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DECC’s Latest GHG Projections

February 27, 2016

By Paul Homewood 


DECC have just updated their latest projections for GHG emissions in the UK. 





Projections through to 2030 are based on the “Reference Scenario”, defined as:


Based on central estimates of economic growth and fossil fuel prices. Contains all agreed policies where decisions on policy design are sufficiently advanced to allow robust estimates of impact (i.e. including "planned" policies).


Provisional data for 2015 gives a figure of 545 MtCO2e, compared to the 1990 baseline of 807 MtCO2e. So in other words, we have already achieved a cut of 32%.

Our commitment in the Paris Treaty is part of the EU INDC, which states:




To achieve that 40% cut, we need to reduce GHG emissions to 484 MtCO2e, which, according to the DECC projections, we shall meet by 2017.

Yet it has already been legislated that emissions over the five years of the fourth carbon budget (2023-2027) are to be capped at 1,950 MtCO2e, equivalent to an average 52% below 1990 levels. And the Committee on Climate Change is now recommending that emissions be cut further, to 57% below 1990 levels for the fifth carbon budget (2028-32).

Nobody denies that this can only be achieved at a massive cost. The Levy Control Framework, which sets a cap to limit the costs passed on to consumers through the long-term contracts, is already set at £7.6 billion for 2020/21, and this is at 2011/12 prices. In today’s money, we are looking at about £8.3 billion.

Moreover, the LCF does not include all of the extra costs involved, such as the Climate Change Levy and cost of smart meters.

And the CCC now tell us that they estimate that meeting the proposed fifth carbon budget will involve an annual cost in 2030 that is up to £3 billion more than the cost of meeting the fourth carbon budget that has already been legislated.

In any sensible world, we would be tearing up the existing legislation, setting a target instead of a 40% cut, and telling John Gummer to take a running jump!

  1. February 27, 2016 5:51 pm

    Craven worship before the golden calf of this childish semi-myth. I guess step 1 of getting back to sanity is Brexit. The EU is institutionally Gaian.

  2. Bloke down the pub permalink
    February 27, 2016 6:57 pm

    Have they factored in the emissions from candles which will be increasing as their potty policies shut down the power grid?

    • February 27, 2016 7:54 pm

      & the extra animals we have to fatten up to render down into tallow for the candles…paraffin wax candles are made from….oil & that has to stay in the ground !!!

    • AndyG55 permalink
      February 27, 2016 8:10 pm

      Don’t forget all those diesel powered generators, which they probably don’t “count”

  3. AndyG55 permalink
    February 27, 2016 8:09 pm

    Pity CO2 moves, otherwise the UK could suffer a drop in plant growth as well as in electricity supply.

  4. February 27, 2016 9:10 pm

    The really pathetic thing here is there is no such thing as a greenhouse gas. After 20 years of following the science not one single piece of conclusive evidence or repeatable experiment exists in support of the greenhouse gas theory. But in that 20 years I have seen conclusive evidence that shows we can’t accurately measure CO2 in ice cores, that carbon dating (and all radio dating) is likely all wrong and therefore all our time chronologies are very wrong. We have Roman aqueducts buried under German coalfields, just think that one through for a bit, and we have physical evidence that 700 years of the middle ages did not exist.

    But we continue to believe, just like a religion. Our engineers can send a probe 300 million miles into space to a comet, and send down a lander, an unquestionably amazing feat. Yet this was spoilt by the one fact that the engineers were given that was wrong, and known to be wrong, that the comet was made of ice. The scientists who made that decision, were true believers, yet they were warned that the comets were rock. Yet like all true believers they insisted they knew better. And even faced with hard close-up evidence some still can’t bring themselves to admit they were wrong.

    All of which brings me back to this article. What purpose does this information it serve other than a very important measure of stupidity?

    • February 27, 2016 9:49 pm

      I would have thought the answer was obvious.

      We are expected to make much bigger reductions in the UK than anybody else incl the EU

      Whether you think CO2 makes any difference or not, that is plainly ludicrous

    • Sceptical Sam permalink
      February 28, 2016 1:57 am

      Peter, please check your facts.

      Re: Roman aqueducts buried under German coalfields

      The Eifel Aqueduct was built below ground by the Romans to prevent the water it was supplying from freezing up. It carried water some 100 km from its Urft source to what is today Cologne. A remarkable piece of technology. That is what the physical evidence shows. Even with the Roman Warm period in place, it still got very cold in Germany – cold enough to freeze water in aqueducts.

    • February 28, 2016 8:53 am

      “we have physical evidence that 700 years of the middle ages did not exist.”

      Please explain, with examples/refs

    • February 28, 2016 1:03 pm

      Peter states: ” there is no such thing as a greenhouse gas”. My undergraduate plant physiology textbook from 1964 correctly refers to these as “atmospheric gases”. I tell folks that the only place to find “greenhouse gases” is within a greenhouse. Of course the term was invented to make atmospheric gases sound ominous and unnatural –can we say “man-caused?”

  5. johnmarshall permalink
    February 28, 2016 11:30 am

    The only sensible solution in the real world is repeal the Climate Change Act and start fracking. Convert Drax back to coal and stop the coal generation closures.
    Oh! and leave the EU.

    • John Palmer permalink
      February 28, 2016 7:04 pm

      …. and shut down DECC. They’re like those forgotten Japanese soldiers after WWII. A last spiteful vestige of Lib-Dem influence hiding away in Whitehall.
      Kill-em-off ASAP!!

  6. February 28, 2016 5:54 pm

    Surely the ambition is to close down what remains of energy intensive industry in the UK.

    • ralfellis permalink
      February 28, 2016 7:40 pm

      Indeed. All reductions are being achieved by closing down all our industry. And by the time we are all in mud huts, burning tallow candles, the targets will have been achieved. The Luddites had nothing on these guys, the most destructive cabal ever known to man. … On a par with the cabal who destroyed the Western Roman Empire.

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