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The IPCC & Floods

December 8, 2015
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 

 

  

While Julia Slingo would like us all to believe that the Cumbrian floods were caused by global warming, perhaps we should take a look at what the IPCC said in AR5 two years ago:

 

 

 

image

http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

 

 

So either floods are getting worse, getting better, or staying the same! What would we do without climate scientists?

17 Comments leave one →
  1. archimedes permalink
    December 8, 2015 2:34 pm

    Slingo on the news at 6 last night
    “The latest research says
    That under the same weather pattern an extended period of rainfall just as we have seen this weekend is seven times more likely because of the emissions of greenhouse gasses”

    • Tim Crome permalink
      December 8, 2015 4:56 pm

      “seven times” is a very clear statement, one can only guess where it came from! Probably straight out of the hot air.

      • Nigel S permalink
        December 8, 2015 7:44 pm

        Slingo revealed as a Spectre operative obsessed by the organisation’s nemesis.

  2. Password protected permalink
    December 8, 2015 3:28 pm

    Record rainfalls, by definition, didn’t exist before records. Temps and wind records too.
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/record_precip/record_precip_world.html

  3. Anoneumouse permalink
    December 8, 2015 4:29 pm

    You need to send a copy of this Liz Truss MP

  4. Rowland Pantling permalink
    December 8, 2015 5:08 pm

    In all the comments about the latest floods there seems to be no mention of the jet stream which has brought this weather on us. Indeed, suspiciously, it seems to have been geo-engineered into position to coincide with the Paris climate summit. Well, it didn’t take long for the usual suspects to claim that manmade global warming was probably the cause instead.

  5. December 8, 2015 6:53 pm

    So, it hasn’t taken long for the real culprit of much of the flooding in Cumbria to be exposed for all to see, and it’s not as Slingo claimed in numerous media outlets, anthropogenic CO2.

    As with the Somerset flooding the real culprit here is the lack of maintenance of waterways by the Environment Agency. Numerous bridges and gulley’s in Cumbria were apparently either already blocked or were very quickly blocked by trees and large branches causing waterways to burst their banks.

    The situation would have been even worse had it not been for the valiant effort of local farmers and builders with excavators in working through the worst of the conditions to clear some of the blockages at great risk to their own safety. It is to the eternal discredit of the Environment Agency staff that most of them stood by watching, refusing to participate, and even in some cases obstructing the efforts of the local heroes by claiming they were breaching health and safety rules. Some Environment Agency jobs worth’s even attempted to prevent local farmers from shovelling water back into the rivers because there was some sand mixed with the water. It is to the credit of local farmers that they only told the Environment Agency staff to ‘go away and do something useful’, although using much more robust language.

    Local farmers have apparently expressed concern on numerous occasions about the Environment Agency policy of allowing fallen (and in some cases felled) trees to remain on the ground near watercourses on “environmental grounds”. This was an inevitable result of the lunatic policies adopted some years ago by a highly dysfunctional quango which has been infiltrated by the eco-loons. Along with their refusal to dredge waterways it’s clear this was largely a man made disaster, just as was the case in Somerset.

    • December 8, 2015 7:06 pm

      Any links?

      I gather Owen Paterson is following this one closely

      • Anoneumouse permalink
        December 8, 2015 11:18 pm

        The light blue three piece suite and one armed bandit dumped into the leaf filled Parham Beck which flows next to the main electricity substation in Willowholme didn’t help.

        However the sight of Carlisle recycled waste floating down the Eden was a treat.

      • December 9, 2015 9:20 am

        My information came from a local resident but someone told me last night that they had read something similar in their Times newspaper yesterday, so it looks as if one of their reporters, possibly in the area covering the flooding, had heard something similar.

        I have not seen the article so don’t know what was said.

  6. Coeur de Lion permalink
    December 8, 2015 10:35 pm

    Dame Slingo needs to take a hard look at the lies in the Climate Change element of the Met Office website. Accelerating sea level rise,forsooth. Etc

  7. December 8, 2015 10:50 pm

    We may be asking the wrong question.

