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How the Cold Blob In The Atlantic Is Affecting UK Weather

February 4, 2016
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 

 

sst_anom

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur

 

As I have repeatedly emphasised, the root cause of the wet and windy weather experienced this winter in the UK has been the position and strength of the jet stream. For most of the time, it has been sat further south than we have been used to seeing it, and consequently successive depressions have hit Britain, almost as if they were on a conveyor belt.

Below is the forecast jet stream for Saturday, when the next lot of heavy rain is due to hit.

 

hgt300

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

 

According to Intellicast:

  Jet streams are fast flowing, relatively narrow air currents found in the atmosphere around 10 kilometers above the surface of the Earth. They form at the boundaries of adjacent air masses with significant differences in temperature, such as the polar region and the warmer air to the south.

 

The About Education Geography website offers some more clarification:

Jet streams are also stronger in the winter because there is a large contrast between colliding Arctic and tropical air masses. In the summer, the temperature difference is less extreme between the air masses and the jet stream is weaker.

And, of course, it is this large temperature contrast that make winter storms so much more common and stronger than at other times of year. 

 

Under global warming theory, temperature differentials between polar and tropical air should decrease, as the Arctic warms faster. And, indeed, the above website refers to “today, movement of the jet stream north has been detected indicating possible changes in climate.”. Certainly HH Lamb recognised the opposite occurring in the 1970’s, when the world was cooling down.

So why is the jet stream further south this winter? (This was also true in the wet winter of 2013/14 and summer of 2012). Part of the answer lies in sea temperatures.

As the Unisys map of SST anomalies at the top shows, there is a vast blob of much colder than usual water in the N Atlantic, extending down to around 40N. Further south, SST’s are a bit above average. And it is along this boundary of cold and warm air that the jet stream is flowing.

One of the problems with the Unisys set up is that they don’t state what baseline their anomalies are based on. Therefore it is difficult to say whether the north is unusually cold, or the south unusually warm.

However, we check out SSTs from the KNMI Explorer website. Below are the SST anomalies for 60N to 40N, and 40N to 20N:

 

isstoi_v2_-60--20E_60-40N_n_19912010a

isstoi_v2_-60--20E_40-20N_n_19912010a

http://climexp.knmi.nl/select.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&field=sstoi_v2

 

What we find is that the southerly 40 to 20N zone is about 0.2C warmer than the average, but significantly has changed little since the late 1990s. (Graphs are based on data up to Dec 2015).

But the 60 to 40N has been running at 0.5C colder, and sometimes more, for the last year or so. It is also important to note that temperatures are back down to mid 1990 levels, and the downward trend is clear.   

These are early signs that the AMO may be on the turn.

 

All of this is pretty basic meteorology, but how many times have we heard any of this from the Met Office? The only thing they seem interested in is playing around with models in the hope that they can blame every bit of bad weather to CO2.

I note that the Australian government is planning to defund climate science at CSIRO, on the sensible basis that “science is settled”. Perhaps it is time we did the same with the Met Office, and directed them to return to what they were set up to do. (Clue is in the name!)

12 Comments leave one →
  1. February 4, 2016 9:50 pm

    This may be of interest in relation to the jet streams:

    http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/

  2. tom0mason permalink
    February 4, 2016 10:22 pm

    The main problem is that people are often led to the erroneous belief that changes in the climate can be based on simple causation principles. e.g. ‘This climate parameter change has caused, or is correlated with, that event.’
    This is wrong!
    No one parameter appears to dictates the general flow weather change, though the changes to ocean currents and temperature appears to be a major factor. Our climate, however appears to change depending on more subtle signals that are probably from outside this planet’s domain.
    The natural movement of atmospheric gases and vapors, and the oceans and seas are (as far as is known) defined within the field of fluid mechanics. Therefore all the various parameter changes that have happened and that are currently happening affect the current weather, and to some degree the general direction of climate change.

    Modern Fluid Mechanics is based on the Navier Stokes equations formulated nearly 200 years ago. These are non-linear, tightly-coupled second order partial differential equations forming a deterministic system to which analytical solutions exist in only a few special idealised cases – not in the real world.
    The field of Chaos Theory has shown that all physical systems previously thought to be deterministic in fact have unpredictability built into their very nature due to the unavoidable non-linearity they contain. The mathematical models of classical mechanics are idealised approximations. In reality, absolute prediction of the outcome is not possible – only the probability of an outcome.
    This article gives a brief overview of some of Chaos Theory and how we see it applies to both Fluid Mechanics and Computational Fluid Mechanics, with a view to how these disciplines could be re-thought to facilitate technical advance in aerospace and related fields. from — Observations on The Application of Chaos Theory to Fluid Mechanics available from Meridian International Research, Aviation House,Wellesbourne Airport,Wellesbourne. Warwick. UK

    Even those ‘climate scientists’ with some appreciation of this matter fail to fully understand the implication of the chaotically deterministic aspects of both our climate’s and weather’s, fluid motion.
    In other words an observed set of weather parameters may imply some easily predictable future situation but often such a prediction fails as all the governing parametric variations are not fully observed, and/or the couplings, interactions, and feedbacks are not properly understood.

    Finally a question for the any ‘climate scientist’, or anyone who believes they know —
    “What are all the governing parameters of our climate.”

