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Antarctic Peninsula Has Been Cooling For Almost 20 Years, Scientists Confirm

July 21, 2016
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By Paul Homewood 

 

From the “When it warms, it’s climate change; but when it cools, it’s natural variability” Dept:

 

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http://www.thegwpf.com/antarctic-has-been-cooling-for-almost-20-years-scientists-confirm/

 

One of the big climate lies is that the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming places on Earth. (The key word here is “IS”)

This naturally leads on to propagation of the melting glaciers scare.

As I have shown before, for instance here, temperatures rose there from the time when we started measuring temperatures in the 1950s till the 1980s. However, since then temperatures have stopped rising.

Now, a new study by researchers from the British Antarctic Survey confirm that temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have actually been falling since the late 1990s.

This is the press release from Science Daily: 

 

 

            

The rapid warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, which occurred from the early-1950s to the late 1990s, has paused. Stabilisation of the ozone hole along with natural climate variability were significant in bringing about the change. Together these influences have now caused the peninsula to enter a temporary cooling phase. Temperatures remain higher than measured during the middle of the 20th Century and glacial retreat is still taking place. However, scientists predict that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise at the current rate, temperatures will increase across the Antarctic Peninsula by several degrees Centigrade by the end of this century.

Reporting this week in the journal Nature researchers from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) describe how the stabilisation of the ozone hole and changing wind patterns has driven a regional cooling phase that is temporarily masking the warming influence of greenhouse gases.

Lead author, Professor John Turner of British Antarctic Survey says: "The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most challenging places on Earth on which to identify the causes of decade-to-decade temperature changes. The Antarctic Peninsula climate system shows large natural variations, which can overwhelm the signals of human-induced global warming. In recent years, there has been an international research effort to explain what’s happening in the region and to understand the implications for the Antarctic environment and future sea-level rise.

"Our study highlights the complexity and difficulty of attributing effect to cause. The ozone hole, sea-ice and westerly winds have been significant in influencing regional climate change in recent years. Even in a generally warming world, over the next couple of decades, temperatures in this region may go up or down, but our models predict that in the longer term greenhouse gases will lead to an increase in temperatures by the end of the 21st Century."

A wide range of climate data was analysed for this study, including atmospheric circulation fields, sea-ice records, ocean surface temperatures and meteorological observations from six Antarctic Peninsula research stations with near-continuous records extending back to the 1950s.

During the Twentieth Century, Antarctic Peninsula temperatures increased by up to 0.5? C per decade, helping to trigger the dramatic collapse of ice shelves and causing many glaciers to retreat. Whilst there was a decrease in sea ice extent around the Antarctic Peninsula towards the end of the last century it has been increasing in recent years, particularly in the north-east of the region. The cold easterly winds observed in the 21st Century have had a greater impact on the region because the sea ice has prevented ocean heat from entering the atmosphere.

To set their observations in a longer-term context, the research team looked at a 2,000 year climate reconstruction using the chemical signals in ice cores. As previously reported, analysis suggests that peninsula warming over the whole twentieth century was unusual, but not unprecedented in the context of the past 2,000 years. The reconstruction shows a warming starting in the 1920s, which is consistent with the warming trends recorded by the meteorological stations. The ice core records also reveal periods of warming and cooling over the last several centuries that were comparable to those observed in the post-1950s instrumental record. This highlights the large natural variability of temperatures in this region of Antarctica that has influenced more recent climate changes.

Dr Robert Mulvaney, is a leading ice core researcher at British Antarctic Survey. He says: "Meteorological observations from the Antarctic Peninsula research stations only cover the last 60 years or so. If we are to get a better idea of the long-term trend we need to look back in time. The ice core record helps us see how the climate evolves over the longer term. We can also look at the levels of carbon dioxide and other chemicals that were in the atmosphere and compare them with observations from today."

In the last month, the levels of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere above Antarctica rose past the 400 parts per million milestone, contrasting with the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million recorded in Antarctic ice cores. Climate model simulations predict that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase at currently projected rates their warming effect will dominate over natural variability (and the cooling effect associated with recovering ozone levels) and there will be a warming of several degrees across the region by the end of this century.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/07/160720135641.htm

 

There are, of course, the usual global warming caveats. How the recent cooling is due to natural variation, why warming will resume in the long run, etc.

