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This professor says devastating climate change will be irreversible unless fossil fuels are abandoned by 2030

May 3, 2016

By Paul Homewood 

 

h/t Paul R

 

image

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/professor-says-devastating-climate-change-11269375#ICID=ios_WalesOnlineNewsApp_AppShare_Click_Other

 

You’d be excused for thinking it was a piece of Greenpeace propaganda, but this junk comes from Professor Gareth Wyn Jones, joint author of the Land Use and Climate Change Report.

From WalesOnLine:

 

Wales may get cooler and several coastal areas will flood, warned Professor Gareth Wyn Jones.

 

All fossil fuels should be abandoned by 2030 or devastating climate change will be irreversible, an expert has warned.

Gareth Wyn Jones, Emeritus Professor at Bangor University, said coastal areas of Wales will flood if climate change continues.

The joint author of the Land Use and Climate Change Report said urgent change is vital to stop global warming.

Paradoxically, some areas, including Wales, may temporarily cool as a result of climate change, he said.

He added the changes will be unstoppable as parts of the earth become more arid and a few others, Wales among them, get wetter and colder.

The professor has advised international governments on agriculture in dry areas.

Refugees fleeing famine, drought and strife caused by the greenhouse effect will join those fleeing wars as countries worst affected by global warming become unable to sustain life.

Professor Wyn Jones said the signing of the new UN climate deal on April 22 was a diplomatic triumph but “no guarantee of climate salvation”.

He warned: “The longer we leave it the greater the risk becomes of something serious happening.

“Coastal parts of Wales, the Gwent Levels, Llandudno and coastal towns like Fairbourne in Gwynedd will flood.”

Emeritus Professor Gareth Wyn Jones of Bangor University

 

He is frustrated at the lack of action from governments and individuals although some countries are taking the threat seriously.

He said: “The Dutch are discussing legislation that cars purchased after 2025 will have to be electric.

“You won’t be allowed to buy a petrol-fuelled car. I would like the Welsh and British governments to do something similar.

“We need to improve public transport and be stronger on sharing cars and using electric or fuel cell cars.”

 

The professor also called on the Welsh Government to beef up planning laws, saying energy could be saved by:

  • Requiring all new buildings to have face south-facing roofs to allow solar panels;
  • Insulating all new buildings to much higher levels;
  • Discouraging petrol and diesel cars in favour of electric or fuel cell ones;
  • Electrifying the railways;
  • Building more local small hydro and wind plants to produce power;
  • Encouraging communal wind farm, biomass fuel and hydro power schemes.

 

He said individuals can help by:

  • Not taking long-haul flights and taking holidays more locally;
  • Never heating unused rooms and not turning central heating to more than about 18°C;
  • Switching off lights and equipment when not in use;
  • Using energy efficient LED light bulbs;
  • Driving energy-efficient cars and walking, cycling and taking public transport more;
  • Installing solar panels;
  • Insulating homes and workplaces

Professor Wyn Jones, who has worked in parts of Syria now under ISIS control and areas of Nigeria controlled by Boko Haram, said social and political unrest was sparked by increasingly dry, hot conditions causing crop failure and drought. With many of these areas now unstable, nuclear power is not the answer, he added.

He said people in Wales need to take the threat seriously or face a changed world with people on the move, flooding and unstable climates.

He said: “It is difficult to get the message about climate change across to people because it is a risk for the future. We are hard wired to make the best of where we are so thinking what the world might be like in 25 years is difficult.

“The political cycle of four to five years doesn’t help because long term action is needed for long term climate health. But the really good news is that we have the technologies to make the changes and we could enjoy better health and stronger communities as a result. Its not a trade off between jobs and the environment – just look at Denmark.

“The reports are that the Greenland ice sheet is melting rapidly. So while some places will get hotter as sea levels rise, the one place that’s not likely to warm suddenly is Wales.

“We might get cooler because the Gulf Stream, which keeps Wales warmer, may slow and the jet stream become more wavy, bringing down cold arctic air.”

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/professor-says-devastating-climate-change-11269375#ICID=ios_WalesOnlineNewsApp_AppShare_Click_Other

 

 

Let’s take a closer look at some of his loopier predictions:

 

1)“Coastal parts of Wales, the Gwent Levels, Llandudno and coastal towns like Fairbourne in Gwynedd will flood.” 

I looked at the case of Fairbourne back in February, where official predictions of 1 meter sea level rise this century have destroyed property prices there.

The reality is that around the coast of Wales, just as with the rest of the UK, sea levels are rising at a rate of about 7 inches/century, and have been for a century or more with no acceleration at all.

Most of Llandudno sits at about 10 meters above sea level, and will likely suffer no more damage than the occasional storm swept high tide which already occurs from time to time.

 

1854_high

 Monthly Sea Levels at Llandudno

http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/1854.php

 

2) The reports are that the Greenland ice sheet is melting rapidly

As we know, this claim is based on a few days of warm weather last month.

 

GT_Apr16_Fig1-350x476

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/04/30/no-greenland-is-not-melting-down/

 

 

Temperatures in Greenland were just as high in the 1930s and 40s as now, and there was no meltdown then.

 

t4250_a_thumb

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/04/30/no-greenland-is-not-melting-down/

 

And they were certain much warmer there in the Medieval, Roman and Minoan Warm Periods, not to mention most of the period since the end of the ice age. The ice did not disappear then, and certainly won’t now.

Screen Shot 2015-06-06 at 12.34.16

 

3) Paradoxically, some areas, including Wales, may temporarily cool as a result of climate change

This claim is based on the thoroughly debunked “Gulf Stream failure” scenario.

 

In reality, temperature trends in Wales have stabilised in the last two decades, whilst rainfall trends are similar to what they were a century ago.

You would be excused for wondering why the good professor forgot to tell you all of this.

 

image

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

 

4) Help reduce CO2

His list of all of the things individuals and governments can do to save the planet ignores the fact that the UK’s emissions of CO2 amount to just 1% of global ones.

We could turn the country into N Korea tomorrow, and it would not make an ounce of difference to global warming.

 

 

5) Abandon fossil fuels by 2030

I presume he is aware that fossil fuels currently supply 86% of the world’s energy. And that, even with all of the Paris Treaty commitments built in, this is still expected to be 80% by 2035.

I also presume he is aware that China, India and most of the rest of the developing world will, according to their own plans, increase CO2 emissions in the years up to 2030.

Does he know that in Denmark, which he holds up as the renewable paragon, fossil fuels still supply 76% of energy consumption?

And is he aware of the human catastrophe that would follow the sort of sudden abandonment of coal, oil and gas?

 

 

 

Perhaps it is time Prof Wyn Jones got himself a proper job.

31 Comments leave one →
  1. martinbrumby permalink
    May 3, 2016 7:51 pm

    How do these buffoons get to be professor? (Even “Honorary…”?)

    I note:-
    “Research interests in plant nutrition and stress resistance, including heavy metal tolerance. Established, and was Director of, the Centre for Arid Zone Studies, UW Bangor (1984-91), Deputy Chief Executive of CCW (1991-95) and Chairman of ODA Plant Sciences Research Programme (1992-95). Chairman of Coed Cymru (1997-99), Vice Chairman of Rural Forum Wales (1998-), member of NT Nature Conservation Panel (2000-). Honorary member of Yr Orsedd and Board member of the Prince of Wales Trust-Bro On the editorial board of 4 science journals and a consultant on plant nutrition and rural development to numerous bodies, particularly in semi-arid areas in Africa and Asia.”

    So he likely knows as much about climate science as Emma Thompson.

    When I was a student we had much brighter laboratory assistants than this guy appears to be.

  2. BobR permalink
    May 3, 2016 7:52 pm

    Professor Wyn Jones is a very able man and his comments should be taken seriously. However as another emeritus professor, I disagree with his position and accepting all the points you make, we simply do not know at what temperature and concentration of CO2 the planet’s productivity and ability to sustain human and other life would be optimised. Was it the conditions prevailing 1000 years ago, 200 years ago, now or indeed with a further 2C of warming? We simply do not know and it is the answer to that question that should drive public policy not a simple imperative to cut emissions to pre-industrial levels. Cold climates lead to famine and pestilence, warm climates lead to enhanced growth and less environmental stress on all species.

    • Broadlands permalink
      May 3, 2016 8:20 pm

      BobR… We do know, however, that ~34 million years ago atmospheric CO2 was double what it is today, the pH of the oceans was lower but still alkaline, between 7.5 and 7.8, much lower than today’s “acidified” ocean. Carbonate shells were not dissolving. The Eocene climate was “equitable”.

