DECC Admit Paris Will Not Cut GHG Emissions
By Paul Homewood
You may recall I published my estimate of the effect on GHG emissions that the national submissions for Paris might have. I had already asked DECC, under FOI, for their judgement, and have just got their reply.
These numbers include all GHG, not just CO2, hence the CO2 equivalent measurement. These are not as easily measured as CO2, but according to IPCC AR5, the latest available figure for global CO2e emissions, including LULUCF, is:
So we are looking at an increase of between 5% and 15% by 2030, slightly less than my likely scenario of 21%, which excluded LULUCF.
My view is that economic growth are rarely what governments plan for, so the 15% estimate may well be closer to the reality. However, it appears that DECC has now accepted that Paris will not achieve any reduction in emissions, simply a redistribution.
The projected increase in emissions since 2005 is even more marked. Piecing it together, the EPA estimated non CO2 emissions at 10800 MtCO2e for 2005. Together with CDIAC’s CO2 numbers, we get about 37 GtCO2e for that year.
There will be no renegotiation of individual countries’ climate plans at Paris, it is simply not on the agenda. According to Kevin Anderson, we can only put another 860 MtCO2 into the atmosphere to have a chance of avoiding the dreaded 2C of warming.
At this rate, the world’s ration will all be used up by 2030.