UK’s Fast Looming Power Crisis
By Paul Homewood
Further to my post earlier this week on our fast disappearing power stations, the Centre for Policy Studies has published its own report on the situation this month.
It covers a lot of ground, including impact on energy bills, but the section on generating capacity is particularly relevant.
The report lists the coal power stations, which have closed since 2012, or are due to next year.
They go on to discuss what these closures mean for UK electricity supply:
Britain’s present dispatchable electricity generating capacity now stands at just below 69,000MW. Due to the proposed closures announced throughout 2015 and into next year, by April 2016 this figure will have fallen by a further 7,400MW to just 61,600MW. This raises serious concerns for energy security. Spare generating margins are becoming perilously tight, if non-existent, for the 2016/17 winter and beyond.
In October National Grid published its 2015/2016 ‘Winter Outlook’ Report. The report calculated that the peak transmission demand forecast for the coming winter will be 54,200MW, a slight increase from last year. It is now therefore clear that the winter of 2016/17 will present the most significant challenge to maintaining affordable and available electricity supplies, as key dispatchable power plants will be closed early in March 2016. By winter 2016/17 British electricity generating capacity will have fallen below the minimum necessary margin to guarantee secure supplies of electricity generation for a growing economy. Electricity generating margins have not been this tight since the 1950’s.
National Grid are reacting to this looming crisis by spending millions of pounds to provide what it describes as ‘balancing services’ or reserves. This includes supporting the deployment of small scale and relatively inefficient localised diesel and gas fired generators, paying commercial and industrial consumers to reduce their electricity usage or switch to expensive backup generation sources at peak periods, and funding the operators of mothballed and uneconomic generating units to make them available at times of system stress. National Grid claim that these measures have secured an extra 2,400MW of extra ‘balancing services’ for winter 2015/16.
National Grid used this emergency measure for the first time in November 2015 after the unexpected shutdown of two large coal plants. The Demand Side Balancing Reserve (DSBR) was used to call on industry to reduce its power usage on Wednesday November 4 after National Grid issued the first Notice of Insufficient Margin (NISM) for three years. Electricity prices spiked with the Grid paying £2,500 per MWh to one operator, Severn Power, as it brought in emergency supplies. The present rate is under £60 per MWh.
Although the new gas-fired plant at Carrington is due on stream next year with capacity of 880 MW, this will be offset by the closure of Killingholme CCGT and Wylfa Nuclear, which have capacities of 900 and 450 MW respectively.
As I pointed out earlier, another 6 GW of coal-fired capacity could well be lost before 2020 at Aberthaw, Cottam, Lynemouth and West Burton, which have all opted out of the EU Industrial Emissions Directive. They are allowed 17500 hours of operation by 2023, but will almost certainly opt to use this allowance up as early as possible.
Furthermore, Amber Rudd’s promised execution for the remaining coal plants which have opted into the IED (Drax, Fiddlers Ferry, Rugely and Ratcliffe) may well persuade them not to hang around much longer, putting at risk another 7GW.
Mothballed Gas Fired Plant
The question has been raised of whether mothballed plant can be quickly brought back on stream. My understanding from DECC’s database is that the CPS figures for dispatchable capacity already include any such plants.
Below is the list of CCGT power stations as at May 2015, according to DECC.
