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Three Months Of Storms?

November 9, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

   

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11983384/Three-months-of-storms-set-to-batter-UK.html

 

There was a time when the Telegraph was a serious paper:

 

Britain will be battered by three months of storms which could start within days when the biggest Super El Nino in 144 years hits the West.

A Met Office forecast warns of potential flooding caused by more than one and a half foot of rain, with councils and emergency services told to be on standby for what will "more likely than not" become "the strongest ever" El Nino on record.

The forecast – which predicts gale-force winds and freezing -14C temperatures in early 2016 – serves as a grim reminder of the winter of 2013, which wreaked chaos across the UK and left 17 people dead.

The report, obtained by the Sun, says: "The risk of spells of windy or stormy weather is greater than usual. There is clear shift towards above-average rainfall.

"El Nino moderately increases the probability of increased frequency of Atlantic depressions crossing the UK and wetter-than-average conditions."

The Met Office also warned of a severe drop in temperatures in the New Year caused by "sudden stratospheric warnings" where bitter easterly winds chill Britain.

 

Water streams down the roof of Dawlish Station, Devon

Water streams down the roof of Dawlish Station, Devon  Photo: MATT CARDY/GETTY IMAGES

The last El Nino, six years ago, saw the UK crippled by the worst winter for decades with harsh frosts, sub-zero temperatures and heavy snow setting in from early December and lasting until March.

A Met Office spokesperson said: "This year’s El Niño started to grow in April and it has now become a strong, mature event similar to the landmark 1997-8 event.

"Typically, growth will peak around the end of the year and decline during the first half of the following year.

"Currently, the outlook for El Niño is for further growth over the next two months."

 

Well, maybe not! This is the 3-month outlook, just published last week, which the article refers to:

 

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

 

Above average rainfall? Maybe. A risk of colder weather in January? Well, who would have thought!

But battered by 3 months of storms? Really? And heaven knows what this Super El Nino is, which is going to hit the west in the next few days!

And a foot and a half of rain? Where do they get this drivel? Their article they link to makes no mention of it.

 

The Met Office is rather more circumspect! This is what the Sun reported:

 

The Met Office said its forecast was to brief agencies who needed it.

A spokesman said: “There are suggestions of an increased risk of wet stormy weather. But there will be some periods of drier spells.

“It looks like being more unsettled than average, but a bit milder. However there will be cold spells.

“When you forecast this far ahead, it is always more uncertain.”

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6733467/Worst-storms-for-144-years-on-the-way-and-will-last-for-three-months.html

 

And what sort of weather did the Super El Nino of 1997/8 bring?

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

 

Rainfall for November to January was remarkably unremarkable.

 

As ever with British weather, be prepared for anything!

16 Comments leave one →
  1. November 9, 2015 3:01 pm

    Paul,BBC today.A Met.Off. Prof. says we have hit 1deg.warming,half way to the UN forecast of 2deg,and now 2.7deg.by end of century.
    Plus hottest year ever,and max.precipitation.Plus more ramblings of 0% fossil fuels by end of century.
    Do not know how else to give you the heads up.
    No sceptic there to explain that it is a lot of utter garbage.

  2. November 9, 2015 3:42 pm

    Thanks, Paul.
    “It looks like being more unsettled than average, but a bit milder. However there will be cold spells.”
    Is this an example of prudent weather forecasting, or is it Sybil’s work?

  3. NeilC permalink
    November 9, 2015 4:03 pm

    Wetter/drier, milder/colder, windier/calmer, higher/lower pressure, I don’t know how anyone can plan anything on forecasts like these. So what’s the point.

    • November 10, 2015 3:02 pm

      That’s the whole point. Whatever happens they can claim to have forecast it.

  4. Green Sand permalink
    November 9, 2015 4:13 pm

    “There was a time when the Telegraph was a serious paper:”

    Paul never a truer statement, if it wasn’t for somebody else paying the subscription I would have binned it years ago!

