Skip to content

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Remains Stable For Another Year

January 1, 2016
tags:

By Paul Homewood   

 

image

https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/01/01/happy-arctic-ice-year/

 

Ron Clutz has the Arctic sea ice extent averages for the year:

 

This year end report shows there is no reason to worry about Arctic ice melting. Against the odds, 2015 recovered from:
The blob melted Bering Sea a month early; it’s now well ahead of 2014.
An August storm pushed extent down for 28 days; it now nearly matches 2014.

 

masie day 2015365r

 

MASIE measurements show that 2007 ice extent was lower than any year since. It is now confirmed that 2015 average annual extent exceeds 2007 by about 400,000 km2. That difference arises from comparing 2007 annual average of 10.414 M km2 with 2015 average through day 365 of 10.808. That makes 2015 virtually tied with 2009 for fourth place in the last ten years.

 

Summary:

Arctic ice declined in the decade prior to 2007, but has not declined since.

Alarmists chafe at the words “growing” and “recovery”, and I use them poetically to counter “death spiral” terminology. What we have seen in the last decade is a plateau in Arctic ice extent, analogous to the plateau in surface temperatures. The rise since 2007 is slight and not statistically important, just as the loss of ice from 1979 to 1994 in the NOAA dataset was too slight to count as a decline.

 

Read the rest here.

14 Comments leave one →
  1. January 1, 2016 5:17 pm

    It seems like Arctic ice has staying power, I hope it doesn’t start to come back.

    • AndyG55 permalink
      January 1, 2016 7:31 pm

      Sorry Andres, but that is what it is going to start to do.

      Here I take the NH ice extent from the Arctic ice graphs page https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

      flip it and superimpose over the AMO.

      You can see that the match is pretty good.

      But note that 2007 is about where the AMO starts to level off.

      The AMO is now starting to drop. NH sea ice will start to expand over the next several years..

  2. Graeme No.3 permalink
    January 1, 2016 9:12 pm

    AndyG55:
    Any chance of a guess at arctic ice conditions around 1810-1830?
    We know from Sir Joseph Bank’s letter to the Admiralty in 1817 that there had been on-going loss of ice for some years. Sir Joseph was writing in his capacity of President of the Royal Society and suggested looking for the NW passage. The Admiralty took that up until the mid 1840’s, then gave up.

    The moral is don’t believe what you hear from the RS about arctic ice.

    • AndyG55 permalink
      January 2, 2016 1:23 am

      I wish we had more data… but we don’t.

      We have the AMO cycle, plus the rise (thankfully) from the LIA to take into consideration.

      I would suspect it was probably higher than the cold period around 1979.

      But biomarkers and other things show that during the first 3/4 of the Holocene, an ice free Arctic was an often occurrence.

      Arctic sea ice is still anomalously HIGH compared to most of the last 10,000 years of this current interglacial.

  3. John F. Hultquist permalink
    January 2, 2016 1:56 am

    Have a look at this university prepared exercise for schools. In 2011 the linear model shows the summer ice will be gone by 2078. I’m not going to check it out, but I wonder what the last 4 years of the real world have done to their neat exercise. And will they update it? Or just let it hang out there.
    https://osep.northwestern.edu/sites/default/files/Arctic%20Ice%20Data_ALL.pdf

    • spetzer86 permalink
      January 2, 2016 3:15 am

      The funny thing is the education exercise doesn’t reflect on the advisability of using a linear regression model to predict oscillating functions. You’d think they’d throw that in for something that believed to cycle. The whole thing is basically “proving” global warming and ice decline. No real mention of earlier findings of arctic “collapse” from previous centuries.

      The original pdf had a regression equation of Y= -0.08X + 166.22
      With data up to 2014, you get a linear regression of Y= -0.088X + 181.24. So the intercept is out another 15 years.

      • January 2, 2016 2:26 pm

        I am so glad that I learned about the glacial/interglacial cycles starting in Junior High before all science was just Marxist political propaganda. Truth is a precious commodity/

    • AndyG55 permalink
      January 2, 2016 6:39 am

      If the students are paying any attention over the next few years, they will learn the utter stupidity of using anything but short term internal trends on chaotic oscillations.

      And the even great stupidity of extrapolating linear trends on a system that most certainly IS NOT linear.

    • January 4, 2016 7:53 pm

      the stat exercise has the anomaly plot, on page 3, till Sept 2010 with a slope of -11.5 (+/-2.9)% per decade and a 1979-2000 mean of 7.0M sq km. The same plot with data till Dec 2015 (http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png) now has a slope of -3.4 (+/- 0.5)% per decade, and a 1981-2010 mean of 13.1M sq km… something is indeed changing albeit in the opposite direction as predicted🙂

  4. David Richardson permalink
    January 2, 2016 8:58 am

    It will all be gone in 10 years – again. /Sarc off.

  5. Graeme No.3 permalink
    January 2, 2016 10:46 am

    David R:
    It has already gone, in 2000.
    See http://climatechangepredictions.org/

    Especially the Arctic Ice one (do note the dates)
    http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/5614

  6. January 2, 2016 5:40 pm

    Arctic sea ice is stable but the same can’t be said of ‘Arctic death spiral’ prophets of doom.

  7. January 2, 2016 10:21 pm

    Reblogged this on Climatism.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: