How Does El Nino Affect UK Weather?
By Paul Homewood
There has been a lot of talk about the effect that El Nino is having on UK weather.
The general view seems to be that it has at the very least spiced up the wet and stormy weather in the last month, but that it would also lead to a much colder spell towards the end of the winter.
This is what the Met Office’s 3-month outlook currently says:
However, if we go back to the 1997/8 El Nino, we find no such thing:
First, December 1997: both temperatures and rainfall were pretty much normal.
And January 1998? Again, nothing out of the ordinary at all.
When we get to February 1998, we find that, rather than being cold, it is actually the warmest month on record since 1910, with rainfall pretty average.
Our understanding of the effects of El Nino is so poor, and experience of major events so limited, that we in reality have very little idea what the effect on UK weather will be. But the experience of 1997/8 certainly suggests that it is certainly not as straightforward as pretended.