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Arctic Ice Update

February 18, 2016

By Paul Homewood 

  

https://rclutz.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/masie-2016-jan-and-feb-to-48.jpg?w=600&h=231

 

Ron Clutz has the latest Arctic sea ice data here.

 

https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/02/18/icy-arctic-mid-february/

16 Comments leave one →
  1. February 18, 2016 7:37 pm

    I keep having visions of these graphs being presented at an enquiry where former academics and government advisers are being asked why they continued pushing the scam when the evidence was so against them.

  2. David Richardson permalink
    February 18, 2016 7:46 pm

    Looks like not a lot happening with Arctic Sea Ice overall – a decade of up and down a bit really if you look at the average area throughout a year. Ron Clutz shows the NASA mapping of where sea ice was in 2006 and where it was in 1979 – hardly that startling a difference really and it hasn’t changed much since than.

    One aspect often ignored (or even not noticed) is that all the sea ice products are not created equal, with some using a 15% plus criteria and others using 30%plus . To an extent you can be left comparing apples and oranges.

    Pretty much all of the products show the 15% plus level as being at a “record” low-point but not much different to last year and close to the 10 year average at present (as shown above) – as I say not a lot to see.

    DMI, the excellent Danish Met Service, caused a bit of controversy recently when they published a 30% plus product that showed a big increase in Sea Ice so far in 2016. This has now been withdrawn. Was it a mistake? It showed that at New Year 30% plus sea ice was at a high level (10m km2) and had been high for some weeks – this has also been changed or discontinued. Several people have posted the changes shown by the wayback machine and the product was showing a high level of sea ice right back to the start of December. It leaves a smell and is certainly not good for their reputation.

    • February 18, 2016 7:59 pm

      The NASA image is also interesting by showing that most of the difference between minimum and maximum extents over the satellite era is due to Barents and Greenland Seas. Russian scientists at AARI have also concluded from studying 100 years of ice charts that most of the annual variability comes from those 2 seas. They are of course located at the gateway of Atlantic water and the Arctic Ocean.

    • AndyG55 permalink
      February 19, 2016 4:35 am

      Direct from DMI customer service..
      [quote starts next line]

      Dear X.XXXXX (name removed)

      Below is the answer from our science department:

      I have removed the old sea ice extent graphics and the new graphics (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.php) is now our one and only official sea ice extent.

      When I introduced the new graphics I also announced that the old graphics would be removed after some time – and now is the time, sorry.
      I spend too much time explaining the differences and it was quit confusing for many – so, I decided to remove the old graphics. However, all the data are available here http://osisaf.met.no/p/ if you would like do the plotting your selves.

      Best regards

      Kundeservice/Customer Service

      DMI

      [quote ends]

      • Pethefin permalink
        February 19, 2016 6:06 am

        Very convenient timing for the discontinuation since the sea-ice had just tied the previous 10-year-high of 2010. Even worse, they reinterpreted the rise since fall 2015 so that now the rise disappeared without any explanation. And on top of everything else, they removed the very inconvenient index for the 2016 completely.

      • richard verney permalink
        February 19, 2016 10:09 am

        That news is very hot off the press.

        Earlier this week, I logged onto DMI, and the other plot was still up and showing 2016 as clearly having the greatest ice extent over the last 10 years. Unfortunately, I did not take a screen shot because I was unaware that the data/plot was coming down/being removed.

        I do not see why they do not keep both plots up and simply caption what data they are using in each plot, ie., what each plot is showing. That way they would have explained the difference and would not therefore respond to enquiries.

        .

      • Pethefin permalink
        February 19, 2016 1:48 pm

        Richard, you will find a link to an archive below.

  3. February 18, 2016 9:29 pm

    In the satellite era it’s difficult to ‘hide the sea ice’. Climate spin doctors will have to find other excuses for nature’s failure to conform to the sea ice predictions of climate models.

  4. Tom Berend permalink
    February 19, 2016 12:20 am

    very different data presented on Nevins blog. one of the two is cherry picking or simply inventing data.

    http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/02/an-exceptional-exception.html

  5. Pethefin permalink
    February 19, 2016 5:59 am

    The DMI 30 % sea-ice coverage was showing such an amazing rise that the DMI finally did away with their coverage. They have now finally discontinued the inconvenient 30 % ice coverage index and replaced it with a picture where the recent rise of the sea ice after October 2015 has been “reinterpreted”:

    Luckily I had been archiving their website with help of WayBackMachine: http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
    and
    http://web.archive.org/web/20160214084633/http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
    The DMI not only reinterpreted away the rise of the sea-ice since fall 2015, they also removed the index for 2016 just as it tied the 10-year-high of 2010:

    So there were no true scientists left at the DMI after all.

    • Pethefin permalink
      February 19, 2016 1:46 pm

      For some reason the first graph above does show correctly in the latest version, click on it to see what DMI has been up to

      • February 19, 2016 4:27 pm

        Upthread the message from DMI provides a link to the data from which the 30% chart is produced. I followed it, but could not find a dataset, just lots of image files. Does anyone know of access to the dataset?

  6. February 20, 2016 6:26 pm

    Yes Ron, as luck would have it I do.

    What on Earth would you do with that data though? Those numbers have been “deprecated” by DMI for many moons now!

    • AndyG55 permalink
      February 20, 2016 7:24 pm

      Still a HUGE amount more Arctic sea ice than during the first 3/4 of the Holocene, isn’t there Jimbo. !!

      That’s because we are now at the cold end of this current interglacial.

  7. Lawrence Martin permalink
    February 20, 2016 8:08 pm

    Jimbo Hunt

    Are you and that so called Neven part of that DMI conspiracy to eliminate the 30% ice
    coverage because it inconveniently showed increased coverage?

    You can’t fool everyone, this citizen scientist understands exactly who you are and what you are trying to accomplish here.

  8. February 20, 2016 8:18 pm

    What “DMI conspiracy” would that be Lawrence? The DMI have been saying quite literally for years, that their 30% threshold metric was unsupported and hence “deprecated”.

    Since you are evidently a mind reader, perhaps you would be so good as to explain to me who I am and what I am trying to accomplish here?

    As luck would have it my very good friend Snow White is in actual fact a psychic too! She has reliably informed me that yet another all time (since satellite records began at least) low of the Cryosphere Today global sea ice area metric will occur during the next 2 or 3 days.

    She confidently asserts it will drop to 14.31 million square kilometers or thereabouts. I cannot wait to discover whose psychic powers are the most skillful. Yours or hers?

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