Is The El Nino On The Wane?
By Paul Homewood
David Whitehouse brings up to date analysis of the current El NIno, suggesting that it is beginning to wane..
There are various signs, including SST’s, upper ocean heat content and winds, but the most telling comment is:
Sea surface temperature across the equatorial Pacific basin have cooled roughly one-half a degree over the last four weeks. At the same time, a large pool of cold water beneath the surface in the western Pacific has been expanding eastward, nearly doubling in size over the past two months.
ESRL’s MEI Index also confirms this, dropping from 2.308 in November to 2.123 last month. This is the lowest value since last July.
It could come back for seconds in the next month or so, as it did in 1998, but the consensus is against this.
My guess is that the 2015 El Nino is the last hurrah, given the cold phase of the PDO, which has been temporarily interrupted by the El Nino and N Pacific “Blob”.
If that is right, we are not only in for a cold La Nina later next year, but the cold phase of the PDO will return with a vengeance, as it did in the 1960’s and 70’s.
The reality is that El Ninos, by their nature, take heat from the oceans and put it into the atmosphere, where eventually it disappears to space.
How much heat is there left in the Pacific to transfer to the atmosphere? With the Atlantic starting to go cold, serious scientists would not be worried by global warming.