      Source: Nature 461, 1110-1113 (22 October 2009) Pearson et al.
      “Atmospheric carbon dioxide through the Eocene–Oligocene climate transition”.

      • AZ1971 permalink
        May 3, 2016 11:38 pm

        The “oceans are becoming more acidic” meme is tired and false. If life first began in the cesspool it was when Earth first formed and before the great Oxygenation Event, that means that life will not only be sustained but thrive with the addition of even large amounts of CO2. The mollusks today that are dying off because of hyper-sensitivity to a specific pH level will inevitably be replaced by those who tolerate a wider and/or lower pH range, whether through natural selection or human intervention.

    • Dorian permalink
      May 3, 2016 8:52 pm

      Wyn Jones IS NOT AN ABLE man at all. Making blubbering idiotic statements about an area of science that he has no knowledge of is tantamount to out right LUNACY. This blubbering idiot is a Professor of Welsh Politics!!!

      If a professor of welsh politics (small caps intentional) can make statements about scientific matters then why don’t we just take the opinions from a street sweeper of how to go about building jet engines for passenger planes.

      BobR what are you? A professor of English literature or Greek history? Or worse ANOTHER BLUBBERING POLITICS BUFFOON!

      This is the problem today. Give someone a Ph.D in Humanities and they think they can go around doing brain surgery.

      Enough of this idiocy! PLEASE! ENOUGH!

      • Nigel Molesworth, Jr permalink
        May 3, 2016 11:56 pm

        As any fule kno Gareth Wyn Jones is Professor Emeritus of Plant Biology and Bioscience, and formerly Professor in the Schools of Biological Sciences and Agricultural and Forest Sciences, at Bangor University – not Welsh Politics!!!!

      • A C Osborn permalink
        May 4, 2016 10:31 am

        Then has he had some kind of mental breakdown to be spouting so much drivel.
        You saw the Facts presented by Paul, what do YOU think?

      • BobR permalink
        May 4, 2016 9:15 pm

        Rather a bizarre comment Dorian: you clearly haven’t bothered to do any background research into Wyn Jones, and then you start throwing around insults. Paul runs an excellent site and does a huge amount of research – your comment adds nothing to his site and gives ammunition to those who dismiss those of us who are sceptical of aspects of climate science as fringe nutcases whose arguments and evidence can be dismissed out of hand. Sadly, your comment says much more about you than it does about Wyn Jones or, indeed me. Might I suggest you grow up and learn some manners before commenting again?

  3. May 3, 2016 8:00 pm

    In 1988, noted scientist Ted Danson said the ocean would be dead in 10 years. Let’s do the math…….gee whiz, that was 28 years ago.

  4. saveenergy permalink
    May 3, 2016 8:06 pm

    Sorry to say, he’s our local village idiot.

    His “Research interests in plant nutrition and stress resistance” – but I don’t think he’s yet cottoned on to the fact that plants love CO2 !!!

  5. Broadlands permalink
    May 3, 2016 8:09 pm

    In November of 2007, the IPCC said the same thing:

    IPCC: Earth Faces Abrupt, Irreversible Changes. Climate Panel Says Immediate Change Is Necessary. The New York Times, Nov. 17, 2007

    We have reached and passed the “change point” and the “tipping point”…how many times now?

  6. Gordon Triggs permalink
    May 3, 2016 8:26 pm

    Nothing new about Wales (or anywhere else) being flooded. The Professor should walk around the cliff path between Langland Bay and Caswell Bay in Gower (not far for him to go) If he looks at Pwll Du Point he will see the ridges in the rocks where the sea was some 250 feet higher many thousands of years ago (not many people, no cars, trains, aeroplanes then) Sea went up to Clydach some 15 miles in land. I have photographs if he cant be bothered to go and observe the scientific facts for himself.
    Its ALL down to the three Milankovitch Cycles.

  7. Terry permalink
    May 3, 2016 9:00 pm

    He is a wicked liar. You should challenge him and stop giving people like him much needed publicity. Terri Jackson

    On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 8:32 PM, NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT wrote:

    > Paul Homewood posted: “By Paul Homewood h/t Paul R > http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/professor-says-devastating-climate-change-11269375#ICID=ios_WalesOnlineNewsApp_AppShare_Click_Other > You’d be excused for thinking it was a piece ” >

  8. CheshireRed permalink
    May 3, 2016 9:11 pm

    Is there a correlation between beards and dumb-ass climate predictions? I think we should be told. I’m prepared to undertake this crucial study for £500,000 pa over the next 3 years.

