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Mild Start To November

November 14, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

It won’t have gone unnoticed for British readers that it has been an unusually mild start to the month.

I’m surprised the usual suspects have not blamed it on global warming or melting Arctic ice (though I may have missed it of course!) The reality is rather more mundane, as the Met Office’s 3-month outlook explained.

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

 

The cooling of the North Atlantic is indeed becoming markedly pronounced now, certainly in comparison with the slightly warmer than average waters to the south.

 

sst_anom

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur

 

 

This strengthened temperature gradient is the total opposite of what is predicted by the polar amplification theory, which assumes that the higher latitudes will warm faster than lower ones.

As well as setting up a westerly wind flow, this gradient also has the effect of speeding up the jetstream, which means that temperatures of the air reaching the UK are warmer still.

UK Weather Scientific has a good explanation of what has been going on here.

 

Temperatures so far this month are by no means unprecedented, as November 1938 started in very similar fashion:

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

 

1938 also experienced similar airflow, which brought with it a run of depressions. One of these blew gusts of 98 mph into the Hebrides, well above Abigail’s 84 mph yesterday.

 

image

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/archive-hidden-treasures/monthly-weather-report-1930s

 

 

  

The weather turned markedly cooler after the 19th that year, and there are indications that the same will happen next weekend. All in all, the similarities between the two years are striking.

It is perhaps just another reminder that there is nothing unprecedented when it comes to weather.

10 Comments leave one →
  1. November 15, 2015 12:11 am

    Could this situation be due to a mildly positive phase of the NAO?

    See CPC North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), CPC teleconnections
    At KNMI Monthly North Atlantic Oscillation Time series (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut), http://climexp.knmi.nl/getindices.cgi?WMO=NCEPData/cpc_nao&STATION=CPC_NAO&TYPE=i&id=someone@somewhere

  2. November 15, 2015 7:30 am

    1938 was one of those years with snowfall in November: 22nd – 24th, with 15cm falling in southern Scotland on 24th. The comparison will be interesting to consider from next weekend. Given the treatment that BBC gave Abigail, a normal winter depression, will it be a case of any snowfall in any populated centre in S Scotland getting extensive and disproportionate coverage?

    https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/2015/11/09/small-chance-of-november-snow-in-london/

    • November 15, 2015 10:36 am

      The Gore effect? He’ll no doubt be heading for Paris around that time.

      • November 15, 2015 12:33 pm

        I predict record snowfall and cold for that event.

  3. November 15, 2015 9:22 am

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

  4. rah permalink
    November 15, 2015 10:51 am

    Yep, we in most of the US have also had a milder November to start with but we’re also in for a big change. According to

    http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-november-14-2015

    basically the whole US will experience colder than normal temperatures by the last full weed of the month.

  5. Vermeer permalink
    November 15, 2015 11:20 am

    The last few weeks remind me of November 1978. Mild , stormy , high night temperatures etc. When you take a look into the NCEP Archives for November 1978 you will see very analog weather patterns.

    Later that month it started to change and what followed was a very ,very , severe winter with lots of snow all of Western Europe incl. the British Isles. Here is short impression of one of those situations from the Netherlands. Looks like this one is from mid February 1979. Northern Germany whas even worse then.

  6. Ben Vorlich permalink
    November 15, 2015 12:19 pm

    I can’t find the reference now but I read something a week or so ago that the current autumn in the UK was following 1946 and to a lesser extent 1962,

  7. eliza permalink
    November 15, 2015 1:51 pm

    The elephant in the room here is the SST temp around Antarctica

  8. Bloke down the pub permalink
    November 15, 2015 2:37 pm

    In Philip Eden’s column today, he manages to talk about changing climate, without blaming CO&#8322:.

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