    Instead of ‘is the weather getting worse?’, how about ‘are climate scientists getting worse?’

    Any weather event that gets any media attention at all is soon claimed as a man-made disaster. On that basis almost anyone can be a climate pundit.

  8. The Old Bloke permalink
    December 9, 2015 12:11 am

    So, was it a record or wasn’t it? The claim is that in Honister, Cumbria, an Environment Agency rain gauge recorded a record in the U.K for an amount of rainfall collected in 24 hours, that being 341mm. Or did it? How many of us know that the Environment Agency use different gauges to that of the Met Office and that the Environment Agency rain gauges do not conform to the “Standard” W.M.O. 5″ collection tube? Well, I did. I also know that at the last review, the E.A. gauges, mainly “tipping bucket” types are known to record spurious data as the method of collection and measuring has given rise to incorrect data. The funnel to collect the rainfall is not the standard 5″ as in the Met Office gauges but can be up to 12″ for the E.A. ones. The E.A. gathering can also be greatly affected by wind and to a lesser degree by temperature. The E.A. know that their gauges cannot be relied upon and as such ‘adjustments’ have to be made.
    I have enclosed some important links for all of the forum members and trust that they are read.
    The first is a photo of the E.A. device at Honister
    http://www.geograph.org.uk/more.php?id=2666377
    The rain gauge is the white “toilet” bowl in the back ground and this picture can be enlarged by clicking on it.

    Next is the problems pertaining to the “tipping bucket” gauges as used by the E.A.
    http://www.emltd.net/pdf/Evaluation%20of%20Tipping%20Bucket%20Rain%20Gauge%20Performance%20and%20Data%20Quality.pdf

    And third is the Met Office requirement as stipulated by the “standard” rain gauge which is commonly used throughout the world and regulated by the W.M.O.

    [An ordinary funnel-type raingauge has been in use for all manual measurements since the earliest days of observing. The design has varied over the years but today the Met Office strongly encourages conformity in order to maximise comparability of readings across the network. The standard design has a rim of diameter 5 in (127 mm) standing 12 in (30 cm) above the ground. Raingauges based on the standard design are adapted to meet specific needs; there is a version having a capacity to hold a large volume of rain which is used in remote sites where readings may only be taken once a month. Exposure of the gauge should be on open ground distant from the effects of sheltering objects. At a few windy sites, established a number of years ago, there may be a surrounding turf wall of diameter 3 m and height 30 cm which shields the gauge from the extreme effects of strong winds. Systematic differences as large as 12% have been noted between an unsheltered gauge and one within a turf wall. It is not the present practice to build turf walls at new station]

    To repeat, the standard Met Office gauge has a collecting neck of just 5″ whereas the E.A. in the photo above has a 12″ bowl leading to a collecting chamber. Is it no wonder that a record was set when the collecting bowl was nearly 3 times the size?

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/0/p/OH_Chapter9.pdf

    • December 9, 2015 11:23 am

      “the white toilet bowl”

      Let’s hope no passing hill walker also had that same thought, otherwise the ‘record’ may relate to something quite different.

  9. December 9, 2015 8:47 pm

    Since 2011 a new satellite system collects data on long-term climate change and short-term weather conditions. Still, the oceans are deep and the images offered by satellites only show the surface layer, to which satellite data contribute at most a fraction, if any useful information about the ocean interior at all. We all must admit that there’s a long way to understand climate: http://oceansgovernclimate.com/the-long-way-to-understand-climate/……

  10. May 29, 2016 10:07 am

    Wish you’d tell that to the local weather here in this part of the Midwest, where we’re having extended Spring rains two years in a row. Not to mention the Christmas flooding last Winter, when areas got close to 8″ of rain in a few days.
    Should’ve been too cold for that much moisture to collect and fall down, but it stayed very warm up till Christmas.
    But what do I know, other than what I see and have seen for the last 60+ years. Winters getting shorter and warmer, allowing the Texas armadillo to migrate this far North and far the southern Kudzu vine to migrate North, covering trees along the way.

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