UAH & ENSO Update – April 2016
By Paul Homewood
UAH have got their figures out for April, and they show a small drop from March.
Roy Spencer comments:
I expect average cooling to continue throughout the year as El Nino weakens and is replaced with La Nina, now expected by mid-summer or early fall. Nevertheless, 2016 could still end up as a record warm year in the satellite record…it all depends upon how fast the warmth from the El Nino dissipates and La Nina sets in.
Given not only the intensity but also the duration of the current El Nino, we would certainly expect to see temperatures near to those of 1998.
Although this El Nino has not peaked as high as 1997/8’s, it began earlier in the cycle and has lasted longer so far. As a result, temperatures began the year at an elevated level.
However, the 1998 El Nino restrengthened in February, and did not really decline until June. As a result, temperatures remained high until October.
We already know that current El Nino conditions have been rapidly weakening since February. Because of time lags, this won’t really impact temperatures until the summer.