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Jeff Masters Hypes The Latest Damp Squib

November 27, 2015

By Paul Homewood 


h/t AC Osborn 




More overhyped nonsense from Jeff Masters.

We have already had the damp squib of Hurricane Patricia, now it’s Sandra’s turn.

Claims that it reached Category 4 strength have not been supported by any physical evidence, and are simply the result of models.

Indeed, as NOAA show below, the claimed wind speeds of 145 mph (125 Kt) were only ever derived from the Best Track Warning Intensity. The actual Dvorak readings only support speeds of just over 100 Kt, or about 120 mph, making Sandra a run of the mill Category 3.




In any event, estimates of windspeeds are notoriously inaccurate, as Chris Landsea has pointed out:


The errors for using the above Dvorak technique in comparison to aircraft measurements taken in the Northwest Pacific average 10 mb with a standard deviation of 9 mb (Martin and Gray 1993). Atlantic tropical cyclone estimates likely have similar errors. Thus an Atlantic hurricane that is given a CI number of 4.5 (winds of 77 kt and pressure of 979 mb) could in reality be anywhere from winds of 60 to 90 kt and pressures of 989 to 969 mb. These would be typical ranges to be expected; errors could be worse.


In other words, Sandra may have only have been Category 2. But, of course, that would not have suited Masters’ fraudulent propaganda needs.

What he does tell us now is that Sandra has already miraculously weakened to Category 2, and will rapidly weaken further to a Tropical Depression even before it reaches the coast.


Hurricane Sandra


But even if every word Masters says us true? Well, so what. Measurements of hurricanes using satellite data and the Dvorak technique have only been around since the 1980’s, so the most we can say is that Sandra was the “blah, blah worst” since then.

Prior to then many hurricanes, no doubt just as bad or worse, moved around the oceans without constantly being monitored. Take, for example, the Category 3 Atlantic storm in 1934, which Masters himself mentions. Where were the satellites then which monitored their every move? Or the hurricane hunter aircraft, which did not even enter service till 1943? I find it hard to imagine a 1934 biplane flying into the middle of it!

  1. November 27, 2015 12:51 pm

    Extreme weather events have been plan B (in response to the Pause) for a while now, they even discussed it openly, how such events were needed to “raise awareness”, some even hoped for a lot of El Nino destruction.

  2. November 27, 2015 1:54 pm

    The satellite imagery for Sandra at its peak were quite impressive. It could easily have reached Category 4, but as you point out, estimating intensity from satellite imagery has a larger uncertainty than aircraft measurements or surface measurements. This has been a very active Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which is typical of El Nino years. Furthermore, the ocean surface temperatures have also been above normal southwest of Mexico. So this should not really be surprising. The Atlantic hurricane season was below normal in activity, which is also typical of El Nino years. Chalk these stats up to El Nino.

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