Skip to content

Will The UK Sizzle This Summer?

May 28, 2016
tags:

By Paul Homewood  

 

image

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/uk-weather-britain-to-sizzle-in-summer-highs-of-33c—but-floodi/

 

And in the red corner, we have the met men:

 

Britain is due to sizzle this summer with highs of 33C (91F), but forecasters say hurricanes threaten to bring floods during the August school holidays due to the La Niña weather phenomenon.

The Met Office‘s long-range forecast says the UK should expect hotter-than-normal temperatures over the next three months.

The upbeat forecast will give a welcome boost to preparations for the Queen’s 90th birthday parade on June 11, Glastonbury from June 22 to 26, Wimbledon from June 27 to July 10 and the start of school summer holidays.

The top temperatures are not expected to beat last year’s record high of 36.7C, but bookmaker Ladbrokes has nevertheless cut odds of summer being the hottest for more than a century to 3/1……………….

A Met Office forecaster said, the three-month forecast said: "For May-July, above-average temperatures are slightly more probable than below-average.

"El Nino is ranked amongst the strongest on record. Sea-surface temperatures in the south and west North Atlantic are above-average, while in the north and east are below-average.

"This increases the probability of above-average pressure, associated with above-average temperatures."

But the Met Office reported hints of wetter-than-usual conditions and warned of wet and windy Atlantic low pressure, which often stems from tropical weather systems.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/uk-weather-britain-to-sizzle-in-summer-highs-of-33c—but-floodi/

 

And in the blue corner, we have amateur climatologist, David King:

 

image

Red sky at night, shepherds’ delight. Rain before seven, fine by eleven…

These sayings may not represent an exact science, yet many people still set store by them. Using nature and traditional methods of divining the weather, these sayings have endured because they are surprisingly reliable, and often more on the money than the Met Office’s predictions.

Which is why, last week, when our national weather service forecast that Britain would sizzle this summer, amateur climatologist David King rolled his eyes.

“I cannot agree with the Met Office’s prediction that we will see temperatures as high as 33 degrees this summer,” says 76-year old King, a retired Metropolitan Police constable who ‘reads’ plants, animals and the British countryside to forecast upcoming weather patterns.

“I instead predict that June will be a wet and windy month, and we will only see the hotter weather arrive in the last two weeks of July. And, whilst it might get to 33 degrees then – anything is possible! – I’d say that perhaps 30 would be a better guess.”

King, who acquired and honed his traditional methods of natural weather forecasting over a period of eight years, was once a member of the Royal Meteorological Society, where his interest in alternative climatology was often ridiculed.

“I used to take a lot of stick,” says King, “but my methods give me 90 per cent accuracy.

“Occasionally I even hit 100 per cent,” the climatologist continues, “and get everything completely right. And that’s great, proving that the old ways can beat the technology of the day – much to the chagrin of experts!

“I gathered my skills by interviewing farmers in country pubs of the south east for around eight years. I was stationed in the relatively rural borough of Kenley in South London, and I’d estimate that I talked to almost 800 farmers and thatchers and others who work outdoors about these tips and tricks and old wives’ tales.

“But I’ve knocked thousands of techniques down to my current arsenal of tried and tested, reliable methods to predict the weather. And that’s how I know what’s really going to happen this summer!”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/meet-the-amateur-climatologist-who-reads-nature-to-predict-the-w/

 

 

I might as well add my twopennorth.

Dry, sunny conditions for the next couple of weeks, but because of cold Atlantic waters, temperatures will remain unexceptional. Jet stream forecasts suggest a wet and windy spell mid-June.

Thereafter, I suspect dry, sunny, but relatively cool conditions will dominate. Forget about anything like a record hot summer.

9 Comments leave one →
  1. May 28, 2016 6:01 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

  2. May 28, 2016 6:22 pm

    An anecdote about human ability to anticipate weather. I had occasion of working with the Cree aboriginals living in Northern Quebec. Their traditional pursuits involved living off the land by hunting, trapping, fishing and food gathering. Families would leave the summer camping place in Autumn with some sugar and tea from the Hudson’s Bay post, and return 6-7 months later with some pelts to trade.

    With the changes into settlements and rising populations, it became evident that the territory could not support everyone by means of hunting and trapping. Families had to decide whether a young child would enter school at age six, or continue to winter with the family on the trap line. The choice is irreversible, since the sensitivity to weather and movements of game depends on a lifetime of experience in the wild. Once committed to classroom education, the traditional way of life is closed.

  3. May 28, 2016 7:03 pm

    I would agree, with you. The Met are fully in thrall to CAGW and if the other guy believes nuts and birds can forecast the weather I feel sorry for him too.

  4. manicbeancounter permalink
    May 29, 2016 12:37 am

    Ladbrokes will cut the odds based on the hype. If the “expert” belief is of near record temperatures then the bookies will not need to give long odds on record temperatures occurring.
    The bookies only express popular sentiment, which is often based on less than less-than-perfect knowledge of the real world. For a likely event the bookies odds are less than the objective Bayesian probability of the event occurring. The bookies have to make a profit. For very unlikely events occurring – such as the Monster Raving Looney Party candidate winning a by-election – the odds are shorter than the objective Bayesian probability of the event occurring. You may only get 1000 to 1, when the real chances are less than 10000 to 1. The bookies give the better odds to attract the punters.
    But collective sentiment can be wrong. Leicester City in early August 2015 were given 5000 to 1 odds of winning the Premier League. Objective Bayesian probability would have been a much lesser chance. But 5000 to 1 was sufficient to attract the wild-eyed dreamers. Alternatively, if you look at the betting odds on a Premier League match, the sum of the odds for a side winning, drawing or losing are far greater than 1. Bet a pound on each on all the 38 matches in a season and your average return will be about half the stake.
    The small minority of gamblers who beat the odds are those who look beyond the common sentiment, understanding the difference between the common sentiment and a more objective Bayesian probability. Where they diverge there are profits to be made from gambling. On the basis that the Met Office have been persistently alarmist over the past decade, I would bet that the summer will be less warm and less wet than they predict. Whether the difference is worth betting on is another matter. As I do not like gambling I would not suggest anyone wastes money on it. But I would suggest that people track predictions/forecasts against out turns to assess the competency in understanding of weather patterns and climate change.

  5. clipe permalink
    May 29, 2016 2:15 am

    .490 batting average is excellent for baseball.

    http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=sfe1t_s&bc=det

  6. Gamecock permalink
    May 29, 2016 12:09 pm

    Why are we getting weather forecasts from a climatologist? Does being an amateur climatologist pay more than being an amateur meteorologist?

  7. May 29, 2016 3:47 pm

    ‘Since we already have 5,500 of them, the RSPB would thus be happy to see 25,000 more littering our countryside.’

    Say 300 bird deaths per turbine per year, that’s over 9 million dead birds a year in the UK alone.

    What does the P in RSPB stand for, again?

  8. Andrew Duffin permalink
    May 30, 2016 12:04 pm

    Remind me again, how many times have the Met Office, blinded by their devotion to the cause, predicted a “barbecue summer”, only for the usual disappointing, wet, two-fine-days-and-a-thunderstorm season to ensue? You’d think they would give up, or at least be a little more circumspect; maybe they’re hoping to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

    As for the old guy with his birds and bees, or whatever it is, I imagine such things can probably give a pretty clear picture of what the weather’s been like over the last few months, including perhaps the previous growing and blossoming seasons, so extrapolation might occasionally work not too badly. Otherwise, it’s just luck, isn’t it.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: