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UAH & ENSO Update – April 2016

May 3, 2016

By Paul Homewood  

 

UAH_LT_1979_thru_April_2016_v6-550x318

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

 

UAH have got their figures out for April, and they show a small drop from March.

Roy Spencer comments:

 

I expect average cooling to continue throughout the year as El Nino weakens and is replaced with La Nina, now expected by mid-summer or early fall. Nevertheless, 2016 could still end up as a record warm year in the satellite record…it all depends upon how fast the warmth from the El Nino dissipates and La Nina sets in.

 

Given not only the intensity but also the duration of the current El Nino, we would certainly expect to see temperatures near to those of 1998.

 

ts.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

Although this El Nino has not peaked as high as 1997/8’s, it began earlier in the cycle and has lasted longer so far. As a result, temperatures began the year at an elevated level.

 

image

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html 

 

However, the 1998 El Nino restrengthened in February, and did not really decline until June. As a result, temperatures remained high until October.

We already know that current El Nino conditions have been rapidly weakening since February. Because of time lags, this won’t really impact temperatures until the summer.

 

image

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/

4 Comments leave one →
  1. dave permalink
    May 3, 2016 11:43 am

    “…won’t really impact temperatures until the summer…”

    The “global 2-meter anomaly” from Maue came down sharply at the end of April and it is still down at the beginning of May. It does move around a lot, of course, but it is suggestive.

  2. Broadlands permalink
    May 3, 2016 12:31 pm

    NOAA has not posted their three-month Feb-Mar-Apr. value yet. On a seasonal year basis, the 2015 ENSO tied the 1997-98 event, did it not?

  3. May 3, 2016 6:53 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

    • dave permalink
      May 5, 2016 9:50 am

      RSS has issued an April figure for global LTT although it is hard to see on their web-site as they haven’t updated their chart. It is DOWN by another tenth of a degree C. Hardly amazing, as the El Nino is in a terminal state.

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