How The Pause Was Made To Disappear
By Paul Homewood
Once upon a time there was a pause.
There was no secret or argument about this. Hundreds of scientists spent years trying to explain it.
The Met Office even published the above 24 page paper in 2013, which stated:
And this was exactly the situation the Met Office were looking at when they made that pronouncement.
But as we know, the pause has been a big embarrassment to the climate establishment, because the longer it goes on, the more it casts doubt on their models.
Indeed, the Met Office’s Hadley Centre had already replaced HADCRUT3 with version 4, because that had been showing a cooling trend.
But the problem still would not go away, despite the latest El Nino, which started two years ago.
So step forward Thomas Karl, Director of NOAA’s NCEI (formerly NCDC), with his well publicised pausebuster adjustments last summer. Below is the effect on NOAA’s global temperature dataset. Compared to 1998, 0.05C was added to 2014’s temperatures. (In addition, 1998 had already been downgraded by 0.03C prior to 2010, making a total adjustment of 0.08C – see here).
There was never any question about the purpose of Karl’s study, as their press extract made clear at the time:
Previous analyses of global temperature trends during the first decade of the 21st century seemed to indicate that warming had stalled. This allowed critics of the idea of global warming to claim that concern about climate change was misplaced. Karl et al. now show that temperatures did not plateau as thought and that the supposed warming “hiatus” is just an artifact of earlier analyses. Warming has continued at a pace similar to that of the last half of the 20th century, and the slowdown was just an illusion.
The adjustments made were quickly shown up to be questionable at the very least, and, given the clear politicisation involved, are now subject to a full Congressional enquiry.
It was no surprise at all when GISS immediately followed suit, and made a similar set of adjustments.
Again, this was just the last in a series of smaller adjustments in recent years, all working in the same direction of increasing temperatures in recent years.
However, there remained one big problem – those awkward satellites that stubbornly still showed the pause to be very real.
Much pressure was put onto RSS, and now, with a weary inevitability, they now claim to have found some huge errors in their previous work, which (surprise, surprise) means that the pause never existed after all.
So far, their “corrections” only apply to mid-troposphere temperatures, but it seems only a matter of time before they do the same with lower-troposphere as well.
There have already been devastating critiques of some of the changes made, and, indeed, the RSS paper justifying the changes was rejected by the Journal of Geophysical Research. But none of this will stop the new RSS version from being published elsewhere with the help of pal review.
All very convenient!