Analysis Of February CET
By Paul Homewood
I looked at DECC’s statistics on thermal growing seasons earlier, which suggested that seasons were growing longer, principally because of the earlier onset of spring. On average, it appears that the season tends to run from mid Feb to mid Nov.
Remember that the definition of a growing season is:
Earlier analysis of mine suggests that springs have become warmer in the last three decades mainly because the really cold days have become less frequent, rather than all days getting warmer, or there being more extremely warm days.
I wondered therefore whether the same applies to February temperatures, so I have done a couple of tests, using CET means.
First, I have looked at the difference between the high and low daily means for each February. As we can see, the gap between the two has been shrinking, when compared to the years prior to 1960.
This could, of course, mean either that lows are increasing or that highs are reducing (or both). Nevertheless, it is significant that temperatures appear to be less volatile these days. (We are often told that the opposite is the case!)
The second test is to plot the highs and lows for each year.
This shows that high temperatures have changed little over the years. In contrast, we see that there is a clear upward trend in the lowest temperatures, something that tallies with my findings for March and April.
What has caused this change is another matter. But it is hard to argue that less volatile temperatures, combined with an absence of really cold days, is not beneficial.