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Brazil’s Temperature Trends & UHI

November 22, 2015
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 

 

nmaps

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=6&type=anoms&mean_gen=0112&year1=2014&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob

 

According to GISS, most of Brazil was a degree or more warmer last year than the 1951-80 average.

GHCN have 33 stations currently operating in the country, most of which are heavily urbanised or airport sites like Brasilia. Such sites clearly cannot be relied upon to give reliable temperature trends.

 

station

 

There are however 7 sites, which GISS classify as rural, based on satellite observed nightlights. In theory, GISS adjust temperatures at the urban sites for UHI, so as to align trends with the rural ones.

 

Sounds fine in theory? Well, let’s take a look at these rural sites.

 

 

Sao Gabriel

 

station

 

At first sight, this one seems to confirm the trend in Brasilia. However, we learn from the GHCN station list that Sao Gabriel is also an airport location, with the sensor next to an asphalt runway. (This is a particular problem with locations like this – as the airports don’t work at night, there is no brightness for the satellite to spot, and therefore are counted as rural. Indeed, much the same applies to many small towns in out of the way places, which may be quite populous, have roads etc, but not much lighting at night). 

While it is not a busy airport, the location clearly has an warming effect. The station metadata does not state how long the airport has been there, or how long the asphalt has been down.

As such, the temperature record at Sao Gabriel is worthless.  

 

image

 

To cap it all, GHCN has decided to adjust temperatures up by about half a degree since recordings resumed a few years ago!

 

30382106000

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/products/stnplots/3/30382106000.gif

 

 

 

Benjamin Constant

 

station

 

A very incomplete record until the last decade, during which temperatures have been declining. There is no assurance at all that the few temperature measurements taken in the 1970’s can safely be compared with current ones, in terms of quality, location etc.

Also, according to Wikipedia, Benjamin Constant has a population of 26000.

 

Coari

 

station

 

According to Wikipedia, Coari (Choary) is a Brazilian municipality in the Amazon region. It is also one of the largest cities of the Amazonas state. It is the seat of the Roman Catholic Diocese of Coari. The area has reserves of oil and natural gas, and has a population of 82000.

 

https://i1.wp.com/legislador.aleam.gov.br/Municipios/images/quadro_coari.jpg

 

 

 

Barra do Corda

 

station

 

Again, despite its classification as rural, Barra do Corda has a population of 86000.

 

 http://cardeckma-ferreira.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/barra-do-corda-ma.html

 

Quixeramobim

 

station

 

You’ve guessed it! According to Wikipedia, it has a population of 75000.

 

http://www.turismonaweb.com.br/aniversario-do-dia/Quixeramobim%28CE%29.htm

 

 

Cruzeiro do Sul

station

 

Population of 79000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cruzeiro_do_Sul,_Acre

 

http://princesinhadojurua.blogspot.co.uk/2011/03/blog-post.html

 

 

 

Carolina

 

station

 

This one only has a population of 23000. The temperature recording station is bang in the middle of a built up area.

 

 

image

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/homr/#ncdcstnid=30059804&tab=LOCATIONS

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY

And that’s it! Not one station that could remotely be called a rural one. Moreover, in every case the amount of urban development that must have taken place in the last 50 years or so will have added significantly to any urban heat island effect.

To make matters worse, non rural sites are homogenised against these faux rural sites.

It is little wonder that GISS show Brazil as one of the fastest warming places on the planet.

The ugly truth is that we see this same sort of pattern in many, many parts of the world. Proper scientists would not touch any of this data with a bargepole.

12 Comments leave one →
  1. November 22, 2015 2:39 pm

    My first visit to this site and …………. I am beginning to think that maybe, just maybe, I am being misled as to the motives of climate scientists. Are they really motivated by the need for grants and does that lead to temptation to misrepresent data?

    • A C Osborn permalink
      November 22, 2015 4:18 pm

      They are doing so at the behest of their Boss.
      A certain Mr B Obama.

    • roy andrews permalink
      November 22, 2015 4:42 pm

      Having been told from a young age to always listen and assess information before making a judgement i had become very concerned at what seemed to be a very one sided argument being made particularly by the BBC who along with others were denying the public a fair and balanced account. Few it seemed were able to challenge the Alarmist Lobby and get their voice heard. This site is a breath of fresh air (!) and far from being followed by people that care little about the environment (as I’m sure it’s detractors would claim) is populated by well meaning and intelligent individuals……Welcome Peter.

    • Bloke down the pub permalink
      November 23, 2015 11:46 am

      Welcome to the party Peter.

    • Jason Calley permalink
      November 23, 2015 4:31 pm

      Hey Peter! One of the most difficult things for any sceptic to realize that while most scientists are honest, it is not a universal. For those of us who love science and the scientific method, the experience is similar (I suspect) to that of devoutly religious people who find that their priest or minister has embezzled church funds.

      As always, follow the data, examine the evidence, and watch for which scientists refuse to divulge their methods of “adjusting” the data.

  2. John F. Hultquist permalink
    November 22, 2015 4:45 pm

    Hi Paul,

    I used the Lat./Long. on your image of Sao Gabriel Airport with Google Earth.
    Then I used the time function (clock, in tasks) that shows an image from 12/1969.
    The quality is not good but, still, the runway seems to be under construction.
    For the image of 9/2002 the dark of the runway and the bare soil is in sharp contrast.
    Note the service roads on either side of the runway. In 2002 they are “newly bare” while in the current image (12/6/2014 they are nearly hidden by trees, or have been abandoned.

