Almost As Warm As November 1938!
By Paul Homewood
Early provisional figures* (1-15 November) show the first half of November has been very mild with maximum daily temperatures 3.8C above average for the UK
Central England Temperature data set shows the start to the month has been the second warmest since this record began in 1772.
Local temperature records have been broken at various stations with only November 1938 seeing a warmer start to the month.
There has been an absence of frosts in almost all areas, largely because a humid south-westerly airflow means the weather has been cloudy and there have been very few clear nights.
MeanTemp 1-15 November 2015
The increased cloud means most areas have seen very little in the way of sun, with levels well below normal across southern and central England and also south-west Scotland. At this time in the month we would expect to see 50% of the monthly average however very few places have had as much as this and the UK as a whole has seen just 32% and Wales has seen less than half the sunshine we would expect mid month. In the case of southern England it has also been remarkably dull, with some stations having only had 10 hours or less of bright sunshine in 15 days.
For many the start of the month has been wet, with the UK as a whole having had 75% of the whole months average rainfall (we would expect to see 50% at this time of the month). Parts of southern & central Scotland, the Lake District, Pennines and Snowdonia are among the areas already well above their whole-month average. However it was not a wet picture across the whole country, north-east Scotland and most of southern & eastern England have had slightly less rain than would be expected by this point in the month.
|EARLY||mean temperature||sunshine duration||precipitation|
|1-15 Nov 2015||Act||Anom||Act||Anom||Act||Anom|
For the rest of November indications are that after an unsettled week the weather will turn colder with temperatures dropping nearer to the expected average for November if not a little below. However milder conditions look likely to return for a time at the end of the month with rain and strong winds for much of the UK.
Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall & sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.
*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.
It’s nice of the Met Office to confirm my comment on Saturday that there had been a similarly mild start to November 1938.
Also worth noting that rainfall trends so far, though above average, are well short of levels set in other really wet Novembers, such as 1852, 1770 and 2000.