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A Sizzling Summer?

July 4, 2016
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By Paul Homewood

 

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https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/05/28/will-the-uk-sizzle-this-summer/

 

Readers may recall the battle of the weather forecasters a month ago.

While the Met Office “experts” forecast we could be sizzling in 33C temperatures this summer, amateur weatherman, David King, who uses nature to arrive at his forecasts, came to a much different conclusion:

 

I cannot agree with the Met Office’s prediction that we will see temperatures as high as 33 degrees this summer,” says 76-year old King, a retired Metropolitan Police constable who ‘reads’ plants, animals and the British countryside to forecast upcoming weather patterns.

“I instead predict that June will be a wet and windy month, and we will only see the hotter weather arrive in the last two weeks of July. And, whilst it might get to 33 degrees then – anything is possible! – I’d say that perhaps 30 would be a better guess.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/meet-the-amateur-climatologist-who-reads-nature-to-predict-the-w/

 

One month into the contest, it appears to be Mr King who is romping ahead.

 

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmax/date/England.txt

 

Maximum temperatures for June of 18.8C in England were unremarkable, tieing as 42nd warmest on record since 1910, tied with the likes of 1910 and 1936. The 1981-2010 average for June is 18.6C.

   

Daily maximum temperatures in Central England briefly reached 24.8C on the 6th, but for most of the month were below average.   

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

  

Rainfall was also above average, as Mr King predicted, as the Met Office confirm:

 

At the start of June, Britain’s weather was dry and settled, but often cloudy away from sheltered western areas, with north-easterly winds bringing low cloud in from the North Sea. Showers and thunderstorms increasingly broke out inland after the 5th, although there was further warm sunny weather at times, particularly in the west. From the 10th onwards, the weather was generally unsettled, wet and cloudy with low pressure often in charge. There were also thundery downpours at times, and heavy rain and thunderstorms caused significant disruption in the south-east on the 23rd.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

Without wanting to blow my own trumpet, my own forecast at the time on May 28th was remarkably prescient!

Dry, sunny conditions for the next couple of weeks, but because of cold Atlantic waters, temperatures will remain unexceptional. Jet stream forecasts suggest a wet and windy spell mid-June.

Thereafter, I suspect dry, sunny, but relatively cool conditions will dominate. Forget about anything like a record hot summer.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/05/28/will-the-uk-sizzle-this-summer/

 

Of course, there are still two months to go, and it would be rare if there was not a week or two of hot weather somewhere down the line. However, there is no sign of any unusually hot weather on its way, according to the Met Office 3-month forecast:

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

10 Comments leave one →
  1. July 4, 2016 8:37 pm

    ‘Taps aff: Scotland set for the hottest summer in 40 years as weather system signals three months of sunshine’ – 25th May report
    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/taps-aff-scotland-set-hottest-8042930

    Another turkey. Struggling to reach mid-teens here in SW Scotland this week.

  2. July 4, 2016 10:26 pm

    grammar I think
    “Maximum temperatures for June of 18.8C in England were an unremarkable”
    means
    A June monthly average of 18.8C for daily maximum temperatures is unremarkable.

  3. Mick J permalink
    July 4, 2016 10:45 pm

    The other day thought I would look to see what the METO had forecast. Their blog on the subject is amusing, drifts to and fro covering their bases. The comments sum it up.🙂

    https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/05/31/will-summer-be-a-washout-or-a-scorcher/

  4. tom0mason permalink
    July 5, 2016 2:55 am

    The hottest June evahh! Surely ?

  5. RAH permalink
    July 5, 2016 6:23 am

    I guess this is will be an example of what happens when one puts full trust and faith in computer models and regurgitates the results they spit out without applying the human touch.

    • July 5, 2016 9:05 am

      The problems with the models will only start when they install computers capable of learning. Even the tradebots that market traders use are not autonomous because they follow rules set by humans. Likewise, climatebots use algorithms created by fallible humans. I get peed off enough when I play a computer game against a bot and it’s winning. Imagine being a met office scientist and your computer is telling you that your parameters are bs.What kind of fantasy computer game are these guys playing, anyway?

  6. July 5, 2016 9:22 am

    Why June seemed cold to us but Met Office say 0.9C warmer
    The previous report on June 28th was obviously preliminary, but yesterday there was a new June report
    ..seems from their map graphic that the west side got the warmth petering out towards the east
    (maybe they cheated aswell somehow but I don’t follow the Met O)

    I see they have a new 1976 handy summary page, I guess they got it ready hoping to compare this years ‘coming’ heatwave to then

  7. July 5, 2016 10:22 am

    sack em all & use the dosh saved for a street party to celebrate Brexit.. lol
    might need some big brollies though..

  8. July 5, 2016 9:08 pm

    Last two days frost forecast in Scotland-BBC weather.

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