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Has The UK Had Exceptional Winter Rainfall Or Is It Just Weather As Normal?

December 31, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

image

https://oldgifford.wordpress.com/2014/03/13/has-the-uk-had-exceptional-winter-rainfall-or-is-it-just-weather-as-normal/

 

After the wet winter of 2013/14, Oldgifford posted an analysis of winter rainfall trends, using the sort of proper statistical methods that I missed out on in College (having bunked off lessons!)

 

His conclusion is that, apart from that one winter, nothing unusual has been happening at all. In engineering terms, the system was very much in control.

His main graph is below, but please read his whole post here. It is very short and to the point.

 

 

1767-2014-winter-precip

 

 

I would only add that the rainfall total last winter was 237mm, in other words pretty average.

16 Comments leave one →
  1. December 31, 2015 7:01 pm

    UK floods seem to be less about total UK rainfall and more that the rain picks on a certain area, Somerset a few years ago, now the North West.

  2. Dorian permalink
    December 31, 2015 7:54 pm

    This is a pretty pointless chart, all because the climate was not the same throughout those years, that is from 1766 to present. During the period from 1766 to 1850, we were amongst the late stages of the Little Ice Age, temperatures were lower, thus precipitation is lower, as can be seen in these charts. Now does anybody have precipitation charts during the Medieval Warm Period, where I bet you that the precipitation rates would have been blasting outside those control limits? No, there is no such data. Thus this entire exercise is absolutely pointless, nothing can be determined from this other than that the precipitation rate has gone up and down.

    What a pointless exercise, when you don’t have anything to compare this data to various extreme temperature periods like the opposing LIA and WMP, you have nothing but stupid comments. Lets wait for another 1,000 years of data to come in, then maybe we can say something intelligent, until then, this sort of wild idiotic speculation is shear MORONIC!

    • December 31, 2015 10:54 pm

      I can’t disagree with anything, Dorian

      Unfortunately, we only have data that far back. But even on that basis there is no evidence that anything exceptional is happening.

  3. Dorian permalink
    December 31, 2015 8:06 pm

    One last comment. Doing control analysis of data and looking at control points is a waste of time if you don’t have a “control” to compare against. And for a “control” to be established you need a LONG TERM averaging. As far as the weather is concerned, you can not establish a “control” until you have gone through the entire gamut of possibilities. If you think you can statistically sample your way into understanding what is going on, do the math properly. You will find to establish a proper sample period and establish a proper “control” you need to have data that represents several hundred years, if not more. This is where the problem with all this IDIOTIC modelling comes in. There is not enough data to establish proper models. For every year you want to model into the future, allowing from all the possible variables and variety of climates we have had over the past 1,000 years, you need at least 100 years of data, at least! Thus to do a 20 year climate model prediction, you need some 2,000 years of past data, just to give you something close to a confidence factor of say plus or minus 10 percent!

    For God’s sake wake up people!! Start doing some proper analysis!!!!!!!!

  4. Dorian permalink
    December 31, 2015 8:33 pm

    Another late opinion. Remember all these computer models are not totally theoretical models based upon solid physical principles, say like a computer model of a pendulum using the well known canonical formula of Hooke. These models a pseudo chaotic, and thus when using chaotic principles you really need lots of past data build a proper chaotic thesis. THIS IS NOT HAPPENING! What is happening is akin to mindless dolts taking a cue stick and hitting a snooker ball on a snooker table, and seeing one collision, and then thinking they can calculate the next 1,000,000 collisions, from one collision data point! That is PURE MORONIC IDIOTICY!!!!

    Nobody with a semblance of mathematic and physics ability would assume this nonsense, unless they have a self serving agenda to fraudulently use their VOODOO MUMBO JUMBO, to flimflam their way to grant money, tenure, or fame!

    So forget about all this data, it will not show anything for about another 1,000 years! And start focusing on the criminal aspects of all this VOODOO!

  5. Dorian permalink
    December 31, 2015 8:39 pm

    But there is way to KNOW for sure! To determine whether or not there is a solar or cosmic affect on our weather, an international project should be made to send a ice core drill to the poles of Mars. By doing an ice core study on the Martian pole, we can see if there is a direct correlation with ice trends on Mars as there are on Earth. This would definitely answer MANY questions. And that is worthwhile Science!!! Not the stupidity that NASA is doing now on Mars.

  6. ottokring permalink
    December 31, 2015 10:56 pm

    If one were to look at the UK chart, then there is a definite trend upwards over the last 20 years or so. It is Scotland that is pushing up the average (as it were) , because we can see from this and other graphs that Eng and Wales are indicating no trend.
    So the questions are
    1) Why Scotland ?
    2) Does it matter ?

  7. December 31, 2015 11:01 pm

    Thanks, Paul.
    “Control” was the name of a study subject during a year of the Electronics Engineering curriculum. We had to design and build electronic controls for electric motors driving varying loads. ‘Nothing much out of the ordinary happening’ did not make the news in the lab, but it secured a passing grade.
    If someone tries to convince me there is a reason for climate alarm, I just ask to see the reputable data set on which it is based. That generally is the end of the exchange.

