Skip to content

El Nino Continues To Decline

April 12, 2016

By Paul Homewood 




A quick update on the ENSO situation, with El Nino conditions continuing to rapidly diminish.






Most of the warm water has been pushed right back to the South American coast, and now a huge mass of cold water has built up beneath the surface. Once the warm water has evaporated, there will only be cold water to replace it.






I’ll leave you with this graph.

Unlike most other forecasts, NOAA’s NCEP had been forecasting a return to strengthening El Nino conditions in the autumn. As I have been pointing out for a while, there is simply no warm water left anywhere in that part of the Pacific to repower the El Nino.

NOAA finally admitted a couple of weeks ago that their model was faulty, and have now changed their forecasts as below. This now suggests we can expect La Nina conditions by July.





La Nina conditions won’t really impact on global temperatures until the end of the year, but, as El Nino continues to weaken, we can still expect a dramatic fall in temperatures in the next few months.

  1. Dr K.A. Rodgers permalink
    April 12, 2016 5:02 pm

    On a personal note: I hope this change sees some decent rain return to inland South Canterbury in New Zealand’s South Island. The last substantial downpour was at the beginning of May 2014. Much of the east coast of the South Island has suffered from semi-drought since this El Nino kicked-in . February this year was very dry. But for some half-decent rain in January we would have moved into full drought.

  2. Adam permalink
    April 12, 2016 6:30 pm

    Dramatic fall in temperatures in the next few months!

    Not a chance, but you will get some new “adjustments”

  3. Broadlands permalink
    April 12, 2016 6:34 pm

    At the risk of exposing further ignorance, where does that warm water go, or where does the cold water come from? I see that the warmest surface waters on the planet (33°C) have moved north from Australia to Indonesia.

    • April 12, 2016 9:42 pm

      Warm surface water loses heat to the atmosphere via evaporation.

      Cold water comes from below. Once the El Nino runs out of steam, the east to west trade winds resume, pushing the currents to the west. That surface water is replaced by cold upwelling water.

      There’s a simple summary from NOAA here.

    • April 12, 2016 11:30 pm

      Where does that warm water go? Its only a degree or two warmer. I guess its losing energy via long wave radiation all the time. Its also moving westwards into zones with more or less cloud, where the air moves quicker or slower and is wetter or drier. But ultimately, we are not really monitoring the surface temperature of the ocean as a whole, just a tiny part that is very much affected by what’s in-putted from the East via the ocean currents. Its a mixing zone. Its like standing on the edge of a motorway and watching the people who must return at the end of the day from whence they came. In the process, we don’t learn much about their actual places of abode.

      ‘As he sat on the grass and looked across the river, a dark hole in the bank opposite, just above the water’s edge, caught his eye, and dreamily he fell to considering what a nice snug dwelling-place it would make for an animal with few wants and fond of a bijou riverside residence, above flood level and remote from noise and dust. As he gazed, something bright and small seemed to twinkle down in the heart of it, vanished, then twinkled once more like a tiny star. But it could hardly be a star in such an unlikely situation; and it was too glittering and small for a glow-worm. Then, as he looked, it winked at him, and so declared itself to be an eye; and a small face began gradually to grow up round it, like a frame round a picture.’ Kenneth Grahame

      • dave permalink
        April 14, 2016 9:44 am

        I always found it a little creepy that when Mole and Rat are making up their picknic basket – it contains ham sandwiches. The image of a pig being way-laid, butchered, and hung up to cure, by a gang of tiny rodents!

  4. April 12, 2016 7:13 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: