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UK Winters Not Getting Warmer Or Wetter – Will Someone Tell Comrade Harrabin?

January 6, 2016
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood   




Another dishonest piece from Comrade Harrabin:


The Met Office says there is a direct link between the warmth and the record rains that brought widespread floods across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England.


In fact the Met Office has said no such thing, as even Julia Slingo admitted here. What they have said is that :

The UK was in a warm and moist tropical air mass for most of the month, bringing unseasonably mild conditions to England and Wales, although Scotland and Northern Ireland were colder at times.

In other words, the record rains have not been caused by warm weather, as Harrabin would like his readers to believe. Instead, the jet stream has brought air which is both warm and moist.

He then goes on to claim that December was the wettest on record, which, as we now know, is not true.


But it is the nonsense that he quotes from Adam Scaife and Myles Allen which is particularly interesting:


Prof Adam Scaife, head of medium-term prediction at the Met Office, said: "The mild, wet weather is coming to an end – not this week but in a while.

"This December has really been out of the ordinary. We think climate change has played a part in the extreme temperature and rainfall – but only a minor one.

"It’s not feasible for climate change to have increased temperatures as high as they have been – the jet stream has been the main driver of conditions, bringing winter storms.

"Warmer air can hold more moisture, and we expect winters to become warmer and wetter with climate change – especially in the North. But we wouldn’t expect the sort of weather we’ve had in December to become normal in the UK for many decades."

Prof Myles Allen, from Oxford’s department of atmospheric physics, said: "There is no such thing as a new normal with climate change.

"Climate change is not a transition to a new normal. It’s a trend. Decembers like this will be what we expect in a couple of decades’ time."



Unfortunately for their theories, there is no evidence that UK winters are getting wetter.




Or, for that matter, warmer.





Perhaps, for his next little piece, Harrabin might like to check the figures himself, and then ask Messrs Scaife and Allen where their theories have gone wrong!

  1. January 6, 2016 6:54 pm

    Why don’t you tell him, I think he responds to this email address:

  2. Joe Public permalink
    January 6, 2016 7:08 pm

    Yet less than 3 years ago – the story was:

    “Climate Change ‘Causing Colder British Winters’ Says Met Office Chief Scientist”

    • David Richardson permalink
      January 6, 2016 7:36 pm

      That is true Joe but that was before the rain started and while farmers were still building reservoirs to manage the little water they would be getting in the future..

  3. January 6, 2016 7:36 pm

    Comrade Wod-Jah is not alone in pushing the idea…

    Sir Philip Dilley EA chair was repeating at The HoC today 16:25 onwards

  4. January 6, 2016 7:45 pm

    Thanks, Paul,
    Your link to needs a / at the end.

  5. Joe Public permalink
    January 6, 2016 8:34 pm

    From Paul’s posting & source on 15th Sept 2015:

    Winter is coming, and it could be colder and snowier than normal after forecasters predicted that this year’s El Nino weather phenomenon could be the strongest since 1950.

    Met Office meteorologists said conditions could mirror those of the 2009/2010 winter which was so long and chilly it was dubbed ‘The Big Freeze.’

    That winter, heavy snowfall brought transport chaos to much of the country with airports closed and train services suspended. In parts of Scotland temperatures dropped to -8.1F (-22.3C) as record 19 inch snowfall fell in the highlands. In December that year, the average UK temperature was just 30F (-1C) the coldest since records began.

    This year’s El Nino looks set to be more powerful than usual with forecasters predicting the strongest since 1950. In that year Britain suffered one of its snowiest winters ever. Snow lay for 102 days in the Highlands while 15 inches fell on the Isle of Wight in just three and half hours. Bournemouth saw 10 inches, Scarborough and Lowestoft, 14 inches.

    The weather phenomenon happens when ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, near South America, rise due to a change in the normal wind direction, creating knock-on effects across the globe due to the amount of heat released into the atmosphere. The polar jet stream tends to move further south, and brings wetter weather across the Atlantic, which causes heavy rainfall in warmer months, but can bring snow in the winter.

    Met Office meteorologist and BBC forecaster Thomas Shafernaker said: “This time round it could be the strongest in decades.
    “In Europe sometimes winters end up much colder and drier and last much into spring. In 2010 the El Nino played a part in bringing huge amounts of snow to the UK.”

    [My bold]

  6. tom0mason permalink
    January 7, 2016 7:50 am

    Comrade Harrabin cognitive decline continues unabated…

  7. January 7, 2016 1:47 pm

    “Warmer air can hold more moisture, and we expect winters to become warmer and wetter with climate change…” So true, but define “wetter.” When temperatures are in the zero F and below range there is little snowfall as the air is dry and does not hold much moisture. The greatest snowfalls occur when the temperatures are in the teens to 32 F range. My question is, “how are those persistent snowbanks reported in Scotland doing?” The “lake-effect” snows come off the Great Lakes when cold air sweeping across picks up moisture from the relatively warm bodies of water and make huge dumps in IL, OH, PA and NY. Oswego, NY at the end of Lake Erie had 12 feet 2inches of snow between Feb. 3 and Feb. 13, 2007. Oswego is possibly the grand champion recipient of these snows and is famous for them.

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