  8. Ex-expat Colin permalink
    January 1, 2016 9:33 am

    Loch Lomand National Park

    Auchtubh is a hamlet in the Stirling council area of Scotland, less than a mile to the east of the village of Balquhidder.

    At Auchtubh there is a floodplain which when flooded after heavy rain, is known as “Loch Occasional”

    A term coined by the locals…wonder when someone gets to build there?

  9. David Richardson permalink
    January 1, 2016 10:36 am

    Dorian – I don’t think anyone on here would give you an argument with what you say, and in their saner writings the IPCC admits that forecasting a chaotic non-linear climate system is not possible anyway.

    BUT

    When you are dealing with climate science that will present data on minute time-scales and present this as proof positive of their utterances, you have to deal with what you have got. Paul says this in essence above.

    It is like countering Pacifism – how can you argue with a pacifist? What a wonderful world we might have if everyone was a pacifist. But they are not. The pacifist effectively refuses to engage with the violent world because they know better. People like me would rather die on their feet, otherwise the bad guys win. I see this the same way. We could simply agree between us that you can’t model this stuff and we don’t have the data and refuse to engage with the propaganda OR try, at least, to counter some of it.

    Everyday I see politicians, environmentalists and just ordinary citizens make statements about the state of our climate that are not true – we need folks who will point this out.

    If we had the data for a 1000 years there would be no argument – although it might have been homogenised by now, that is the nature of the beast.

    Happy New Year to you and yours Paul – and to all your many followers.

  10. January 1, 2016 10:37 am

    Thanks for the comments. The intention was to check Dame Julia’s assumption that our RECENT weather was exceptional, so control charts seemed a reasonable thing to do. I guess the question is how do you characterise exceptional weather? Unfortunately we don’t have a lot of good data to go on, I also analysed the drift of the magnetic poles vs. global temperatures after reading a lot of opinions that when the Earth’s poles flipped, we would all be doomed. Again the problem is long term data. Reasonably accurate data is only available from around 1900 but the correlation is remarkable suggesting that it is not just chance. I had my data analysed by Dr. Simon Bray who ran the Spearman Pearson Product Moment test on my correlations. Archaeologists have noted climate correlation with the direction of the magnetic field when studying pottery, which preserves the field direction when it is fired.

    You can see the results on my website as a peer reviewed paper.

    And I know correlation doesn’t prove cause and effect and I don’t claim that, I note the remarkable correlation and ask if there is a connection.

    What is also interesting is the deviation between some of the CRU data and individual station

  11. January 1, 2016 10:45 am

    Dorian, one of the interesting facts is that WeatherAction can forecast our weather many months ahead with good accuracy using their astrophysics techniques. This is from their website showing their prediction in November.

    Former Front Page ARTICLES RE Major R5 19-21NOV:
    Mon 23 Nov
    Extra snow, stronger winds and lower temperatures in stronger Arctic blasts than standard short range (1d/2d ahead) forecasts observed in UK, Eire, Europe and USA.
    “This Top Level (R5) solar-weather effect (‘Red Weather’) period 19-21Nov+/-1d, has been a great success”, says Pers Corbyn, “The weather we predicted in detail 5weeks ahead (UK, Eire and Europe) / 3weeks ahead (USA) came as stated in regions stated and on time stated. Furthermore as we warned standard meteorology – which only clearly saw this weather coming about 4 or 5 days ahead – notably underestimated the strengths of the arctic blasts even one or two days ahead.
    “Standard forecasters and model programmers need to explain why there are certain times, which only WeatherAction can predict, when weather all-over the world goes simulaneously wild and WeatherAction can announce in advance how the extreme weather will develop compared with their models and warn of simultaneous increased solar and geomagnetic and auroral activity. “

  12. Jaime Jessop permalink
    January 1, 2016 10:59 am

    You don’t even need to be a qualified statistician to see that, from around 1876 to present, there has been no upward trend in overall annual precipitation in England and Wales:

    Similarly, it’s pretty obvious that there has been no overall trend in winter precipitation in England and Wales since around 1910.

    Regions may set records for rainfall (or lack of) as time goes by, but if we’re talking climate, we would expect to see a clear trend in the country as a whole. There is a clear upward trend in annual precipitation in Scotland since the early 70’s, but unfortunately the Met Office’s data for that region only appears to go back to 1910:

  13. Alan N permalink
    January 1, 2016 11:24 am

    Dame Julia Slingo’s remark, to which Oldgifford took exception, was about “more intense hourly and daily rain events” as a consequence of a warmer world.

    Oldgifford’s graph was illustrating something different – total winter precipitation.

  14. Ben Vorlich permalink
    January 1, 2016 2:13 pm

    Alan N
    Does anyone have any meaningful data on

    “more intense hourly and daily rain events”

    From Dame Julia downwards? I would suggest not particularly for hourly events, perhaps someone reading this does?

  15. January 5, 2016 11:43 am

    It looks like the December rainfall for England and Wales was nothing special, ranked 6th since 1910 at 167.6mm compared to the highest, 191mm in 1914.
    Of course England N and NW and Wales come out on top but can you attribute the essentially random distribution of rainfall over small area of a small country to “climate change”?

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