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Almost As Warm As November 1938!

November 16, 2015

By Paul Homewood 




Early provisional figures* (1-15 November) show the first half of November has been very mild with maximum daily temperatures 3.8C above average for the UK

Central England Temperature data set shows the start to the month has been the second warmest since this record began in 1772.

Local temperature records have been broken at various stations with only November 1938 seeing a warmer start to the month.

There has been an absence of frosts in almost all areas, largely because a humid south-westerly airflow means the weather has been cloudy and there have been very few clear nights.


MeanTemp 1-15 November 2015

MeanTemp 1-15 November 2015


The increased cloud means most areas have seen very little in the way of sun, with levels well below normal across southern and central England and also south-west Scotland. At this time in the month we would expect to see 50% of the monthly average however very few places have had as much as this and the UK as a whole has seen just 32% and Wales has seen less than half the sunshine we would expect mid month.   In the case of southern England it has also been remarkably dull, with some stations having only had 10 hours or less of bright sunshine in 15 days.

For many the start of the month has been wet, with the UK as a whole having had 75% of the whole months average rainfall (we would expect to see 50% at this time of the month). Parts of southern & central Scotland, the Lake District, Pennines and Snowdonia are among the areas already well above their whole-month average. However it was not a wet picture across the whole country, north-east Scotland and most of southern & eastern England have had slightly less rain than would be expected by this point in the month.

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-15 Nov 2015 Act Anom  Act Anom  Act Anom 
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 10.0 3.8 18.1 32 90.5 75
England 11.2 4.3 17.5 27 59.8 68
Wales 10.7 3.9 20.3 36 128.5 79
Scotland 8.0 3.0 18.4 40 132.5 80
N Ireland 9.6 3.1 18.3 34 83.1 74

For the rest of November indications are that after an unsettled week the weather will turn colder with temperatures dropping nearer to the expected average for November if not a little below.  However milder conditions look likely to return for a time at the end of the month with rain and strong winds for much of the UK.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall & sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.




It’s nice of the Met Office to confirm my comment on Saturday that there had been a similarly mild start to November 1938.

Also worth noting that rainfall trends so far, though above average, are well short of levels set in other really wet Novembers, such as 1852, 1770 and 2000.

  1. dosbrygos permalink
    November 16, 2015 6:19 pm

    Well done Paul re.1938! I wouldn’t be surprised if the Met Office saw your blog and had to be seen to include it.

  2. BLACK PEARL permalink
    November 16, 2015 6:24 pm

    Yeah I guess they’re checking out your site before committing to print now, probably saving them quite a bit of fact checking time in these days of austerity 🙂

  3. Retired Dave permalink
    November 16, 2015 8:00 pm

    “Early provisional figures* (1-15 November) show the first half of November has been very mild with maximum daily temperatures 3.8C above average for the UK”

    No Paul you have to say “above NORMAL” or it doesn’t sound scary enough.

    I heard Chris Evans this morning on Radio 2 he tells me that Cumbria had three weeks rain in 24 hours – well what does that mean exactly? Obviously CE doesn’t do weather figs so he got that from the BBC Weather Centre. I guess it means three Normal (sorry average) November weeks, but it is a woolly form of words really.

  4. Andy DC permalink
    November 17, 2015 1:18 am

    Looking at the recent GFS and ECMWF progs, looks like quite a cold snap for your neck of the woods over the upcoming weekend. I suspect that there may even be that uspeakable white thing from the past in some places as well. That should help even out the temperatures for November.

    Siberia has been extremely cold recently, as cold as -47 (F) this morning. Only in mid-November!

  5. November 17, 2015 7:26 am

    If you consider the modelled temperatures over the next two weeks, even with this cold snap this weekend, this month’s mean is certainly looking ‘top 5’, going back to 1797.


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