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How The Pause Was Made To Disappear

March 9, 2016

By Paul Homewood 

  

image_thumb51

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/06/09/the-met-office-the-pause-2/

 

Once upon a time there was a pause.

There was no secret or argument about this. Hundreds of scientists spent years trying to explain it.

The Met Office even published the above 24 page paper in 2013, which stated:

 

image_thumb52

 

 

 

And this was exactly the situation the Met Office were looking at when they made that pronouncement.

 

 

trend

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2001/to:2013/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2001/to:2013/trend

 

But as we know, the pause has been a big embarrassment to the climate establishment, because the longer it goes on, the more it casts doubt on their models.

Indeed, the Met Office’s Hadley Centre had already replaced HADCRUT3 with version 4, because that had been showing a cooling trend.

 

 

trend

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2001/to:2013/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2001/to:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2001/to:2013/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2001/to:2013/trend

 

 

But the problem still would not go away, despite the latest El Nino, which started two years ago.

So step forward Thomas Karl, Director of NOAA’s NCEI (formerly NCDC), with his well publicised pausebuster adjustments last summer. Below is the effect on NOAA’s global temperature dataset. Compared to 1998, 0.05C was added to 2014’s temperatures. (In addition, 1998 had already been downgraded by 0.03C prior to 2010, making a total adjustment of 0.08C – see here).

 

 

image

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/1880-2016

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/09/noaancei-temperature-anomaly-adjustments-since-2010-pray-they-dont-alter-it-any-further/

 

There was never any question about the purpose of Karl’s study, as their press extract made clear at the time:

Previous analyses of global temperature trends during the first decade of the 21st century seemed to indicate that warming had stalled. This allowed critics of the idea of global warming to claim that concern about climate change was misplaced. Karl et al. now show that temperatures did not plateau as thought and that the supposed warming “hiatus” is just an artifact of earlier analyses. Warming has continued at a pace similar to that of the last half of the 20th century, and the slowdown was just an illusion.

   

The adjustments made were quickly shown up to be questionable at the very least, and, given the clear politicisation involved, are now subject to a full Congressional enquiry.   

 

It was no surprise at all when GISS immediately followed suit, and made a similar set of adjustments.

 

 

image

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

http://web.archive.org/web/20150317061914/http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

 

Again, this was just the last in a series of smaller adjustments in recent years, all working in the same direction of increasing temperatures in recent years.

 

image_thumb181

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/07/31/mann-made-warming-at-giss/

 

 

 

However, there remained one big problem – those awkward satellites that stubbornly still showed the pause to be very real.

 

 

to 2016

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2001/to:2016/trend/plot/rss/from:2001/to:2016

 

 

Much pressure was put onto RSS, and now, with a weary inevitability, they now claim to have found some huge errors in their previous work, which (surprise, surprise) means that the pause never existed after all.

So far, their “corrections” only apply to mid-troposphere temperatures, but it seems only a matter of time before they do the same with lower-troposphere as well. 

 

image_thumb14

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/03/04/rss-nobbled/

 

 

There have already been devastating critiques of some of the changes made, and, indeed, the RSS paper justifying the changes was rejected by the Journal of Geophysical Research. But none of this will stop the new RSS version from being published elsewhere with the help of pal review.  

All very convenient!

18 Comments leave one →
  1. CheshireRed permalink
    March 9, 2016 12:28 pm

    Some would say this isn’t just ‘all very convenient’ so much as outright data fraud. Given the huge organisations involved if there’s evidence of unjustifiable adjustments is there a case for invoking RICO laws?

  2. March 9, 2016 1:06 pm

    And the plateau adds to evidence putting doubt against the central claim.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/03/07/claim-fossil-fuels-cause-global-warming/

  3. Jack Broughton permalink
    March 9, 2016 1:12 pm

    Maybe the world is moving to a virtual world where primitive world mathematical models predict virtual temperatures that require all measured values to be “adjusted” to match.