  9. Climate Otter permalink
    May 3, 2016 9:13 pm

    I have to wonder if his claim that Wales will get cooler, isn’t an attempt to get a foothold on the coming cooling cycle which they claim will not happen.

    • AndyG55 permalink
      May 5, 2016 2:33 am

      I suspect we will soon see quite a few “climate scientists™” coming out and saying that their particular region will get colder because of global warming.

  10. May 4, 2016 12:22 am

    He appears to have made statements of the glittering generalization variety without presenting any data and verification of the predictions. In other words, pure hokum.

  11. John F. Hultquist permalink
    May 4, 2016 3:12 am

    Professor Gareth must be sipping a bit too much Penderyn.
    Consider just the sales of trucks and SUVs in the USA. Record levels with millions already on the road, and an average life of ~15 years. Ford Co. sold over 2.6M vehicles in 2015. GM delivered over 200,000 last month (April 2016).
    Someone call Ford and General Motors and tell them to stop production today.

    Reminds me of the urban horse problem of the 2nd half of the 1800s. When an alternative to the horse/wagon came about (that would be gasoline powered trucks) there was a transition to the new mode. Currently there is not an alternative in view for transport via internal combustion engines. Thus, 2030 will be a lot like 2016.
    The Professor might want to stay well lubricated.

  12. lapogus permalink
    May 4, 2016 4:52 am

    Sadly we in Scotland also have an ill-informed Professor of Climate Doom – James Curran, e.g.:
    http://magazine.thenewidealist.com/2015/07/08/issue-5-online-extra-scotland-can-take-the-lead-on-climate-change-by-james-curran/

  13. May 4, 2016 5:44 am

    Standard alarmist fare really isn’t it?

    One does have do wonder exactly how many boxes the idjit himself has ticked?

  14. Andrew Duffin permalink
    May 4, 2016 7:47 am

    Did he also predict that millions will be starving across the world by the 1980’s?

    Oh no, sorry, that was some other Malthusian nut-job.

    You’d think they would learn, wouldn’t you…

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      May 5, 2016 5:48 am

      Paul Ehrlich, David Suzuki, Uncle Tom Cobleigh etc. Ehrlich had the mass starvation (in the USA) starting in 1974 when the oil ran out. Repeated about as often as Antiques Road Show on the ABC.

  15. May 4, 2016 8:07 am

    File under ‘nutty professor’. Where do these amateur fortune tellers get their hubris from?

    Bring on the next climate clown.

  16. AlecM permalink
    May 4, 2016 8:50 am

    The Man’s a Fool, but that’s what you get fro the Taffia recruitment process in Welsh Universities.

  17. Dave Ward permalink
    May 4, 2016 10:28 am

    “We could turn the country into N Korea tomorrow”

    Isn’t that the plan?

  18. dennisambler permalink
    May 4, 2016 11:21 am

    The source of Europe’s Mild Climate………..is not the Gulf Stream:

    “The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth”

    http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/issue.aspx?id=999&y=0&no=&content=true&page=2&css=print

    • John F. Hultquist permalink
      May 4, 2016 3:30 pm

      Dennis, thanks for the link. I likely would have missed this.
      ~~~~~~

      One can look at satellite images of the Gulf Stream, such as …

      … and note the warmth has mostly gone away by the time the flow is at a longitude south of the eastern edge of Newfoundland. I have occasionally pointed this out to folks and, I think to avoid cognitive dissonance, they ignore what their “lying” eyes show them.

  19. May 4, 2016 12:53 pm

    The sad fact that this exposes is that professors and “scientists” have become tools of the meja and have lost their traditional non-political objectivity. The meja love any “scientist” claiming doom and “professors” even more.

    Hope that someone can send him Paul’s analysis to comment on. While the comments on his worthiness may be a bit harsh, surely he will see that uninformed opinions have to be given with due care.

  20. John Palmer permalink
    May 4, 2016 6:48 pm

    He might think of a new career as a merchant banker…. oh, sorry, he is one already!
    (sorry – a London joke).

  21. Stonyground permalink
    May 6, 2016 11:28 am

    Electrify the railways and force everyone to drive an electric car and then use windmills and solar panels to generate electricity, yeah that’ll work.

  22. May 16, 2016 11:10 am

    Can I found any other information about this subject in other languages?

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