However, there is strong evidence that the warming seen prior to the 1990s was itself due to natural variation. As Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University, explained in 2014, the warming was the result of changing wind patterns. (See here.)

Now, note, changing wind patterns are being blamed for a colder climate!

 

  

But let’s step back a moment.

We know that temperatures rose for about three decades starting in the 1950s, when scientists began recording them. And we are bilthely assured that this was because of global warming. Yet we have no data for the decades prior to then, so we simply don’t know whether we simply seeing part of a cycle.

It is good, therefore, to see this statement:

 

To set their observations in a longer-term context, the research team looked at a 2,000 year climate reconstruction using the chemical signals in ice cores. As previously reported, analysis suggests that peninsula warming over the whole twentieth century was unusual, but not unprecedented in the context of the past 2,000 years. The reconstruction shows a warming starting in the 1920s, which is consistent with the warming trends recorded by the meteorological stations. The ice core records also reveal periods of warming and cooling over the last several centuries that were comparable to those observed in the post-1950s instrumental record. This highlights the large natural variability of temperatures in this region of Antarctica that has influenced more recent climate changes.

 

In other words, there is no evidence that the period of warming, which has now stopped, is anything other than a perfectly natural phenomenon.

9 Comments leave one →
  1. A C Osborn permalink
    July 21, 2016 8:03 pm

    Just like everywhere else then.

  2. Bruce of Newcastle permalink
    July 21, 2016 9:47 pm

    The Antarctic Peninsula sticks out into the Pacific Ocean, which undergoes a cyclic ~60 year warming and cooling. The PDO peaked in the mid 1990’s and has been in its cooling phase since.

    So of course the Peninsula has been cooling for 20 years. So has the Pacific.

    The climateers can’t admit the ~60 year cycle because as soon as they do that they halve the derived ECS in their models, since the same cycle is in the temperature record and caused about 0.3 C of temporary temperature rise in the century the IPCC uses to validate their models. And if ECS is half their value CO2 is harmless.

  3. Green Sand permalink
    July 21, 2016 10:50 pm

    Turney et al 2014?

  4. July 22, 2016 12:41 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  5. July 22, 2016 9:00 am

    Reblogged this on Climatism.

  6. July 22, 2016 12:19 pm

    Calling Michael Mann, calling Michael Mann: “we need to have you rid the record of the cooling and leave only the warming!” Oh, that’s right, he is now devoting his time to writing platform policy for the Democrat National Convention.

  7. avro607 permalink
    July 23, 2016 8:33 pm

    When these people waffle on about “warming influences of greenhouse gases”,it becomes difficult to assign any credibility to the rest of their research.

  8. July 23, 2016 9:52 pm

    Its always Global Warming, regardless if its Warming, Cooling, Snowing, Raining, suffering from a draught or ducking Hurricanes, Tornadoes. or just George Bush; that the beauty of the whole concept. You’re never wrong!

  9. catweazle666 permalink
    July 24, 2016 12:40 am

    So the Antarctic Peninsula has been cooling for two decades has it?

    Fascinating…

    The Warming of Antarctica:
    A Citadel of Ice Begins to Melt
    The fringes of the coldest continent are starting to feel the heat, with the northern Antarctic Peninsula warming faster than virtually any place on Earth. These rapidly rising temperatures represent the first breach in the enormous frozen dome that holds 90 percent of the world’s ice.

    http://e360.yale.edu/feature/the_warming_of_antarctica_a_citadel_of_ice_begins_to_melt/2342/

    It’s official: there is nowhere left to hide from global warming. The notion that Antarctica is the last continent not to be heating up because of climate change is dead, according to a new study.

    The results suggest that the southernmost continent is warming roughly as fast as the rest of the planet. They overturn previous suggestions that only the Antarctic peninsula, which stretches points north towards South America, was heating up while the continent’s interior cooled.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16460-even-antarctica-is-now-feeling-the-heat-of-climate-change/

    And here’s the IPCC…

    Since records began, 50 years ago, mean annual temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have risen rapidly; >2.5°C at Vernadsky (formerly Faraday) Station (Turner et al., 2005). On the west coast, warming has been much slower in summer and spring than in winter or autumn, but has been sufficient to raise the number of positive-degree-days by 74% (Vaughan et al., 2003), and the resulting increase in melt has caused dramatic impacts on the Antarctic Peninsula environment, and its ecology.

    https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch15s15-6-3.html

    Don’t you just LOVE this settled “science”?

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