    This article is typical, it is a “sudden stratospheric warming” not “warning” but of course Ms Steafel knew that and it is just a spelling /sarc

    The link “warns of potential flooding caused by more than one and a half foot of rain,” leads to a previous Telegraph “sky is falling” missive that has no mention (that I can find) of one and a half foot of rain.

    The link “severe drop in temperatures in the New Year” leads to another Telegraph puff piece entitled “Weather Watch: a foggy spell in London town” which funnily enough is about fog in London and has nothing about a drop in temperatures in the New Year, severe or not!

    The link “worst winter for decades” simply leads to the Telegraph’s own “Weather forecast for the UK and cities around the world. ” for 9th November 2015!

    This not sloppy journalism, it is a joke. No wonder comments are not allowed. It is also the second such load of nonsense from the same person in the last 2 days:-

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11976698/UK-weather-Britain-braces-for-furious-storm-battering.html

  5. November 9, 2015 4:15 pm

    “The Met Office also warned of a severe drop in temperatures in the New Year caused by “sudden stratospheric warnings” where bitter easterly winds chill Britain.”
    A drop in temperature ” caused by sudden stratospheric warnings.
    I think that should be “sudden stratospheric WARMING”.
    Pity nobody at the Telegraph noticed the typo (or spelling checker error).

    • November 9, 2015 4:34 pm

      I doubt they know what stratospheric warming is!

      • November 9, 2015 4:51 pm

        Judging from her range of articles, in looks like she is a “Jill of all trades”,
        (and master of none).

  6. November 9, 2015 4:40 pm

    The Telegraph report looks like somebody put it together after consuming rather too much Scotch. The best, most comprehensive analysis on El Nino that I’ve seen recently is by sirgeogy. It’s very long but explores all the avenues. And, from my own study of it, winter 09/10 is the only cold winter that has followed a strong El Nino.

    http://rgsweather.com/2015/11/01/el-nino-how-does-it-impact-uk-winter-weather/

    • J Martin permalink
      November 9, 2015 7:59 pm

      And that winter could perhaps more likely have been down to the two years without sunspots that preceded it. The first such case observed by modern science. More to follow at the next minimum in about 6 years time perhaps.

    • November 10, 2015 3:05 pm

      The Met Office forecast also looks like it was put together by someone who had consumed too much Scotch also.

  7. Green Sand permalink
    November 9, 2015 4:40 pm

    Having had a moan about the Telegraph, I have to admit the following letter brought a smile:-

    “SIR – The fact that last Sunday’s temperature broke the all-time record for November, which was set in 1946, is worrying.

    The winter of 1946-7 was the worst on record in Britain. I have just ordered a new set of winter tyres.

    Adrian Waller
    Woodsetts, South Yorkshire ”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/11977928/Letters-Unaccountable-judges-must-not-have-the-final-say-over-surveillance.html

    • November 9, 2015 4:50 pm

      This anticylonic October was remarkably similar to 1946 – who’s to say February 2016 could match that record-breaking month. Enhanced chance of a SSW this winter, too!
      October 1962 was also very anticyclonic but November turned very much colder with widespread snow after mid-month. Given that my own mean temperature is currently running 4.5C above average for November so far perhaps we could be heading for a sharp correction soon – though snow in the south in November is a very rare commodity?

      https://wordpress.com/post/43346319/3082/

      • Nicolas Merlinski. permalink
        November 9, 2015 6:41 pm

        “my own mean temperature is currently running 4.5C above average for November”

        Sir, you have flu. Go to bed immediately and stay there until March.

      • KaySen permalink
        November 15, 2015 6:47 am

        He lives!

  8. November 9, 2015 5:57 pm

    Has someone at the DT picked up an old copy of the Daily Mirror?

    ‘UK weather: Britain will be mauled by storms throughout autumn with torrential downpours, gales and floods’
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-britain-mauled-storms-6497474

    That headline appeared on September 23rd 2015. Is there a big climate conference due soon by any chance?

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