    The data page claims it is for Sao Gabriel D (?) and the coordinates there are for a spot 6+ miles west of the airport in a patch of woods. Rounding location values is never a good idea.

    ~~~~~
    [19° F. in central Washington State at 7 A.M.]

  3. Ian George permalink
    November 22, 2015 9:18 pm

    This is the original version 1 (GISS NASA) for Quixeramobim.
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=303825860000&dt=1&ds=1
    Quite a bit of adjustment compared to your latest version above.

  4. November 22, 2015 10:44 pm

    Another example of this kind of manipulation of the data, http://bit.ly/1STtqcG

  5. Gail Combs permalink
    November 23, 2015 11:53 am

    In tectonically stable Brazil:
    The Quaternary Geological History of the Santa Catarina Southeastern Region (Brazil) 1999

    The first part discusses drilling in several locations and analyzing samples. They mention dating prior to that was guesses. “…. A drilling campaign done in the domain permitted the sampling of material for 14C datings, and the obtained data confirmed some previously assumed ages. The sequence of events, that originated the Holocene deposits, has been also reconstructed through drilling and 14C dating of the collected peat and shell samples…”

    In the body of the text is this:

    THE HOLOCENE DEPOSITIONAL SYSTEM

    ….The paleoshorelines limited by ancient cliffs carved within Pleistocene terraces, presently representing the inner limit of the Holocene terrace, shows that this sea-level reached about 4m above the present one. Several terraces situated in different altitudes, and truncation of past morphological features nowadays observed on Holocene deposits, as well as along present lagoonal margins suggest that small scale sea-level oscillations occurred during the last 5 ky….

    Maximum of the Holocene transgression – This episode was exhaustively studied along most of Brazilian coast (Suguio et al. 1985). The relative sea-level rise during this transgression drowned the downstream courses and lagoonal margins, eroding ancient marine terraces and giving rise to sand spits and barrier islands, which formed new lagoonal systems along the coast. Mollusk shells and wood fragments contained within lagoonal deposits indicated radiocarbon ages between 5 and 7 ky BP (Mendes 1993; Pitoni 1993), suggesting that the barrier islands installation occurred before the Holocene culmination stages (5.1 ky BP)….

    Construction of Holocene wave-built terrace – The sea-level drop following the 5.1 ky BP culmination stage originated the wave-built terrace abutted against the original barrier island, with the consequent shoreline progradation in general as regressive beach ridges. Several truncations of these beach-ridge systems, as well as many levels of marginal lagoonal terraces suggest that the dominantly regressive trend was momentarily interrupted by minor transgressive episodes. The radiocarbon ages of the natural shell beds indicate that between 5 and 3 ky BP the relative sea-level was higher than today, with consequent expansion of the lagoonal areas frequently transformed into bays, and warmer paleotemperatures were favourable for great proliferation of mollusks in the area (Mendes 1993; Pitoni 1993).

    This study shows a sea level highstand ~ 4 meters above the present level about ~5000 years ago with sea level oscillating since then. Not only has the sea levels dropped since the Holocene Optimum the evidence shows that “warmer paleotemperatures were favourable for great proliferation of mollusks in the area”
    Santa Catarina Brazil is at latitude 27.2500°S.

    Global warming? WHAT global warming.

    This is not an isolated case either. Two more studies showing falling sea level in tectonically stable areas. (There are at least ten.)

    Mid to late Holocene sea-level reconstruction of Southeast Vietnam using beachrock and beach-ridge deposits

    ….backshore deposits along the tectonically stable south-eastern Vietnamese coast document Holocene sea level changes…..reconstructed for the last 8000 years….The rates of sea-level rise decreased sharply after the rapid early Holocene rise and stabilized at a rate of 4.5 mm/year between 8.0 and 6.9 ka. Southeast Vietnam beachrocks reveal that the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand slightly above + 1.4 m was reached between 6.7 and 5.0 ka, with a peak value close to + 1.5 m around 6.0 ka….

    Translation the sea level was up to 1.5 meters higher than today in a tectonically stable area ~5000 years ago to 2000 years ago.

    Late Quaternary highstand deposits of the southern Arabian Gulf: a record of sea-level and climate change

    Abstract
    …..It has therefore been necessary to infer the ages of these sediments by a comparison of their stratigraphy and elevation with deposits known from other parts of the world. We regard this approach as valid because the southern Gulf coastline lacks evidence for significant widespread neotectonic uplift,…….
    …..Widespread evidence exists for a Holocene sea level higher than at present in the southern Arabian Gulf, indicating that it peaked at 1–2 m above present level, c. 5.5 ka bp…….

    This study shows a sea level highstand ~1 to 2 meters above the present level about ~5500 years ago.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    The first study, Santa Catarina, is a critical study because it is the one that yanks the WIKI sea level chart below, from a falling sea level to a slowly rising sea level. Santa Catarina is that dark red cross above the pack on the right. Remove it and sea level is actually falling for the last 2,000 years. (The area is tectonically stable and unglaciated so there is no need for the adjustments done to disappear the ~2 meter fall in sea level since the Holocene Optimum 5,000 years ago .)

    This figure shows sea level rise since the end of the last glacial episode based on data from Fleming et al. 1998, Fleming 2000, & Milne et al. 2005. These papers collected data from various reports and adjusted them for subsequent vertical geologic motions, primarily those associated with post-glacial continental and hydroisostatic rebound. — WIKI

    I have yet to find ANY data set that has not been ‘adjusted’ to fit the CAGW meme.

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