El Nino Continues To Decline
By Paul Homewood
A quick update on the ENSO situation, with El Nino conditions continuing to rapidly diminish.
Most of the warm water has been pushed right back to the South American coast, and now a huge mass of cold water has built up beneath the surface. Once the warm water has evaporated, there will only be cold water to replace it.
I’ll leave you with this graph.
Unlike most other forecasts, NOAA’s NCEP had been forecasting a return to strengthening El Nino conditions in the autumn. As I have been pointing out for a while, there is simply no warm water left anywhere in that part of the Pacific to repower the El Nino.
NOAA finally admitted a couple of weeks ago that their model was faulty, and have now changed their forecasts as below. This now suggests we can expect La Nina conditions by July.
La Nina conditions won’t really impact on global temperatures until the end of the year, but, as El Nino continues to weaken, we can still expect a dramatic fall in temperatures in the next few months.