El Nino Update
By Paul Homewood
There are signs that the El Nino is now rapidly declining, according to this week’s NWS update.
SST anomalies have been declining since mid January, but the pace seems to have accelerated in the last week.
Compare with the situation in January:
The change in the last four weeks can be seen below:
It is not just sea surface temperatures which are falling away. A huge pool of colder than normal water below the surface is building its way back east, and has now reached 110 degrees west.
Perhaps most revealing of all is the rapidly decline in upper upper ocean heat anomalies since November in the Central and Eastern Pacific, which now stand in negative territory.
Strong La Nina conditions now look increasingly likely towards the end of this year.