AES | Ballylumford C | CCGT | 616 | 2003 | Northern Ireland |
Centrica | Barry (9) | CCGT | 235 | 1998 | Wales |
Glanford Brigg (9) | CCGT | 150 | 1993 | Yorkshire and the Humber | |
Killingholme | CCGT | 665 | 1994 | Yorkshire and the Humber | |
Langage | CCGT | 905 | 2010 | South West | |
Peterborough (9) | CCGT | 240 | 1993 | East | |
South Humber Bank | CCGT | 1310 | 1996 | Yorkshire and the Humber | |
Coolkeeragh ESB Ltd | Coolkeeragh | CCGT | 408 | 2005 | Northern Ireland |
Corby Power Ltd | Corby | CCGT | 401 | 1993 | East Midlands |
Castleford | CCGT | 56 | 2002 | Yorkshire and the Humber | |
Connahs Quay | CCGT | 1380 | 1996 | Wales | |
Cottam Development Centre | CCGT | 395 | 1999 | East Midlands | |
Enfield | CCGT | 408 | 1999 | London | |
Grain CHP * | CCGT | 1365 | 2010 | South East | |
Killingholme | CCGT | 900 | 1993 | Yorkshire and the Humber | |
Sandbach | CCGT | 56 | 1999 | North West | |
Thornhill | CCGT | 50 | 1998 | Yorkshire and the Humber | |
EDF Energy | West Burton CCGT | CCGT | 1332 | 2012 | East Midlands |
Intergen | Coryton | CCGT | 800 | 2001 | East |
Rocksavage | CCGT | 810 | 1998 | North West | |
Spalding | CCGT | 880 | 2004 | East Midlands | |
ENGIE | Deeside | CCGT | 515 | 1994 | Wales |
Saltend * | CCGT | 1200 | 2000 | Yorkshire and the Humber | |
Marchwood Power Limited (16) | Marchwood | CCGT | 842 | 2009 | South West |
MPF Operations Limited | Severn Power | CCGT | 850 | 2010 | Wales |
Baglan Bay CCGT | CCGT | 520 | 2002 | Wales | |
Sutton Bridge | CCGT | 819 | 1999 | East | |
RWE Npower Plc | Didcot B | CCGT | 1470 | 1998 | South East |
Great Yarmouth | CCGT | 420 | 2001 | East | |
Little Barford | CCGT | 720 | 1995 | East | |
Pembroke | CCGT | 2180 | 2012 | Wales | |
Staythorpe C | CCGT | 1772 | 2010 | East Midlands | |
Medway | CCGT | 700 | 1995 | South East | |
Peterhead (22) | CCGT | 1180 | 1980 | Scotland | |
Thermal: | Damhead Creek | CCGT | 805 | 2000 | South East |
Rye House | CCGT | 715 | 1993 | East | |
Shoreham | CCGT | 420 | 2000 | South East | |
Blackburn | CCGT | 59 | 2011 | North West | |
Seabank Power Limited (24) | Seabank 1 | CCGT | 812 | 1998 | South West |
Seabank 2 | CCGT | 410 | 2000 | South West |
This totals 29771 MW, which is less than the total capacity of 31994 MW shown in DECC’s summary at Dec 2014. (Both figures are supposed to be for Major Producers).
It therefore does not appear that there is any more mothballed capacity available to add to the CPS list, certainly not that could be brought on stream easily.
The full CPS report is below
Comments are closed.
Let’s pray Global Warming has made 1-in-25 winters a thing of the past.
Paul – you are so gloomy.
Are you really suggesting that this country is run by a bunch of slogan-led cretins with as much of a clue about anything as a stale biscuit.
If this was true such gross failures would soon be pointed out by the independent and unique tax-payer funded BBC. And they tell me windmills are perfectly ok and are going to save ‘the erff’
So it simply can’t be that bad can it.
Chicken Licken
OK, we all knock the BBC, but what about ITV & the MSM, have you seen those special programmes/Articles that should be being continuously on display showing how corrupt and incompetent our Government and don’t foget the Civil Service are?
No because they are all on board
With the exception of Chris Booker, James Delingpole and a couple of others there is no interest in highlighting this
I agree but I am not forced to pay for them.
It’s no mere coincidence, that the Climatic Research Unit and the School of Creative Writing are both based at the University of East Anglia.
NO, worse!
This situation has been predicted since before the mad dash for Wind & Solar and really needed action 10 to 15 years ago, instead the idiots in charge blew Billions on useless wind turbines and Solar.
At least when we had the CEGB we had a grid and generation run by Engineers instead of no nothing politicians.
If the power goes off dopey Dave is the only one to blame. Appointing dimwit Davey and prisoner Huhne to take charge of the DECC was an act of supreme neglect. It was obvious to anyone they were incompetent, and by not removing them on national security grounds he is negligent.
Sorry, but his goes back to the EU, Labour and Milliband’s Climate Change Act written by a young Green Activist and voted in by all but 3 of the country’s MPs.
@ A C Osborn.
