7:25 pm

      Just bounced an email to the Met Office on this statement asking if the quote was actually true or just another spin, / miss quote or lie by the BBC, being as they’ve had so many of late.

    • November 9, 2015 8:55 pm

      Also from the “because we say so” school of thinking:

      “2015 will be the first year to breach this key threshold.”

      What is “key” about that threshold?

  5. November 9, 2015 6:31 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    Closing down sale….last few days😉

  6. A C Osborn permalink
    November 9, 2015 6:35 pm

    More Paris is coming garbage.

  7. michael hart permalink
    November 9, 2015 6:45 pm

    The Met Office and BBC are being deceitful in several ways. Even after setting aside the many technical caveats, about half of the warming occurred before humans were claimed to have any significant effect at all on the climate. It is wilful deceit. They know it, and don’t care.

  8. November 9, 2015 7:52 pm

    “Cause they want to keep lying?

  9. November 9, 2015 7:54 pm

    The BBC should just be sold off to help pay for the national depth that their anti-industry views created.

  10. CheshireRed permalink
    November 9, 2015 8:18 pm

    Pre-Paris propaganda is already reaching absurd levels and I bet it hasn’t peaked yet either. Why are the Met Office briefing the BBC on what ‘may’, ‘might’ or ‘could’ happen to this years weather record, and in what way is potential weather BBC-standard news – if not to prop up their agenda?

    Likewise the Guardian’s environment pages, which are jam-packed with more Paris propaganda than Goebbels could’ve dreamt of.

    Christ I can’t wait for the day this lot collapses – preferably in the dock at the Old Bailey.

  11. john cooknell permalink
    November 9, 2015 8:57 pm

    The 1deg temp rise should be adjusted for the reduction in “days of fog”. Between 1850 and 1900 there were many more “days of fog” in industrialised countries/areas than there are now.

    Most reliable measurements made in the early part of the record were in industrialised countries or areas.

    My hypothesis is that if such an adjustment was made there would be no trend.

  12. AndyG55 permalink
    November 9, 2015 9:00 pm

    The anti-CO2 cult have failed badly as an anti-CO2 cult.

    China, india, Indonesia, several south African countries, Germany, Japan, Korea, and many others too numerous to list, are ALL planning big increases in CO2 emissions.

    These with TOTALLY SWAMP any slight drop in emissions in the western world.

    There will continue to be a rapid increase in anthropogenic CO2.

    And there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that the agw cultists of the world can do about it.🙂

  13. November 10, 2015 4:35 am

    If alarmists don’t want to be thought of deceitful then they should stop doing deceitful things.
    It’s 2015 and we have systems for getting to the truth : The scientific method, open debate without the suppressing of challengers, giving full context of data, not cherrypicking data etc.

    Yet alarmists continue to use these tricks and not call out their own side, so whatever the truth is on Climate Catastrophe Theory many people on their side have shown they cannot be trusted.

  14. Charlie Moncur permalink
    November 10, 2015 10:01 am

    The US senate has questioned NOAA’s manipulation of temperature data and threatened criminal prosecution if they do not get the data and correspondence on which NOAA’s opinion is based. When will the BBC to be hauled into court for fraud and corruption of truth? One way to get BBC’s attention is by mass non-payment of licence fee!!! The courts could not handle the ensuing prosecutions of individuals if hundred of thousands participated. Popular mobilisation works for such organisations as 38 Degrees who raise petitions for change. (recent tax credit case in question). Just a thought?

  15. November 10, 2015 2:16 pm

    There is no mention of this report at the MO news blog
    http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/category/met-office-news/

    This is just another Biased Bullshit Citation made up news story. These people get paid for this with our money…….

Trackbacks

  1. Peter Sissons and the BBC Approach to News | Wolsten
  2. BBC Ignore Satellite Data – I Wonder Why? | ajmarciniak

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