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Central England Temperature Pause Now 17 Years Long

January 2, 2016

By Paul Homewood 

   

HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html

 

Despite the warm end to the year, the annual CET ended up pretty close to the long term average.

 

As I have pointed out before, the Met Office only like to show the CET since 1772. For some reason, they don’t like people to see the full picture, which just happens to include the much bigger and faster rise in temperatures in the early 18thC!

 

 

image

 

If we focus in on the period since 1980, we can see more clearly the step change in the late 1980’s, but, just as significantly, the flatlining since. Indeed, the 10-Year average has actually been declining since 2007.

 

 

image

 

Perhaps a better way to look at the “pause” is to consider the trend over the last twenty years. The red line shows the mean.

Last year was an insignificant 0.1C above the 20-year mean, whilst five of the years in the last eight have been below average.

 

 image

 

 

Which brings us back back to that step change in the 1980’s. Whilst correlation does not prove causation, one cannot avoid the connection between that step change in temperature and the sharp rise in the AMO at the same time.

 

tsgcos.corr.81.159.104.6.1.12.28.22

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=&year2=2015&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

 

 

I won’t even mention the peak in the AMO in the 1930’s and 40’s! But just consider what might happen to UK temperatures when the AMO goes cold, which on historical patterns will occur sometime in the next decade.

 

 

 

Source

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html

18 Comments leave one →
  1. AndyG55 permalink
    January 3, 2016 2:23 am

    Maybe correlation doesn’t show causation

    But here is Reykjavik temps vs AMO

    And the NH sea ice values flipped vs the AMO

    And swiss glacier advance/retreat vs AMO

  2. John F. Hultquist permalink
    January 3, 2016 5:28 am

    There was a step-change in the Pacific Ocean over the years 1976-77. Note your last graph has the AMO quite low when this happened. It has been written about but I don’t have time tonight to search for a connection, so just a couple of links.
    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2008/10/26/the-1976-pacific-climate-shift/
    and
    http://horizon.ucsd.edu/miller/download/climateshift/climate_shift.pdf

  3. January 3, 2016 10:10 am

    The big question I have is why doesn’t CET suffer from the all prevailing urban heating effect?

  4. Graeme No.3 permalink
    January 3, 2016 10:10 am

    Reluctant as I am to defend the Met Office, somewhere about 1772 was when the CET started measuring temperatures in a modern manner. Sorry, can’t find the link, but before then it was a mixture of proxies and ‘dodgy’ temperatures (without tree rings or a hockey stick).
    Founded on the calibration of thermometers onto the one made by Mr. Hooke, there was a dearth of reliable figures from around 1700 for roughly thirty years which was filled in by Dutch readings. Following that the procedure involved reading the temperature indoors in an unheated room. It was only later that the use of outdoor temperatures became standard, so the MetOffice has some justification. It is only the “official” modern temperatures that are doubtful.

    • January 3, 2016 10:12 am

      However the severe cold of the 1690s is well documented in Scotland with near permanent ice on the Cairngorms and famine leading to the deaths of up to a quarter of Scots. (If you can afford the £60 price tag see the book the ill years).

  5. January 3, 2016 11:16 am

    Correlation with carbon dioxide levels is busted after 17 years of no noticeable temp increase.

  6. xmetman permalink
    January 3, 2016 12:39 pm

    Paul

    I too can see the pause that you refer and I agree. But have a look at the last 3 years, or the last 30 years of the CET series and you will find significant warming.

    Here are my charts to illustrate my point:

    https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2016/01/03/the-pause-in-central-england-temperatures/

    Bruce.

    • January 3, 2016 5:33 pm

      The last 30 years is of course the key. There was a definite step change in the late 1980’s, which has never, to my knowledge, been properly explored.

      Since then, not much has changed.

  7. The Old Bloke permalink
    January 3, 2016 7:13 pm

    Paul, please read the enclosed in particular sections 4 and 5. The step change could well be accounted for in these sections of the paper.
    http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/ukmo-midas/ukmo_guide.html

  8. Dorian permalink
    January 4, 2016 5:09 pm

    What would be nice to see, is a comparison of the temperature with rainfall on the same graph. Especially going back to the 18th century. In fact, every weather/climate variable should be compared against temperature. As I noted on an earlier post, during the LIA their was less precipitation. But there is still NOT enough evidence to suggest any correlation between temperature and precipitation. Thus on chart with precipitation and temperature by year, and a running correlation (tau test? hmm maybe, but i have issues with that), would be nice to see. But as I said too, the sample size (even though it is some 200 years) is still not enough, but at least we get to see something other than meaningless charts that speak very little of any trends, that is why we need to do relative trend analysis, this is a higher order and more sensitive test, and thus more meaningful.

    • January 4, 2016 6:20 pm

      One of the problems of correlating temperatures and rain is that they are both affected by the same external factors.

      So, for instance, air flow from the SW in winter results in both mild and wet weather.

  9. See - owe to Rich permalink
    January 4, 2016 10:59 pm

    (Tried to post on December CET). Grimwig – since November 2014 I have been following CET by recording Met Office values for Pershore, Rothamsted, and Rostherne. They don’t publish Stonyhurst, so I use Rostherne as a proxy. I assume that as they are supplied hourly they are raw figures.

    Anyway, some months I my estimate is a little high compared with the final publication, and some others it is a little low, but I’m usually not far off. That suggests to me they don’t subtract much for UHI, despite claims that they do, and one day I intend to tax them over this. But I might contact Paul here first.

    Paul – if you want more information then please email me.

    Rich.

    • January 5, 2016 11:32 am

      Tim Legg at the Met Office tells me that they allow 0.2C for UHI prior to 1970 only.

      In other words, they increase temperatures prior to 1970 by 0.2C, but leave present ones unchanged

      • January 5, 2016 1:56 pm

        How does this relate to the cooling of the past by NOAA?
        Are the reported data before 1970 adjusted by 0.2 deg K?

        Does this reduce the warming trend at 1970?

  10. xmetman permalink
    January 7, 2016 11:18 am

    Paul

    I don’t have your email address, so the only way I can communicate is by commenting,
    which is probably the way you would like to keep it.

    I noticed that you don’t seem to have done an ‘expose’ on the three sites that make up the CET, so you might like this post:

    https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2016/01/07/the-quest-to-find-central-england/

    Bruce.

  11. xmetman permalink
    January 7, 2016 2:21 pm

    Paul

    Finally, I’ve managed to post a table of HadUKP regionally ranked wettest Decembers (1931-2015) that I was busy doing yesterday when you posted about the 1766 series and I got side tracked.

    I think you might like it:

    https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2016/01/07/rainfall-gauges-were-invented-before-1910/

    Bruce.

Trackbacks

  1. Central England Temperature Pause Now 17 Years Long | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
  2. Central England Temperature Pause Now 17 Years Long | Atlas Monitor

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