Who Is Lying? John Holdren, Jennifer Francis, Or NOAA?
By Paul Homewood
We doubtlessly all remember John Holdren’s claim, a couple of years ago, that a warming Arctic was responsible for creating a “wavy” polar jet stream (by which he means meridional, as opposed to zonal). This in turn was leading to more extreme weather in mid latitudes, in particular, extremely cold winters in the US.
It’s perhaps time then to run an up to date check on what has actually been happening.
Below are the charts of winter temperatures for the Northeast and Upper Midwest, as provided by NOAA. These are the two regions where John Holdren’s “extreme cold” would most obviously appear:
Now I should start by pointing out that these graphs are based on NOAA’s heavily doctored data. But as they stand, it is plain to see that in neither region have recent winters been in any way unusually cold. Even the winter of 2013/14, which Holdren specifically refers to in his video, turns out to be far from unprecedented.
We can also see that North American snow extent in winter has been running at similar levels to the past.
Now, of course, it may that Holdren is right in claiming that US winters are getting colder, in which case NOAA’s adjusted figures are wrong. If this is so, he would no doubt feel it appropriate to admit this to the public, and institute an immediate inquiry into NOAA’s malfeasance.
But I would not hold my breath!
Francis’ paper, Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, gave one particular example of this “extreme weather”, “freezing conditions in Florida during winter 2010–11”.
As we can see, the winter of 2010/11 was not unusually cold in Florida, and many winters had been as cold or colder in the past.
OK, average winter temperatures don’t necessarily tell you everything about the extremes within the season, but USHCN have a tool which shows the number of daily record temperatures, both highs and lows, and including ties, that have occurred each decade across the US.
If we look at the long running USHCN station at St Leo in Florida, we find that there were many more record winter lows set in earlier decades, particularly the 1950s through 1980s. It is also noticeable that the last decade is not dissimilar to the 1910s and 20s, and also that the 1940s appear to be the mildest.
Whichever way we look at it, we are being conned. Either NOAA’s figures are correct and Holdren and Francis are lying through their teeth, or NOAA’s figures are fraudulently adjusted.
Or maybe both!