    Perhaps we need to reduce virtual carbon dioxide in a similar manner, that would please everyone and keep the lights on. So, virtual-coal could become 50 % carbon and virtual-oil 60% carbon, providing massive savings in virtual-emissions and meeting all virtual targets while agreeing with the computer model god.

  4. Don B permalink
    March 9, 2016 1:12 pm

    The recent Fyfe et al throw Karl and others under the bus. The coauthors are not “climate change deniers,” but IPCC lead authors by and large.

    “Nature: Making sense of the early 2000’s warming slowdown

    “It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims. – Fyfe et al.”

    https://judithcurry.com/2016/02/24/nature-making-sense-of-the-early-2000s-warming-slowdown/

  5. TonyM permalink
    March 9, 2016 2:29 pm

    Joe Bastardi, meteorologist at Weatherbell.com, has an interesting historical temperature chart showing that strong El Ninos like the one we are now experiencing and that have occurred 3 or 4 times over the last 20 years, are inevitably followed by equally strong La Ninas within the next couple of years that drive temperatures down significantly. Weatherbell.com is a pay to play commercial weather website but Bastardi posts free daily and weekly ( on Saturday) video forecasts on the main web page. He is in the ant-AGW camp, by the way. He provides a lot of historical weather data in his forecasts.

  6. sean2829 permalink
    March 9, 2016 2:36 pm

    Guys like Tom Karl would not get away with this if the traditional press had not become a PR channel for government pronouncements. So there are a lot of things that have been corrupted, not just the science.

  7. March 9, 2016 2:47 pm

    Q: where’s the evidence showing temperatures following CO2 levels as expected by climate models?
    A: nowhere as the climate models are all wrong.

    Arguing about 0.0x of a degree on a graph isn’t going to solve that problem.

  8. March 9, 2016 3:06 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

  9. John Peter permalink
    March 9, 2016 4:58 pm

    Dear Oldbrew, we are only at the start of a process to nudge temperature records bit by bit towards the models. Only Trump or Cruz in the White House can stop the process and reverse it back to evidence based records (in so far as this is possible). No chance that Cameron & Rudd will interfere in the “good” work delivered by Met Office and CRU.

  10. eliza permalink
    March 9, 2016 6:51 pm

    You should send this to all media

  11. manicbeancounter permalink
    March 9, 2016 8:58 pm

    Warming has stopped, or slowed. Only if warming resumes will it be a pause or hiatus.

  12. Agent76 permalink
    March 9, 2016 9:27 pm

    Dec 7, 2015 What Is The Average Global Temperature?

    The average global temperature is…impossible to measure and harder to calculate than you might think. While GISS and RSS and UAH and GHCN might be a confusing jumble of letters to most people, there are people pushing for global taxes, global courts and individual carbon budgets based on these data sets. So let’s roll up our sleeves and take a look at the concept of “average global temperature.”

    SHOW NOTES: https://www.corbettreport.com/?p=17190

  13. March 10, 2016 1:23 am

    Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    Bookmark this …

  14. songhees permalink
    March 10, 2016 2:50 am

    Latest book and documentary.
    ‘The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science’.



    http://www.drtimball.com

    Debate between Dr Tim Ball and Elizabeth May
    Scroll down to Ian Jessop part 1
    http://www.cfax1070.com/Podcasts

  15. W Smith permalink
    March 13, 2016 9:45 am

    2010 data revised by 0.7C as at 2015. Truly incredible.

  16. Archetype permalink
    March 16, 2016 3:20 am

    Reblogged this on The Road to Revelation and commented:
    The dangerous lies, deception and fraud continues in the West…the Tyranny of the Fourth Reich is growing day by day. The question I pose to YOU Mr and Ms republican/democrat/labour or conservative voter/supporter…is what the fuck are YOU going to do about it? YOU’RE the one enabling tyranny, BY voting for it, by supporting it, by pardoning it. YOU’RE part of the fucking problem. Statist, Ideological, Ignorant Muppet.

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