    • tom0mason permalink
      February 4, 2016 10:31 pm

      Please ignore above — having fought against the dyslexic aspects, the formatting and punctuation failed. So here is a second try!

      –¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯–
      The main problem is that people are often led to the erroneous belief that the climate changes can be based on simple causation principles. e.g. ‘This climate parameter change has caused, or is correlated with, this or that event.’
      This is wrong!
      No one parameter appears to dictates the general flow weather change, though the changes to ocean currents and temperature appears to be a major factor. Our climate, however appears to change depending on more subtle signals that are probably from outside this planet’s domain.
      The natural movement of atmospheric gases and vapors, and the oceans and seas are (as far as is known) defined within the field of fluid mechanics. Therefore all the various parameter changes that have happened and that are currently happening affect the current weather, and to some degree the general direction of climate change.

      Modern Fluid Mechanics is based on the Navier Stokes equations formulated nearly 200 years ago. These are non-linear, tightly-coupled second order partial differential equations forming a deterministic system to which analytical solutions exist in only a few special idealised cases – not in the real world.
      The field of Chaos Theory has shown that all physical systems previously thought to be deterministic in fact have unpredictability built into their very nature due to the unavoidable non-linearity they contain. The mathematical models of classical mechanics are idealised approximations. In reality, absolute prediction of the outcome is not possible – only the probability of an outcome.
      This article gives a brief overview of some of Chaos Theory and how we see it applies to both Fluid Mechanics and Computational Fluid Mechanics, with a view to how these disciplines could be re-thought to facilitate technical advance in aerospace and related fields.

      Observations on The Application of Chaos Theory to Fluid Mechanics available from Meridian International Research, Aviation House,Wellesbourne Airport,Wellesbourne. Warwick. UK

      Even those ‘climate scientists’ with some appreciation of this matter fail to fully understand the implication of the chaotically deterministic aspects of our climate’s, and weather’s fluid motion.
      In other words an observed set of weather parameters may imply some easily predictable future situation but often such a prediction fails as all the governing parametric variations are not fully observed and/or the couplings, interactions, and feedbacks are not properly understood.

      Finally a question for the any ‘climate scientist’, or anyone who believes they know —
      “What are all the governing parameters of our climate.”

  3. tom0mason permalink
    February 4, 2016 11:23 pm

    Paul,
    Thank-you for your hard work and this excellent piece.

    With regard to your complaint

    One of the problems with the Unisys set up is that they don’t state what baseline their anomalies are based on. Therefore it is difficult to say whether the north is unusually cold, or the south unusually warm.

    you may find http://earth.nullschool.net a better resource. (Click on the word ‘EARTH’ for the menu)
    The ‘about’ page states

    SST (Sea Surface Temp) | temperature of the ocean surface

    SSTA (Sea Surface Temp Anomaly) | difference in ocean temperature from
    daily average during years 1981-2011

    I hope you find this useful, keep-up the fine work.

  4. RAH permalink
    February 5, 2016 1:24 am

    I suggest you may want to check out Joe Bastardis Saturday summary.

    http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-30-2016

    At about the 1 minute mark he gets into how high pressure has disrupted the arctic vortex and is pushing the cold down your way.

  5. Jack Dawkins permalink
    February 5, 2016 11:52 am

    Piers Corbyn, the well-known and very successful long-range forecaster, argues that we are heading for a Mini Ice Age. He says, “It is standard meteorology that the recent wild weather extremes and contrasts follow from the wild Jet Stream behaviour. That Wild Jet Stream (Mini-Ice-Age) behaviout was and is regularly predicted by Piers Corbyn’s Solar-Lunar approach and is nothing to do with CO2.

    See http://www.weatheraction.com

    A pdf of Piers’ views on the whole global warming scam is available at http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews14No06.pdf

    “The main periodical solar activity effect – the largest observed periodicity present in world temperature data – is the 22 year cycle (driven by sun-earth magnetic connectivity). Hence for about half the time, the 11 year cycle of solar activity of particles, sunspots and radiation will move with temperature and half the time move against it. This is well known to solar and climate scientists. All the pseudo-scientists have done is essentially choose time spans where the two move in opposite directions and ignore demonstrated correlations on longer time spans”

    • emsnews permalink
      February 6, 2016 3:00 pm

      Absolutely! This is why they deliberately cherry pick the starting date for ‘global warming’ to coincide with the beginning of the present 30 year warm cycle. At the peak of this cycle is the present el Nino which they are pretending is the worst, ever.

      It is already rapidly fading, fast! And we will have a ferocious la Nina which they will totally ignore. Brace yourself for that event next winter! A doozy.

  6. Tim Hammond permalink
    February 5, 2016 12:01 pm

    As far as I can tell, the picture if SSTs always shows that almost the entirety of the oceans s either hotter or cooler than “average”. I find that either pretty unlikely or evidence that the oceans are only very rarely “average”, which makes the whole comparison with average meaningless.

    Is this correct?

    • February 5, 2016 1:42 pm

      Yes, it does seem extraordinary

      • emsnews permalink
        February 6, 2016 3:01 pm

        To be correct, they should have ‘normal’ be green as a transition color to the map. I suspect all the yellow is this ‘green’ portion.

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