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Fools And Their Money

March 28, 2016
tags:

By Paul Homewood 

 

image

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/forecasters-dial-down-record-easter-232200077.html

 

Fools and their money! Yahoo reported a couple of weeks ago:

 

Gamblers hoping to cash in on record temperatures this Easter may be disappointed.

With large parts of the UK enjoying sunshine at the weekend and some places having their warmest day so far this year, bookmaker Coral has seen a flurry of bets for Easter being the warmest since records began and has cut the odds on it being a record-breaking Easter from 3/1 to 2/1.

It is only a fortnight since rival bookmaker Ladbrokes predicted snow somewhere in the UK at Easter, something the Met Office has described as “unlikely”.

Forecaster Marco Petagna said temperatures were currently close to average and he doubted it would be unusually hot or cold for Easter Sunday on March 27.

He said the current warm weather will continue for the next 7-10 days but it could get colder towards the end of the month, with sleet in high places.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/forecasters-dial-down-record-easter-232200077.html

 

Why are people so gullible? Have they been so indoctrinated to believe that global warming is sending temperatures through the roof?

I mean really, odds of 2/1, just because the sun has come out?

 

The reality is mean temperatures for during March have never veered far from average either way.

 

 

HadCET_act_graphEX

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Given the fact that Easter changes its date every year, I have absolutely no idea what the record temperature would be. But the hottest March 27th on CET was in 2012, when maximum temperatures peaked at 19.5C.

There has been noticeable trend to higher temperatures in recent decades.

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

 

The Met Office won’t update daily temperatures until next month, but yesterday, the BBC showed temperatures between 7C and 10C for central England.

 

ScreenHunter_3849 Mar. 27 14.45

 

The Met Office also show a highest temperature for the UK of 12.8C in Hull.

 

ScreenHunter_3851 Mar. 28 11.27

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/

 

 

Interestingly, the all time record temperature for March was set on 29th March 1968 in Mepal, Cambridgeshire.

Given that many Easters fall in April, I think we can safely assume that yesterday was one of the colder ones!

8 Comments leave one →
  1. March 28, 2016 12:49 pm

    Last I heard it was blowing a gale in the south and the airports were diverting flights further north. Doesn’t sound much like heatwave there.

  2. Broadlands permalink
    March 28, 2016 1:31 pm

    I “cherry-picked” this one… March 1938

    Reading through Charles Lindbergh’s Wartime Journals, 1970, pages 11-12, he wrote this just outside London on Sunday April 3rd, 1938, 78 years ago…

    “Wonderful weather since we landed last month. Was beginning to become enthusiastic about the weather in England until Anne read in the morning’s Observer that it was the warmest March for 150 years.”

    She didn’t notice what the CO2 value was.

    And, on the other side of the “pond”…

    J.P. Kohler… WEATHER OF 1938 IN THE UNITED STATES

    Recent studies indicate that the tendency to higher temperatures which set in about 1900 has been definitely outstanding in the last decade. Temperature records for the past 20 years show 1929 as the only year appreciably cooler than normal, for the country as a whole; 1919 and 1924 were slightly below normal. The remaining years had above-normal warmth.”

  3. It doesn't add up... permalink
    March 28, 2016 1:43 pm

    Snow in Derbyshire:

    • March 28, 2016 2:40 pm

      We had some on our back garden this morning, but it melted by the time I got up.

    • David Richardson permalink
      March 28, 2016 7:53 pm

      That doesn’t add up – A Met Office spokesmen said it was unlikely – when do Ladbrokes start doing weather forecasts??

  4. A C Osborn permalink
    March 28, 2016 2:23 pm

    Paul, should this line
    “There has been noticeable trend to higher temperatures in recent decades.”
    actually say
    There has been NO noticeable trend to higher temperatures in recent decades.

    • Broadlands permalink
      March 28, 2016 3:52 pm

      A C… Yes, but that trend has been “adjusted” by NOAA and shown to be an “artifact”. It’s a non-existent trend… that prior to its “adjustment” several papers had gone out of their way to explain? And the adjustments failed to adjust the trends in the US 48 states, which are still trending downward since 1998.

  5. miket permalink
    March 28, 2016 6:53 pm

    Broadlands, Not sure I follow your explanation. That graph appears to show the 30s and 40s as warmest decades. You are talking globally about adjustments? And that “NO noticeable trend….” would be correct here?

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