Correct. There’s a collective responsibility here that starts with the EU – it’s their directives we’re following after all, goes through Tony Blair for appointing Nick Stern to write the Stern Review – the platform for Ed Milliband’s CC Act, written by Green fruitcake Bryony Worthington, pushed by Ed via Gordon Brown’s government and since consolidated by green uber-knobs Huhne, Davey and Clegg. Cameron has continued the push and now Rudd is neck deep too.
Chuck in dishonourable mentions for the corrupted Royal Society, University of East Anglia, Phil Jones, Reading and Exeter Uni’s, multiple green NGO advocates and of course the BBC / Guardian / Indy’ / Channel 4 media axis of the Green Blob and there you have it.
There’s about 60 people who genuinely deserve jail over this scam, and this is just in the UK.
Hope that they are going to preserve the coal fired power stations for future use as otherwise our energy mix will be all gas and wind.
The outlook is desperate and, unless DECC open their eyes, rolling power cuts will soon be the norm in the UK. But our greenness will shine and the rest of the world will be full of admiration for our martyrdom.
I’ll buy myself a stand-by generator, like all the wealthier people use in the developing world, for xmas: maybe I’ll get a payment for my 2 kW capacity.
“… all gas and wind …”
Just like our elite leaders.
So, we’re left with wind turbines and solar power! Does anyone know whether either of these 2 inventions are viable? Can they provide all our power and are they efficient, and cost effective, WITHOUT SUBSIDIES?
Neither is “viable” due to intermittency, low wind at night in the winter and you have nothing, if you add “storage” you add further inefficiency and cost.
On top of that they do not produce enough power to reproduce themselves and supply industry and domestic needs, so they are the products of the hated Fossil Fuel.
how about turning all those closed coal power stations into tourist attractions – well healed chinese and german tourists might enjoy a guided tour round a quaint old historic power station!
Too near the truth!
They turned the old steel mill at Templeborough, Rotherham into an “educational” experience a few years ago. It is now also near going bust!
They already have with Battersea in London.
That’s very sad. I remember working in Templeborough many years ago. An incredible sight when in full flow.
Sadly, I’ve come to the conclusion that the general public take little or no notice of the parlous state of our national power supply. I share some of Paul’s posts on my Facebook where they rarely attract comment or even a ‘like’. I guess that until there are cuts during Eastenders we face an uphill battle to spread the word. Thanks Paul for your unstinting efforts.
Agreed Roy. The Brits and Germans will perform valuable service to the rest of the world by freezing, jobless in the dark Both nations will become object lessons in gross stupidity and corruption. Domestically, freezing in he dark will become a sublime teaching moment. But levity aside, people will die. But that’s the point isn’t it for the Green Malthusians?
The Germans will be fine as they are bringing more coal power online at a great rate of knots. We stand to be the main example of this stupidity whilst the US warming itself with shale gas.
The iIncumbent government will get the blame if we move to blackout Britain
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/04/the-empire-strikes-out/
Don’t forget the alternative
As I’ve pointed out before, the person in charge of “Security of Supply” at DECC is a history graduate whose civil service career encompasses the DWP and the Green Deal. We are in safe hands – DECC keeps assuring us. I don’t know what all the fuss is about; that is why my oil tank is full, my log store is full and my generator is on standby.
Well, what with the ice-cold darkness about to descend on the UK, I can confirm that I have purchased a 2.8kW Inverter/Generator from Amazon; so my future is now bright! I’m so glad that I’m paying for renewables, as well.Thank you Mr Davey, Et al.
So the “burn down the house to save the village” plan is coming to fruition in the UK. My sympathies are with you and hopefully we in the US will learn from your indiscretion.
Oops…..that should be “burn down the village to save the house”…..
Paul, do you have an official link to that paper?
That’s the unofficial one;-) Do we have one for the author where it was original published? I am writing a paper that has to avoid linking to skeptic blogs but still make the skeptic point.
Click on the bottom link – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/151117091138-thegreatgreenhangover.pdf
Should bring up his PDF
All of his figures can be crosschecked against DECC stats:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section-5-energy-trends
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-trends-section-6-renewables
Thanks Paul.