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DECC Admit Paris Will Not Cut GHG Emissions

November 20, 2015
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By Paul Homewood  




You may recall I published my estimate of the effect on GHG emissions that the national submissions for Paris might have. I had already asked DECC, under FOI, for their judgement, and have just got their reply.




These numbers include all GHG, not just CO2, hence the CO2 equivalent measurement. These are not as easily measured as CO2, but according to IPCC AR5, the latest available figure for global CO2e emissions, including LULUCF, is:




So we are looking at an increase of between 5% and 15% by 2030, slightly less than my likely scenario of 21%, which excluded LULUCF.

My view is that economic growth are rarely what governments plan for, so the 15% estimate may well be closer to the reality. However, it appears that DECC has now accepted that Paris will not achieve any reduction in emissions, simply a redistribution.


The projected increase in emissions since 2005 is even more marked. Piecing it together, the EPA estimated non CO2 emissions at 10800 MtCO2e for 2005. Together with CDIAC’s CO2 numbers, we get about 37 GtCO2e for that year.


There will be no renegotiation of individual countries’ climate plans at Paris, it is simply not on the agenda. According to Kevin Anderson, we can only put another 860 MtCO2 into the atmosphere to have a chance of avoiding the dreaded 2C of warming.

At this rate, the world’s ration will all be used up by 2030.

  1. Joe Public permalink
    November 20, 2015 7:31 pm

    Would anyone hazard care to translate the GtCO2 (savings) number into the degC / K reduction such savings would achieve from the current global mean temperature of ~15.8°C?

    The public can relate to 15.8°C; probably 99.9999% of them have no idea what one GtCO2 is or does. (Or doesn’t do.)

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      November 21, 2015 4:11 am

      Since there is no proof that CO2 does substantially change the temperature, it is not creditable to claim that reducing CO2 emissions will do anything.

  2. CC Reader permalink
    November 20, 2015 9:57 pm

    Discovery will Change Climate Debate
    A mistake in the climate model architecture changes everything—heat trapped by extra carbon dioxide just reroutes to space from water vapor

    Dr David Evans1, 18 November 2015
    Project home:
    There is an intellectual standoff in climate change. Skeptics point to empirical evidence that disa- grees with the climate models. Yet climate scientists insist that their calculations showing a high sen- sitivity to carbon dioxide are correct—because they use well-established physics.
    Dr David Evans mapped out the architecture of the current climate models and discovered that while the underlying physics is correct, the climate scientists applied it wrongly.
    Dr David Evans earned six degrees related to modeling and applied mathematics over ten years, in- cluding a PhD from Stanford University. He was instrumental in building the carbon accounting sys- tem Australia uses to estimate carbon changes in its biosphere, for the Australian Greenhouse Office.

  3. A C Osborn permalink
    November 20, 2015 11:03 pm

    At what Financial and human suffering costs?

  4. Bloke down the pub permalink
    November 21, 2015 11:30 am

    I cannot believe that you would’ve received such a frank admission from either Ed Davey or Chris Huhne. At least the current incumbent is not as delusional as her predecessors.


  1. Paris Agreement Will Lead To Rapid Rise In CO2 Emissions | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

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